摩根士丹利预计，南非将在下周的预算中恢复为期三个月的燃油税减免措施，以缓冲消费者面临的油价飙升压力，并将公布备受期待的规则细节，以确保政府财政走上可持续道路。
Stanley expects South Africa to reinstate fuel-tax relief measures for three months to cushion consumers from surging oil prices in next week’s budget, along with details of a long-awaited rule to keep government finances on a sustainable path.
财政部长伊诺克·戈东瓦纳将于10月21日发表中期政策声明。摩根士丹利经济学家安德烈亚·马西亚在周二的研究报告中表示，预期的燃油税减免将于11月4日生效，预计成本为170亿兰特（约10亿美元）。
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is scheduled to deliver his mid-term policy statement on Oct. 21. The anticipated fuel-tax relief is expected to take effect from Nov. 4 at an estimated cost of 17 billion rand ($1 billion), Andrea Masia, economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note Tuesday.
若实施，摩根士丹利预测该措施将使其基准通胀预测下降0.5个百分点。此前该投行曾预测南非价格增速将在2026年底达到5.3%。马西亚表示，通胀放缓将降低南非储备银行进一步加息的可能性。
If implemented, Morgan Stanley forecasts the measure will shave half a percentage point off its baseline inflation forecast. The investment bank previously saw South African price growth at 5.3% by the end of 2026. Slower inflation would reduce the likelihood of further interest-rate increases by the South African Reserve Bank, according to Masia.
从尼日利亚到肯尼亚的非洲政府已陆续推出新措施，以缓冲燃油价格上涨。
African governments from Nigeria to Kenya have already added fresh measures to soften a rise in fuel prices.
今年4月至6月，政府曾因全球油价冲击推高国内燃油成本而向消费者提供临时减免。此后，汽油泵价已超过每升30兰特——约合每加仑6.89美元——增加了家庭预算和企业的压力。
The government provided temporary relief to consumers between April and June this year, as the global oil-price shock drove up domestic fuel costs. Pump prices for gasoline have since exceeded 30 rand a liter — about $6.89 per gallon — adding to pressure on household budgets and businesses.
上个月，由于中东冲突升级及俄乌战争持续导致能源价格飙升，推动国内汽油价格创历史新高，政策制定者将南非基准利率上调25个基点至7.25%。
Policymakers last month raised South Africa’s benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% as the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war caused energy prices to surge and pushed domestic gasoline prices to a record.
摩根士丹利表示，税收意外增长——尤其是来自黄金和铂族金属生产商的税收——很可能为恢复减免提供空间，而不会偏离财政紧缩目标。
Stronger-than-expected tax collections, particularly from gold and platinum-group metal producers, are likely to provide room for renewed relief without derailing fiscal consolidation, Morgan Stanley said.
该银行预计，即使考虑到额外的燃油税减免，本财政年度的总税收收入也将超过2月份预算估算约310亿兰特。它预测，合并预算赤字将缩小至占国内生产总值的3.6%，而财政部的预测为4%。
The bank expects gross tax revenue to exceed February’s budget estimates by about 31 billion rand this fiscal year, even after accounting for the additional fuel-levy relief. It forecasts the consolidated budget deficit narrowing to 3.6% of gross domestic product, compared with the Treasury’s 4% projection.
戈东瓦纳还预计将概述一项旨在稳定公共债务并提升投资者信心的正式财政规则。该框架预计将在2027-28年立法，摩根士丹利表示，投资者将倾向于可衡量的财政目标、独立监督以及纠正偏差的机制，而非纯粹基于原则的方法。
Godongwana is also expected to outline a formal fiscal rule aimed at stabilizing public debt and bolstering investor confidence. The framework is expected to be legislated in 2027-28, with Morgan Stanley saying investors would favor measurable fiscal targets, independent oversight and mechanisms to correct deviations rather than a purely principles-based approach.
财政前景的改善将有助于为主权信用评级升级铺平道路。摩根士丹利预计，标普全球评级将在11月27日将南非的评级上调一个档次至BB+，随后穆迪评级将在2027年初跟进。
The improving fiscal outlook will help pave the way for sovereign credit-rating upgrades. Morgan Stanley expects S&P Global Ratings to raise South Africa’s rating one notch to BB+ on Nov. 27, followed by Moody’s Ratings in early 2027.