
外国贷款机构正重新将目光投向印度银行业,不过如今它们选择通过收购来进入市场,而非从零开始建立业务。
Foreign lenders are rediscovering Indian banking, but now they're buying their way in rather than building from scratch.
这些财力雄厚的投资者能否搅动整个行业格局?这正是本周我们关注的焦点。欢迎通过 ira.dugal@thomsonreuters.com 与我分享您的看法。
Will these deep-pocketed investors shake up the industry? That's our focus this week. Write to me with your views at ira.dugal@thomsonreuters.com.
与此同时,印度首都新德里的青年抗议活动仍在持续。请向下滑动以了解事件最新进展,以及促使年轻人走上街头的深层原因。
And, youth protests continue in India's national capital of New Delhi. Scroll down for all the developments and an analysis on what's pushing young people to take to the streets.
中国出口热潮势头强劲——特朗普对下月与习近平、普京举行三方会晤持开放态度;印度尼西亚面临罕见的MSCI指数剔除风险,这可能使其被全球资本边缘化;数据显示,尽管受到美国封锁,伊朗仍能出口部分液化石油气与航空燃油;预计到2035年,北京将步入超老龄化社会。
在长期游离于印度银行业主流之外后,如今外国贷款机构正斥资数十亿美元,以求获得仅靠自身努力难以实现的业务规模。
This Chinese export boom really has legs – and wings Trump open to idea of joint meeting with Xi, Putin next month Indonesia faces rare MSCI exclusion that could cut it off from global capital Iran ships some LPG, jet fuel despite US blockade, data shows Beijing's population expected to become super-aged by 2035 After years on the fringes of Indian banking, foreign lenders are spending billions to buy the scale they've found difficult to build organically.
上周,加拿大费尔法克斯金融控股公司以55.6亿美元的价格,从印度政府及国有保险公司Life Insurance Corporation这两大股东手中购得了IDBI银行的大部分股权。
Canada’s Fairfax Financial Holdings last week clinched a $5.56 billion deal for a majority stake in IDBI Bank from its two largest shareholders, the Indian government and state-owned insurer Life Insurance Corporation.
费尔法克斯创始人普雷姆·瓦察在投资者电话会议上称,这是在世界增长最快的经济体之一掌控一家银行的“千载难逢的良机”。这家加拿大投资机构计划将旗下其他印度金融资产也并入IDBI银行,从而打造一家涵盖信贷、保险及资本市场业务的综合性金融集团。费尔法克斯并非孤例。
Fairfax founder Prem Watsa, on an investor call, called it a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to gain control of a bank in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. The Canadian investor plans to fold other Indian financial investments into IDBI, creating a business that spans lending, insurance and capital markets. Fairfax is not alone.
多年来鲜有发生的印度银行控制权收购交易如今骤然增多,众多中型银行纷纷转向海外,寻求能够为其下一阶段发展提供资金支持的财力雄厚的投资者。去年,日本三井住友银行从2020年曾救助过Yes Bank的一批投资者手中购得了该行24%的股份;迪拜的阿联酋国民银行也同意以30亿美元的价格收购RBL银行60%的股权。
Rare for years, deals for control of Indian banks have suddenly picked up as mid-sized lenders look overseas for the deep-pocketed investors needed to fund their next phase of growth. Last year, Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation bought a 24% stake in Yes Bank from a group of investors that had rescued the lender in 2020, while Dubai’s Emirates NBD agreed to buy a 60% stake in RBL Bank for $3 billion.
近期其他交易还包括:美国银行同意以19亿美元的价格收购由穆克什·安巴尼支持的非银行金融机构Jio Financial Services 49.9%的股份,借此进军印度的零售及小微企业银行业务。
Other recent deals include Bank of America agreeing to buy a 49.9% stake in Mukesh Ambani-backed non-bank lender Jio Financial Services for $1.9 billion, giving it access to a retail and small business banking franchise.
“这些交易表明,投资者更青睐那些具备规模优势、符合监管要求且资本实力雄厚的金融服务平台,”格兰特索顿咨询公司在一份报告中指出。
“These deals suggest that investors favoured financial services platforms with scale, regulatory oversight, and substantial capital requirements,” Grant Thornton said in a note.
据格兰特索顿统计,即便在IDBI银行收购案公布之前,今年1月至9月期间印度金融行业的并购交易总额也已达41亿美元。欲了解近期规模最大的几笔交易详情,请点击此处阅读。外资银行在印度的业务表现一直参差不齐。
Mergers and acquisitions in India’s financial sector hit $4.1 billion between January and September, according to Grant Thornton, even before the IDBI transaction was announced. Read here for more on some of the biggest deals. Foreign banks have had a patchy record in India.
