非洲财政部长伊诺克·戈东格瓦纳预计将于周三表明该国对财政纪律的承诺，其债务占GDP的比率将在二十多年来首次下降 — — 这可能为信用评级升级铺平道路，最早可能在下个月实现。
African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is expected to signal the country’s commitment to fiscal discipline on Wednesday, with its debt-to-GDP ratio set to decline for the first time in more than two decades — potentially paving the way for a credit-rating upgrade as soon as next month.
在彭博社调查的11位经济学家中，包括美国银行公司、摩根士丹利、法国巴黎银行SA和老互惠有限公司的经济学家在内的4人预计将在今年年底前实现升级，其余7人则认为升级将在2027年出现。
Four of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, including those at Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas SA and Old Mutual Ltd., anticipate an upgrade by year-end, while the rest see it coming in 2027.
穆迪评级和标普全球评级的下次评审定于11月27日进行，而惠誉评级的评审定于12月11日。
Moody’s Ratings’ and S&P Global Ratings’ next reviews are scheduled for Nov. 27, and Fitch Ratings’ for Dec. 11.
“我们认为穆迪最有可能采取行动，可能将评级上调至Ba1，而标普上调至BB+仍存在较大不确定性，”美国银行撒哈拉以南非洲经济学家塔通加·鲁西克表示。他补充说，惠誉在6月份完成升级后目前没有急于行动的意愿。
“We view Moody’s as the most likely agency to act, with a potential upgrade to Ba1, while an S&P upgrade to BB+ remains a closer call,” Tatonga Rusike, BofA’s sub-Saharan Africa economist, said. Fitch is in no rush after its upgrade in June, he said.
穆迪上周表示，非洲最大的经济体有望实现自2009年以来的首次评级升级，前提是其财政表现继续改善。
Moody’s said last week Africa’s largest economy is heading for its first upgrade by the company since 2009, provided its fiscal performance continues to improve.
摩根士丹利预计标普将在下个月将南非的评级上调至BB+，而穆迪则可能在2027年初进行上调。两家评级机构目前均将南非列为正面展望，任一方的升级都将使该国的评级提升至投资级以下一档，使其有望摆脱垃圾评级状态。
Morgan Stanley expects S&P to raise South Africa’s rating to BB+ next month and Moody’s in early 2027. Both rating companies have South Africa on positive outlook, and an upgrade by either would lift the country to one notch below investment grade, putting it on the path to exit junk status.
英仕曼财富与投资国际认为该国在两年内重新获得投资级信用评级的可能性超过50%，而美国银行则预计这一目标将在2029年前实现。鲁西克表示，评级机构需要看到“财政指标的持续改善”的证据，包括赤字降低、政府债务下降以及趋势增长更加稳固。
Investec Wealth & Investment International sees a greater than 50% chance the country regains its investment-grade credit rating within two years and BofA expects it to do so before 2029. Rating companies will need evidence of “a durable improvement in fiscal metrics, including lower deficits, falling government debt and firmer trend growth,” Rusike said.
当戈东格瓦纳于周三下午2点在开普敦发表中期财政政策声明时，他预计将展示国家财政部成功击败其2026-27财年合并预算赤字占GDP的4%的预测，彭博社调查的经济学家估计实际赤字将为3.8%。
When Godongwana delivers his medium-term budget policy statement at 2 p.m. in Cape Town on Wednesday, he’s expected to show the National Treasury beating its consolidated budget-deficit forecast of 4% of GDP for 2026-27, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimating a shortfall of 3.8%.
他们还预测财政部已实现其在截至2026年3月的财政年度内稳定债务的目标。债务占GDP的比率预计将在本财政年度降至77.5%，略慢于财政部预测的降至77.3%。
They also project the Treasury to have met its goal of stabilizing debt in the year through March 2026. The debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to decline to 77.5% this fiscal year, slightly slower than the Treasury’s projected drop to 77.3%.
“我们目前处于一个公共财政状况良好的位置，”老牌互惠集团经济研究主管Keabetswe Mojapelo表示。
“We are in a position where we have our public finances in order,” Keabetswe Mojapelo, head of economic research at Old Mutual, said.
南非经济在很大程度上抵御了伊朗和乌克兰战争的冲击，尽管全球不确定性加剧，政府仍保持了支出的克制。这种韧性，加上引入财政锚点的计划，正在为评级上调提供更有力的依据。
South Africa’s economy has largely withstood the fallout from the wars in Iran and Ukraine, while the government has kept spending in check despite heightened global uncertainty. That resilience, together with plans to introduce a fiscal anchor, is strengthening the case for a rating upgrade.
“从财政角度来看，我们成功应对了这一轮冲击，这在南非是前所未有的，因为通常这类冲击会让我们陷入更不利的境地，”Mojapelo说。“我们有两家评级机构给予了积极展望，从财政角度来看，即使在管理这些意外之财时，我也看不出我们会变得更糟。”
“We’ve managed to weather this current shock quite well from a fiscal perspective and this is really unprecedented on the South African side because normally these kinds of shocks put us in a worse off position,” Mojapelo said. “We have two rating agencies that have put us on a positive outlook and for the most part I don’t see how from a fiscal perspective we get any worse off, even in managing these windfalls.”