在苏格兰民族党（SNP）于10月15日至17日在阿伯丁举行的年度大会上，场景仿佛回到了2014年——那一年苏格兰必须决定是否脱离英国的关键时刻。独立支持者在会场外挥舞着苏格兰国旗（Saltire）。大屏幕播放着伴随风笛声的视频，呼吁人们“选择苏格兰”。在会场入口处的巨型白板上，活动者们涂写着：“禁止核武器！对富人征税！不再容忍西敏斯特！”
At the annual gathering of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in Aberdeen on October 15th-17th it could have been 2014 again—that pivotal year when Scotland had to decide whether to leave the UK. Independence supporters waved their Saltires outside the hall. Big screens showed videos set to the sound of bagpipes, urging people to “Choose Scotland”. On a huge whiteboard by the hall’s entrance activists had daubed: “No nukes! Tax the rich! No more Westminster!”
然而，苏格兰民族党正在发生变化。在约翰·斯温尼的领导下，曾由尼古拉·斯特金领导的左翼政党正变得更为温和。高层人物如今强调一句曾被视为几乎是污点的表述：经济增长。
And yet the SNP is changing. Under John Swinney, the left-wing party once led by Nicola Sturgeon is becoming more moderate. Senior figures now stress a phrase once considered almost a slur: economic growth.
以石油和天然气为例。在斯特金时期，苏格兰民族党反对在北海进行钻探。2023年的一份草案政策对苏格兰水域的新勘探持“反对推定”立场；当西敏斯特的保守政府选择批准设得兰群岛海岸外的一个巨型油田（罗斯班克）时，斯特金谴责了这一决定。相比之下，斯温尼的政府则支持钻探。
Take oil and gas. Under Ms Sturgeon, the SNP opposed drilling in the North Sea. A draft policy in 2023 had a “presumption against” new exploration in Scottish waters; when the Conservative government in Westminster chose to approve a massive oilfield off the coast of Shetland (Rosebank), Ms Sturgeon condemned the decision. Mr Swinney’s government, in contrast, backs drilling.
数据中心曾是苏格兰民族党（SNP）可能反对的领域，但现在情况已经改变了。苏格兰的政府官员表示，苏格兰应该成为数据中心建设的“领导者”；因为苏格兰气候寒冷，因此冷却服务器所需的水量较少，这对数据中心运营商来说具有吸引力。当苏格兰绿党要求禁止新建数据中心时，苏格兰民族党表示反对。一位苏格兰民族党的消息人士称：“苏格兰仍然会建设数据中心。虽然独立运动中有一部分人会反对这一决定，但本届政府并不会改变这一立场。”企业也注意到了这一变化。
Data centres are another thing the SNP might once have taken against. Not now. Scottish ministers say Scotland should be a “leader” in them (developers like Scotland because its chilly weather means less water is needed to cool servers down). When the Scottish Greens demanded a ban on new data centres, the SNP said no. “Scotland will have data centres,” an SNP source says. “There is a section of the independence movement that will disagree with that, but that’s not where this government is going.”
该行业的游说者弗格斯·马奇（Fergus Mutch）回忆说，在斯特金（Sturgeon）执政期间，能源公司曾对苏格兰的能源政策感到担忧；但在斯温尼（Swinney）执政后，投资者们的信心明显增强了。一位房地产行业的游说者指出，经过近二十年的执政，苏格兰民族党终于为企业提供了他们一直渴望的“政策稳定性”。斯温尼给人的印象是“能够真正解决问题”，这无疑有助于提升企业的信心。
Businesses have noticed the shift. The Sturgeon era put the “frighteners up” energy companies, recalls Fergus Mutch, a lobbyist for the sector, but under Mr Swinney investors are now “more encouraged”. A housing lobbyist says the SNP, after nearly two decades in power, can give business what they crave from politicians: certainty. It helps that Mr Swinney looks like he can get results.
此外，唐纳德·特朗普在取消对苏格兰威士忌的10%关税时曾表示，斯温尼的游说活动对他的决策产生了重要影响。
When Donald Trump abolished his 10% tariffs on Scotch whisky he claimed Mr Swinney’s advocacy formed a “big part” of his thinking.
尽管如此，苏格兰民族党仍会提出一些看似疯狂的想法。斯温尼提出要对食品价格设置上限以缓解生活成本压力，但智库“财政研究协会”（Institute for Fiscal Studies）警告称此举可能导致食品供应短缺。当然，苏格兰独立的问题仍然没有被完全排除。尽管英国首相安迪·伯纳姆（Andy Burnham）已经明确表示不会再次举行独立公投，苏格兰民族党仍表示希望在2031年前再次就是否脱离英国举行公投。
The SNP still comes up with wacky ideas. Mr Swinney says he wants to introduce a cap on the price of food to ease the cost of living, a move which the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank, warns could lead to shortages. Scottish independence is also, of course, still on the table. The SNP says it wants a second referendum on leaving the UK by 2031 despite Andy Burnham, the prime minister, having ruled it out.
斯温尼在10月17日的大会演讲主要围绕这些令人愉快的内容展开。但他的政府正在发出更为清醒的声音。面对苏格兰民族党承诺与为其提供资金所需资金之间高达50亿英镑（67亿美元）的缺口，苏格兰部长们正在制定精简国家机构的计划。他们计划将苏格兰的14个国家卫生服务局合并为两个，并取消该国的32个议会，以设立六到十个地区当局。该党左翼人士对此并不满意，苏格兰民族党工会组织的全国秘书表达了“深切关切”。
Mr Swinney’s conference speech on October 17th centred on such feel-good stuff. But his government is making more sobering noises. Faced with a £5bn ($6.7bn) gap between the SNP’s commitments and the cash needed to fund them, Scottish ministers are drawing up plans to streamline the state. They are consolidating Scotland’s 14 NHS boards into two and scrapping the country’s 32 councils to make between six and ten regional authorities. Leftists in the party are not happy, and the national secretary of the SNP’s trade-union group expressed “profound concern”.
然而，苏格兰民族党如今面临的世界比以前更为严峻，必须适应这一现实。斯温尼是一名62岁的前管理顾问，看来正是带领该党走向新方向的合适人选。但不要指望他会大肆宣扬这一点。■
Yet the SNP now confronts a harsher world than before, and must adapt to that reality. Mr Swinney, a 62-year-old former management consultant, seems like just the leader to take the party in a new direction. But don’t expect him to shout about it. ■