最新气候报告警告称,加州生活方式将面临重大动荡。这些令人担忧的预测来自加州的气候变化评估报告,该报告分析了天气模式变化对美国人口最多州的影响。
Latest Climate Report Warns of Major Upheaval to California Way of Life The dire projections come from the state’s Climate Change Assessment, which analyzes the impacts of changing weather patterns on the nation’s most-populous state. In just a few decades, summers in California will not only be much hotter, but will also stretch for months longer.
在短短几十年内,加州的夏季不仅会变得更热,还会延长数月。洪水将变得更为广泛和极端。暴露在野火烟雾中将导致每年多死数千人。
Floods will become more widespread and extreme. Exposure to wildfire smoke will kill thousands more people every year. Those are the dire projections of California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment, a report produced by California every few years that analyzes the impacts of changing weather patterns on the nation’s most-populous state.
这些令人担忧的预测来自加州第五次气候变化评估报告,该报告由加州每隔几年发布一次,分析天气模式变化对美国人口最多州的影响。
The future laid out in the report, which was published on Monday, touches on familiar warnings: more wildfires, bigger storms, longer droughts.
该报告于周一发布,所描绘的未来涉及熟悉的警告:野火增多、风暴加剧、干旱延长。但它以令人不安的细节说明气候正在以何种速度被重塑,并揭示了对加州长期既定生活方式可能带来的重大动荡。
But it illustrates in unsettling detail just how quickly the climate is being reshaped, and reveals what is likely to be major upheaval to long-established ways of life in California. According to the report, average temperatures are likely to increase in California by about 4 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century.
根据报告,到本世纪中叶,加州的平均气温可能上升约4华氏度。报告显示,加州当前的变暖程度在过去一个世纪乃至过去千年中都是前所未有的。
Current warming in California is unprecedented compared with the past century and estimates for the past millennium, the report shows. More and more, warm weather will arrive in California earlier in the year and persist later, with summer conditions lasting for 135 days on average by the middle of the century, compared with an average of 90 days between 1981 and 2010, according to the report.
报告指出,随着气候变暖,暖天气将在一年中更早到达并持续更久,到本世纪中叶,夏季条件平均将持续135天,而1981年至2010年的平均仅为90天。这种夏季延长将产生广泛影响,包括火灾风险、旅游业、农业和野生动物。
That prolonged summer will have widespread impacts, including on fire risk, tourism, agriculture and wildlife. The warmer conditions will also mean a 40 percent reduction by midcentury in California’s snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, which feeds the state’s reservoirs.
报告还指出,变暖条件还将导致到本世纪中叶,加州内华达山脉的积雪量减少40%。原本以雪落下的降水将转为雨落,并立即成为地表径流。报告称,这将导致更严重的干旱。
What once fell as snow will instead fall as rain and immediately become runoff. This will lead to more severe droughts, according to the report. Many Californians have already lived through the beginnings of these trends.
许多加州居民早已亲身经历了这些气候变化的初期影响。今年,加州经历了有记录以来最温暖的八月;过去十年中,该州也发生了多起极具破坏性的火灾,其中去年发生在洛杉矶的野火是美国历史上损失最严重的自然灾害之一。
The state this year logged its warmest August on record. And several of the most destructive fires in state history have happened in the last decade, including the wildfires last year in Los Angeles that were among the costliest disasters in U.S. history.
这份评估报告由加州州长办公室土地使用与气候创新部门的高级副主任艾比·爱德华兹(Abby Edwards)负责编制。她表示,希望这份报告能够提醒当地社区和决策者,在气候变化持续加剧的情况下,应该将重点放在哪些方面。
Abby Edwards, senior deputy director for the Governor’s Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation, which produced the assessment, said she hoped the report would alert communities and decision makers about where to focus their efforts as the climate continues to change. The report, which weaves together existing and new, state-commissioned research, contains multiple scenarios based on different greenhouse gas emissions levels in the coming years, as well as recommendations for how to adapt to changing climate patterns.
这份报告综合了现有的研究结果以及州政府委托进行的新研究,提出了基于未来几年不同温室气体排放水平的多项应对方案,并提出了相应的适应措施。“未来并非不可改变的,”爱德华兹女士在采访中说。
“The future is not predetermined,” Ms. Edwards said in an interview. The report comes as the Trump administration has been undermining California’s position as a national leader in environmental protection.
