非洲财政部长预计将在周三的中期预算中提出改善的财政前景，收入意外之财将推动恢复投资级信用评级的努力。
Africa's finance minister is expected to present an improved fiscal outlook in his mid-term budget on Wednesday, with a revenue windfall bolstering a push to regain an investment-grade credit rating.
但创纪录的燃油价格、疲弱的增长以及在11月4日地方政府选举前的支出压力可能限制财政部能够节省的意外之财数额。
But record fuel prices, weak growth and pressure to spend ahead of November 4 local government elections could limit how much of the windfall the Treasury saves.
非洲最工业化的经济体仍陷入低增长泥潭，国际货币基金组织预测今年增长仅为1%。投资者将关注比勒陀利亚是否利用更强劲的税收来削减债务并巩固财政可信度，还是增加支出。
Africa's most industrialised economy remains stuck in a low-growth rut, with the IMF forecasting growth of just 1% this year. Investors will be watching whether Pretoria uses stronger tax receipts to cut debt and shore up fiscal credibility or spends more.
法国巴黎银行表示，财政年度前五个月企业税收入增长22.8%，受强劲矿业利润推动。增值税收入增长9.1%，个人所得税收入增长8.4%。
Corporate tax receipts jumped 22.8% in the first five months of the fiscal year, driven by strong mining profits, BNP Paribas said. VAT receipts rose 9.1% and personal income tax 8.4%.
“我们认为，相较于2月的估计，收入将上调超过500亿兰特，”法国巴黎银行市场360部CEEMEA经济学主管杰弗里·舒尔茨对路透社表示。高盛估计收入可能超过财政部预测400亿兰特。
"We believe that there's going to be a more than 50 billion rand upward revision to revenue estimates relative to February," Jeffrey Schultz, head of CEEMEA economics at BNP Paribas Markets 360, told Reuters. Goldman Sachs estimates revenue could beat Treasury projections by 40 billion rand.
但两家银行均预计财政部只会将100亿至200亿兰特的意外之财计入预算。他们预计本财政年度的主要预算赤字将从2月的3.7%目标收窄至国内生产总值的3.3%至3.6%。
But both banks expect the Treasury to factor in only 10 billion-20 billion rand of the windfall. They see the main budget deficit narrowing to 3.3%-3.6% of GDP this fiscal year from February's 3.7% target.
法国巴黎银行预计，债务与国内生产总值的比率将在2025年达到78.2%的峰值后，在中期内下降——这是多年债务上升压缩政府支出空间后的重要转折。
BNP expects debt-to-GDP to fall over the medium term after peaking at 78.2% in 2025, an important shift after years in which rising debt has squeezed the government's room to spend.
财政部长伊诺克·戈东瓦纳还预计将公布一项正式财政锚的细节，旨在使政府借款和债务保持在可控范围内。高盛预计该框架将是“基于原则”的，而非固定的数值目标。
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is also expected to unveil details of a formal fiscal anchor aimed at keeping government borrowing and debt in check. Goldman expects the framework to be "principles-based" rather than a fixed numerical target.
穆迪副总裁埃文·沃尔曼表示，该机构将审查该锚的设计，包括“潜在的剔除条款”以及政府需要多快纠正任何偏离。
Moody's Vice President Evan Wohlmann said the agency would scrutinise the anchor's design, including "potential carve-outs" and how quickly the government would be required to correct any deviation.
高盛预计标普全球将在11月27日的评审中将南非的评级上调至BB+，低于投资级一档，并认为穆迪可能会上调评级，穆迪目前持有积极展望。BNP的舒尔茨表示，重返投资级的门槛更高。
Goldman expects S&P Global to raise South Africa's rating to BB+ at its November 27 review, one notch below investment grade, and sees a possible upgrade from Moody's, which has a positive outlook. BNP's Schultz said the hurdle for returning to investment grade was higher.
“在再次近期上调之后，门槛可能会略微提高，而这一门槛实际上来源于实现增长，”他说。
"The bar is probably a little bit higher beyond one more immediate upgrade, and that bar really comes from getting growth," he said.
财政改善面临逆风。受中东冲突推动油价突破每桶100美元影响，本月国内汽油价格首次突破每升30兰特，而增长依然疲弱。
The fiscal improvement faces headwinds. Inland petrol topped 30 rand a litre for the first time this month after the Middle East conflict pushed oil above $100 a barrel, while growth remains weak.