21世纪初,欧美多家银行曾大力拓展印度市场,但随后因全球金融危机、国际资本监管规则趋严以及国内不良贷款问题持续恶化,纷纷收缩业务规模。而本轮投资潮则有所不同。
American and European lenders expanded aggressively in India in the early 2000s, only to pull back as the global financial crisis, tougher international capital rules and a punishing domestic bad-loan cycle took their toll. This latest wave of investments is different.
此次投资资金来自更多地区,尤其是日本、中东和北美。投资者也不再从零开始搭建网点网络与客户群体,而是直接收购已经成熟的金融业务平台。
The money is coming from a broader set of geographies, notably Japan, the Middle East and North America. And instead of building branch networks and customer bases from scratch, investors are buying into established franchises.
分析人士指出,印度银行业运营指标持续改善,估值水平也较为合理,因此极具投资吸引力。
Indian banks' improved operational metrics and reasonable valuations make them an attractive bet, analysts say.
“当前不良贷款率处于数十年来的低位,信贷需求依然旺盛。在流动性环境宽松及近期加息政策的共同作用下,未来净息差有望保持稳定,”总部位于英国的投资管理公司Alquity的投资组合副经理丹·比利斯说道。
“Bad debts are at multi-decade lows, credit demand remains healthy, and a supportive liquidity backdrop coupled with recent rate hikes will support net interest margins going forward,” said Dan Billis, associate portfolio manager at UK-based investment management firm Alquity.
比利斯还表示,目前印度银行业的估值仍接近历史低位,整体水平比其10年历史平均值低两个标准差。监管层面也进一步放宽了准入限制。
Valuations remain close to the trough, with the sector trading two standard deviations below its 10-year historical average, Billis said. The regulator has also opened the door wider.
理论上而言,印度法规规定单一外资金融机构在本地银行的持股比例上限为15%。
On paper, regulations place a 15% limit on a single foreign financial institution's shareholding in an Indian bank.
不过,印度储备银行已允许外资银行在某些印度银行中持有多数股权或控制权,并视具体情况予以例外许可。
But the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has allowed foreign lenders to take majority or controlling stakes in some Indian banks, granting case-by-case exceptions.
那么,当数十亿美元的外资涌入本就竞争激烈的印度银行业时,会发生什么呢?人才争夺或许会成为首个战场。
So what happens when billions of dollars of foreign capital meets an already fiercely competitive banking market? One early battleground could be talent.
杰富瑞上周在一份报告中指出,随着新投资者对银行业务进行重组并谋求发展,印度银行业的高层人事变动已屡见不鲜,员工流动率可能仍将处于高位。
Indian banking has already seen reshuffling at the top and as new investors overhaul businesses and pursue growth, employee churn could remain elevated, Jefferies said in a note last week.
更关键的问题是:这些新东家能否实现外资银行此前在印度未能达成的目标——即凭借雄厚的资金实力在市场上占据一席之地?目前印度市场普遍被认为缺乏人工智能领域的投资机会,这也是当地股指表现逊于全球其他市场的原因之一。不过,今年有几只被视为相关概念股的股票却出现了大幅上涨。请阅读我的同事维韦克·库马尔·M撰写的这篇报道。
The bigger question is whether the new owners can succeed where foreign banks have struggled before in India: turning deep pockets into meaningful market The Indian market is considered generally bereft of AI investment opportunities — one reason the benchmark equity indices have underperformed global peers. But a handful of stocks considered proxies have rallied sharply this year. Read this report by my colleague Vivek Kumar M.
新德里针对印度最高选举委员会官员的抗议活动仍在持续,所谓“蟑螂”青年运动的领袖虽一度被捕,但随后获释。
Protests against India's top election commission official continue in New Delhi, with a leader of the "cockroach" youth movement arrested and later released.
此次抗议活动的起因是选举名单审核导致数百万选民被剔除,示威者要求选举事务负责人吉亚内什·库马尔辞职。点击此处可了解详情。
Protesters want election chief Gyanesh Kumar to resign after a review of the electoral rolls led to millions of voters being removed. Read here to understand more.
独立冲突监测机构“武装冲突地点与事件数据项目”指出,今年印度街头抗议活动的规模很可能达到过去十年之最。究竟是什么引发了民众的不满情绪?请阅读路透社记者托拉·阿加瓦尔、索拉布·夏尔马和苏尼尔·卡塔里亚撰写的这篇分析文章。
There are likely to be more street protests in India this year than at any time in the past decade, the independent conflict monitor Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) has said. What's fuelling the discontent? Read this analysis by Reuters' colleagues Tora Agarwala, Saurabh Sharma and Sunil Kataria.