分析师表示，中国人民银行考虑将其政策利率基准转向隔夜逆回购利率，这将有效降低借贷成本，从而支持债券投资。
The People’s Bank of China’s consideration of shifting its policy rate benchmark to the overnight reverse-repo rate would effectively lower borrowing costs, supporting bond investments, according to analysts.
作者：欧阳菱 他们补充称，这一转变可能刺激短期资金需求并增加杠杆风险，因此央行需要加强防范措施。
By Iris Ouyang This transition may spur demand for short-term funding and increase leverage risks, requiring the central bank to strengthen safeguards, they added.
据报道，中国央行将在适当时机研究将公开市场操作的主要期限从目前的七天期调整为隔夜期的可能性，央行行长潘功胜如是说。以下是分析师的观点：工银证券：(分析师包括刘宇)“此前，市场普遍认为1.70%是10年期国债收益率合理区间的下限，基准利率为1.40%。在政策利率‘重新锚定’之后，长期利率的定价约束可能会缓解”政策利率‘重新锚定’意味着银行间市场未来可能定期获得更低成本的隔夜流动性。
China’s central bank will study the possibility of switching the main tenor of its open market operations to the overnight one from the current seven-day rate at an appropriate time, according to a report, quoting Governor Pan Gongsheng. Here’s what analysts are saying: Industrial Securities: (Analysts including Liu Yu)“Previously, the market generally viewed 1.70% as the lower bound of the reasonable range for the 10-year government bond yield, under a 1.40% policy rate. Following the policy-rate ‘re-anchoring,’ the pricing constraint on long-term rates may ease”
借贷成本下降可能有助于重新打开债券投资搬空交易的空间，从而支撑债券市场华泰证券：(张继强、吴宇航)如果基准利率转向隔夜逆回购利率，相当于将利率锚点下调至1.25%。“融资利率锚点的下降将直接为收益率曲线腾出空间。存款和可转让存款利率也将趋向政策锚点，而融资成本的重新定价将鼓励资金进一步向曲线延伸，投资于中期和长期品种，从而增加搬空交易的空间”债券市场已经部分消化了这一转变申银证券：(分析师包括左大勇)将政策利率转至隔夜期限意味着央行需要更频繁地开展超短期操作，以平滑隔夜利率波动。
Policy-rate ‘re-anchoring’ means the interbank market may in the future have regular access to lower-cost overnight liquidity. Lower borrowing costs may help reopen room for the carry from bond investments, supporting the bond market Huatai Securities: (Zhang Jiqiang and Wu Yuhang) If the benchmark is shifted to the overnight reverse-repo rate, it would be equivalent to lowering the interest-rate anchor to 1.25%“The decline in the funding-rate anchor would directly open room for the yield curve. Deposit and negotiable certificate of deposit rates would also converge toward the policy anchor, while the repricing of funding costs would encourage allocation funds to move further along the curve into medium- and longer-term maturities, increasing the scope for carry trades”
“隔夜利率越稳定、可预测，机构滚动隔夜融资的动机就越强，这可能增加期限错配和杠杆的风险”“重新锚定不仅仅是改变操作工具的期限。”
央行还需要提高流动性预测的频率和准确性、银行间市场资金再分配的机制以及风险防范措施。
Bond market has already partially priced in the shift SDIC Securities: (Analysts including Zuo Dayong) Moving the policy rate to the overnight tenor means the central bank would need to conduct ultra-short-term operations more frequently to smooth fluctuations in overnight rates“The more stable and predictable overnight rates become, the stronger institutions’ incentive will be to roll over overnight funding, potentially increasing the risks of maturity mismatches and leverage”
天风证券：(包括刘杰在内的分析师) 在实际实施之前，仍有一些问题需要解决。隔夜OMO操作目前集中在关键时段，如税期和月末，未来需要扩展到其他常规时段。隔夜资金当天注入、次日到期；央行需要持续开展操作，以使市场形成预期，即其融资需求将得到充分满足。在隔夜OMO利率能够确立为基准锚之前，该利率至少需要明确化，以便能够提供清晰的利率政策信号。
“Re-anchoring involves more than simply changing the tenor of the operating instrument. The central bank would also need to improve the frequency and accuracy of liquidity forecasting, mechanisms for redistributing funds in the interbank market, and risk safeguards”Tianfeng Securities: (Analysts including Liu Jie) Some issues still need to be resolved before it can actually be implemented; Overnight OMO operations are currently concentrated around key times, such as the tax period and month-end, and will need to be expanded to other regular periods in the future Overnight funds are injected on one day and mature the next; PBOC needs to conduct operations continuously to give the market expectations that their funding requests will be sufficiently met Before overnight OMO rate can be established as the benchmark anchor, the rate will at least need to be made explicit so that it can provide a clear interest-rate policy signal