这份报告发布的背景是:特朗普政府一直在削弱加州在环境保护方面的领导地位。作为全球第四大经济体,加州的环境法规对汽车制造商和消费品生产商产生了重要影响;许多加州推出的环保政策也被其他州采纳,这种现象被称为“加州效应”。特朗普政府的近期举措包括:命令一家石油公司在圣巴巴拉附近重新铺设输油管道(该管道曾在2015年导致加州历史上最严重的石油泄漏事故);批准在奥克兰建设一个新的煤炭出口码头(尽管当地政府已努力阻止该项目近十年);同时还表示可能会削弱加州海岸委员会的权力——该委员会长期以来一直负责保护加州长达840英里的海岸线。
As the world’s fourth-largest economy, California’s environmental regulations have influenced car and consumer goods manufacturers, and many of the state’s green policies have been adopted by other states in what’s known as the “California effect.”Among the recent moves from the Trump administration: It ordered an oil company to restart a pipeline off Santa Barbara that caused one of the state’s largest oil spills in 2015; it announced $75 million for a new coal export terminal in Oakland that city officials have tried to stop for nearly a decade; and it has signaled that it could curb the power of the California Coastal Commission, which has been entrusted with protecting the state’s 840-mile shoreline for more than a half-century. “As the Trump administration turns its back on science, California is doubling down on climate action, on protecting our communities, and on building a safer future,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement.
“随着特朗普政府背离科学,加利福尼亚正在加倍推进气候行动,保护我们的社区,并建设更安全的未来,”加州州长加文·纽森在一份声明中表示。
The state’s assessments began in 2006 under former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger as a way to evaluate the specific threats of global warming on the state.
该州的评估始于2006年,当时由前州长阿诺德·施瓦辛格发起,旨在评估全球变暖对该州的具体威胁。今年的评估是迄今为止最全面的。
This year’s assessment was the most extensive yet. Beyond the statistics, the report also laid out how a changing climate could threaten beloved ways of life in California, such as skiing in the Sierra Nevada and going to the beach.
除了统计数据,报告还阐述了气候变化如何威胁加利福尼亚州人们喜爱的生活方式,例如在内华达山脉滑雪和去海滩。
A longer summer means a shorter winter for California, and warmer temperatures are expected to blanket lower-elevation ski resorts with rain instead of snow.
夏季延长意味着加利福尼亚州的冬季缩短,气温升高预计将导致低海拔滑雪场出现雨而不是雪。到2100年,积雪量预计将下降60%。
The snowpack is expected to fall by 60 percent by 2100. The report also found that without major intervention, as much as three-quarters of California’s beaches could disappear — either seasonally or permanently — by 2100 because of coastal erosion.
报告还发现,如果没有重大干预,到2100年,加利福尼亚州多达四分之三的海滩可能会消失——无论是季节性还是永久性——原因是海岸侵蚀。在同一时间范围内,海平面上升预计将因海岸洪水威胁价值780亿美元的财产。该州的农业产业也预计将受到重大冲击。
In that same time frame, sea level rise is expected to threaten $78 billion worth of property because of coastal flooding. The state’s agricultural industry is expected to take a major hit as well. Many crops require a certain number of hours of cold temperature to develop properly, and warmer temperatures could decrease fruit yields in some parts of the state by as much as 40 percent, according to the report.
许多作物需要一定时长的低温才能正常发育,报告指出,气温升高可能导致该州部分地区的水果产量下降多达40%。
At the same time, water shortages could mean that the number of acres that farmers irrigate could decline dramatically, including by up to 40 percent in the San Joaquin Valley, a major agricultural hub.
与此同时,水资源短缺可能导致农民灌溉的亩数大幅下降,包括圣华金谷地(该州重要农业中心)的灌溉面积可能减少多达40%。
Soumya Karlamangla is a Times reporter who covers California.
苏米娅·卡尔曼格拉是《时报》的记者,负责报道加利福尼亚州新闻,她驻扎在旧金山湾区。
She is based in the Bay Area.