
里泰什·库马尔·辛格(Ritesh Kumar Singh)是新德里“印度经济咨询”(Indonomics Consulting)公司的首席执行官。印度家庭金融储蓄的下降已成为激烈辩论的主题。
Ritesh Kumar Singh is Chief Executive of Indonomics Consulting in New Delhi. India's declining household financial savings have become a subject of intense debate.
净家庭金融储蓄(金融资产与金融负债之差)的下降引发了人们的担忧,即许多印度家庭正承受着严重的财务压力,因为收入增长未能跟上不断上涨的生活成本和税收。但储蓄下降并不一定意味着家庭正在变穷。
The fall in net household financial savings -- the difference between financial assets and financial liabilities -- has prompted concerns that many Indian households are under severe financial stress as income growth is not keeping pace with rising living costs and taxes. But falling savings do not necessarily mean households are becoming poorer.
当家庭借款增多时,其净家庭金融储蓄就会下降,即便他们的收入并没有减少。因此,重要的问题不仅仅是家庭是否在减少储蓄,而是为什么?
When households borrow more, their net financial savings fall, even if their incomes have not declined. The important question, therefore, is not simply whether households are saving less, but why?
这些数字令人瞩目。根据印度储备银行(RBI)的数据,净家庭金融储蓄占印度GDP的比例从2021-22年度的7.3%降至2022-23年度的5.3%,随后在2024-25年度回升至7%。最新数据显示,由于家庭金融负债急剧上升,该比例在2025-26年度再次降至6.2%。
The numbers are striking. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Net household financial savings dropped from 7.3% of India's GDP in 2021-22 to 5.3% in 2022-23, before recovering to 7% in 2024-25. The latest data shows that the ratio fell again to 6.2% in 2025-26, as household financial liabilities rose sharply.
印度储备银行此前将净金融储蓄的下降部分归因于借款增加以及向房地产和黄金等实物资产的转变。
RBI has previously attributed the decline in net financial savings partly to increased borrowing and a shift toward physical assets such as real estate and gold.
但与消费相关的借款不断增加引发了另一个问题:家庭储蓄减少是因为他们面临财务压力,还是因为他们越来越多地使用信贷来资助消费?
But rising consumption-related borrowing raises another question: Are households saving less because they are under financial stress, or because they are increasingly using credit to fund consumption?
这种区分至关重要。为了买车或购买昂贵智能手机而贷款的家庭,与因收入不足而不得不借钱支付杂货或医疗费用的家庭,处境截然不同。两者都会增加家庭债务,但借款的原因并不相同。
The distinction matters. A household taking a loan to buy a car or an expensive smartphone is in a different position from one borrowing to pay for groceries or medical expenses because its income is insufficient. Both add to household debt, but the reasons for borrowing are different.
围绕家庭储蓄的辩论也忽视了不同家庭之间的差异。收入不断增加的富裕家庭可能会为可支配消费通过借款进行融资,同时继续积累房产和投资。低收入家庭借款可能是因为他们的收入不足以支付基本开销。
The debate over household savings also risks overlooking differences between households. Affluent families with rising incomes may borrow to finance discretionary consumption while continuing to accumulate property and investments. Lower-income families may borrow because their earnings are insufficient to cover essential expenses.
信贷使人们能够在今天进行购买,而不必等到存够钱。如果他们的收入能够轻松覆盖还款,借款并不一定表明存在财务困境。它可能反映了人们愿意用对未来预期收入的信心在今天花更多的钱。
Credit allows people to make purchases today rather than wait until they have saved enough. If their incomes can comfortably cover the repayments, borrowing need not indicate financial distress. It can reflect a willingness to spend more today against expected future income.
印度储备银行2026年6月的《金融稳定性报告》提供了一个重要线索。截至2025年9月30日,家庭债务占印度GDP的45.5%,而中国为59%,马来西亚为69.9%,泰国为87.3%。8月22日,在金奈的一个鱼市,妇女们等待顾客。
The RBI's June 2026 "Financial Stability Report" provides an important clue. Household debt stood at 45.5% of India's GDP as of Sept. 30, 2025, compared with 59% in China, 69.9% in Malaysia and 87.3% in Thailand. Women wait for customers at a fish market in Chennai on Aug. 22.
截至2026年3月,非住房零售贷款占家庭总借款的58.4%,且其占比随时间推移不断上升。这些贷款在很大程度上资助了消费,从购买汽车和消费品到资助度假及其他可支配支出。其余部分包括住房贷款(26.3%)以及农业和商业贷款(15.3%)。
By March 2026, nonhousing retail loans accounted for 58.4% of total household borrowing, with their share rising over time. These loans largely finance consumption, from buying cars and consumer goods to funding holidays and other discretionary spending. The balance comprised housing loans (26.3%) and agricultural and business loans (15.3%).
