根据天达财富与投资国际公司（Investec Wealth & Investment International）的说法，非洲很有可能在两年内重新获得其投资级信用评级，而下周的中期预算案可能会朝着这一目标迈出又一步。
Africa stands a good chance of regaining its investment-grade credit rating within two years and next week’s mid-term budget could take another step toward that goal, according to Investec Wealth & Investment International.
这家基金管理公司认为，在该国经济改革和财政纪律的推动下，南非在2028年之前恢复投资级评级的可能性超过50%。在经历多年被投资者冷落之后，这些改革和纪律已经扭转了市场情绪。
The fund manager sees a more than 50% chance the country will restore its investment grade rating by 2028, propelled by economic reforms and fiscal discipline that have shifted sentiment after years of being shunned by investors.
投资策略师奥萨吉福·马兹瓦伊（Osagyefo Mazwai）表示：“一份足够可信的中期预算政策声明可以支持穆迪评级公司（Moody’s Ratings）和标普全球评级公司（S&P Global Ratings）将其初始评级上调至投资级以下的一级。”“如果在2027年预算案和2027年中期预算政策声明中巩固这一进展，到2028年实现投资级评级将是可以实现的。”这两家评级公司目前对南非的主权信用评估均持正面展望。
“A sufficiently credible medium-term budget policy statement could support an initial move by Moody’s Ratings and S&P Global Ratings to one notch below investment grade” said investment strategist Osagyefo Mazwai. “If that progress is reinforced in the 2027 budget and 2027 MTBPS, an investment-grade rating by 2028 becomes achievable.”Both ratings companies already have South Africa’s credit assessment on a positive outlook.
财政部长埃诺赫·戈东瓜纳（Enoch Godongwana）将于10月21日发表中期预算更新，预计将在企业税收收入增加的背景下，显示该国基础财政盈余（衡量收入超过非利息支出的指标）持续增长。
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver the mid-term budget update on Oct. 21 and is expected to show continued growth in the country’s primary budget surplus – a gauge of how much revenue exceeds non-interest expenditure – amid stronger corporate tax receipts.
预计他还将详细阐述一个财政框架，以确保长期的预算纪律，将政府债务占国内生产总值的比例控制在合理范围内。
He’s also expected to lay out more details for a fiscal framework to ensure long-term budget discipline that keeps the ratio of government debt as a percentage of gross domestic product under control.
马兹瓦伊表示，中期预算“需要表明国家国库署致力于一个可信的财政锚，债务轨迹正果断地朝着减少债务占GDP比例的方向发展，并且债务服务成本已经见顶且能够下降”。
The mid-term budget “needs to show that National Treasury is committed to a credible fiscal anchor, that the debt trajectory is moving decisively toward debt-to-GDP reduction, and that debt-service costs have peaked and can decline,” Mazwai said.
马兹瓦伊说，信用违约互换利差表明，市场正预期南非的评级将迫近上调至投资级以下的一级。
Credit-default-swap spreads suggest that markets are anticipating imminent upgrades to one notch below investment grade, Mazwai said.
目前将南非评级定为Ba2（比投资级低两级）的穆迪本周早些时候表示，只要该国的财政表现继续改善，南非将迎来2009年以来的首次信用评级上调。
Moody’s, which now rates South Africa Ba2 — two notches below investment grade — said earlier this week that the country is headed for its first credit-rating upgrade since 2009, provided it’s fiscal performance continues to improve.
2020年，随着穆迪将其债务评估下调，南非遭遇了所有机构的垃圾级评级“大满贯”，25年来首次失去投资级评估。
The nation obtained a full house of junk ratings in 2020 when Moody’s Ratings downgraded its debt assessment, leaving it without an investment-grade assessment for the first time in 25 years.
最近一段时间，由于国库署成功将预算保持在正轨上，加之央行去年将通胀目标下调至3%（随后得到了戈东瓜纳的赞同，这表明了政府的支持），市场情绪有所回暖。
More recently, sentiment has been warmed by the Treasury’s success in keeping the budget on track and by the central bank lowering its inflation target to 3% last year, which was subsequently endorsed by Godongwana in a sign of government support.
在前总统雅各布·祖马（Jacob Zuma）执政近九年期间，过度支出导致十年间的投资人情绪翻篇，其任期充斥着腐败和管理不善。
That’s helped turn the page for investors after a decade of overspending under former President Jacob Zuma, who’s nearly nine years in office was marred by corruption and mismanagement.