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加州如何应对洪水、火灾与极端风暴同时来袭的冬季How California is bracing for a winter of floods, fires and extreme storms all at once

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风险加剧……加利福尼亚州已经出现沿海洪水,因为厄尔尼诺现象增加了风暴、洪水和涨潮的风险。摄影:马里奥·塔马/盖蒂图片社Rising risks … California has already seen coastal flooding, as El Niño increases the risk of storms, flooding and high tides. Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images

风险日益加剧……由于厄尔尼诺现象导致风暴、洪水及涨潮风险上升,加州已出现沿海洪水现象。

Rising risks … California has already seen coastal flooding, as El Niño increases the risk of storms, flooding and high tides.

此前,美国国家气象局从未针对旧金山湾区发布过9月份的沿海洪水预警。但在过去一个月里,该机构不得不两次发布此类预警。

Before this year, the US National Weather Service had never issued a September coastal flood advisory for the San Francisco Bay Area. In the past month, it has had to issue two.

身处前线……2023年风暴过后,加利福尼亚州居民清扫回流的湿泥。摄影:大卫·麦克纽/盖蒂图片社On the frontline … California residents sweep back wet mud following storms in 2023. Photograph: David McNew/Getty Images

上周,洪水淹没了加州沿岸的多个十字路口并侵蚀了海滩。科学家与应急管理部门警告称,这只是即将到来的动荡冬季的先兆——目前异常强劲的厄尔尼诺现象仍在持续增强。气象预报员们用“超级厄尔尼诺”“哥斯拉级厄尔尼诺”等词汇来形容此次现象,意在强调太平洋上形成的极端天气条件可能迅速失控,进而引发全球范围内的极端气候事件。

As flood water swallowed intersections and eroded beaches up and down the California coast last week, scientists and emergency managers warned that this is just an early signal of a coming tumultuous winter as an already exceptional El Niño continues to strengthen. It’s been called everything from “super” to “Godzilla”, as forecasters hammer home the message that conditions brewing in the Pacific Ocean could soon climb off the charts and fuel extreme weather around the world.

数以千万计的人可能面临粮食短缺,全球粮价也将随之上涨。气候学家预测,到2月份,全球将有超过45万人因强厄尔尼诺引发的气温飙升而丧生。此外,洪水、干旱、野火与暴雨也将导致更多人员伤亡。

Tens of millions could face food insecurity and global food prices could be pushed higher. Climate scientists have projected that by February, more than 450,000 people around the world could succumb to spikes in temperature linked to the strong El Niño. Yet more deaths will be caused by floods and droughts, wildfires and rain.