这并非必然是一件坏事。获得更多正规信贷的机会使家庭能够将购买成本分摊到各个时期。贷款机构在发放贷款前会评估借款人的收入、现有债务、信用记录以及相关情况下的抵押品。因此,他们发放贷款的意愿可以反映出他们对借款人还款能力的评估。
That is not automatically a bad thing. Greater access to formal credit allows households to spread the cost of purchases over time. Lenders assess borrowers' incomes, existing obligations, credit histories and, where relevant, collateral before extending loans. Their willingness to lend can, therefore, reflect their assessment of borrowers' repayment capacity.
放贷决策并非绝对不会出错,获得信贷也并不证明每个借款人的财务状况都很舒适。但仅凭借款增加也无法断定家庭正在变穷。
Lending decisions are not infallible, and access to credit does not prove that every borrower is financially comfortable. But rising borrowing alone cannot establish that households are becoming poorer either.
如果不断增加的家庭借款已经造成了广泛的财务困境,我们本应看到还款表现恶化的明显证据。现有数据提供了一幅更为鼓舞人心的图景。
If rising household borrowing were already causing widespread financial distress, we would expect to see clear evidence of deteriorating repayment performance. The available data offers a more encouraging picture.
印度储备银行2026年6月发布的金融稳定性报告显示,截至2026年3月,有担保零售贷款的不良资产总额比例为0.7%,无担保零售贷款为1.7%。无担保贷款具有更大的风险,但这些数字并未指向零售贷款领域不良贷款的普遍激增。
The RBI's June 2026 report on financial stability put the gross nonperforming asset ratio at 0.7% for secured retail loans and 1.7% for unsecured retail loans in March 2026. Unsecured loans carry greater risk, but the figures do not point to a broad surge in bad loans across retail lending.
征信机构CRIF High Mark的《印度借贷方式》(How India Lends)报告提供了进一步的证据。逾期31至180天的消费贷款比例从2025年3月的2.9%降至2026年3月的2.4%。这是一个逾期贷款指标,而非不良贷款比例,但该下降表明,即便用于资助消费的借款在扩大,还款表现也有所改善。
Credit bureau CRIF High Mark's "How India Lends" report provides further evidence. The share of consumption loans overdue by 31-180 days fell from 2.9% in March 2025 to 2.4% in March 2026. This is an overdue-loan measure rather than a bad-loan ratio, but the decline suggests that repayment performance has improved even as lending to fund consumption has expanded.
特定领域存在风险,特别是小额无担保贷款。但这些风险不应与印度家庭普遍面临财务困境的证据混为一谈。整体贷款还款趋势并不支持这种结论。
There are risks in specific segments, especially small-ticket unsecured lending. But these risks should not be confused with evidence of widespread financial distress among Indian households. Overall loan repayment trends do not support such a conclusion.
净储蓄水平和家庭借款构成需要结合起来进行考察。6.2%的净金融储蓄占GDP比例为我们提供了一个衡量家庭储蓄多少的指标。非住房零售债务占比的上升则向我们表明了他们的借款方式。这两项统计数据本身都无法证明印度家庭是在变穷还是在变富。
The level of net savings and the composition of household borrowing need to be examined together. The 6.2% net financial savings-to-GDP ratio gives us one measure of how much households are saving. The rising share of nonhousing retail debt tells us something about how they are borrowing. Neither statistic on its own proves that Indian households are becoming poorer or wealthier.
消费借款的增加可能反映了获得信贷的机会增加、对未来收入的信心以及今天愿意花更多钱的意愿。如果收入跟不上债务偿还的步伐,它也可能会产生问题。这两种结果都有可能发生,但现有的贷款违约数据并未证实广泛的财务困境正在蔓延。
Rising consumption borrowing could reflect greater access to credit, confidence in future earnings and a willingness to spend more today. It could also create problems if incomes fail to keep pace with debt repayments. Both outcomes are possible, but the available loan default data does not establish that widespread financial distress is taking hold.
真正的问题不仅仅是为什么印度人在减少储蓄。而是他们是在利用不断增长的未来收入进行借贷,还是在利用债务维持当前收入无法支持的生活水平。在做出这种区分之前,将净金融储蓄的下降解释为印度人正在变穷的证据,可能会将家庭资助消费方式的变化与经济状况的恶化混为一谈。
The real question is not simply why Indians are saving less. It is whether they are borrowing against rising future incomes or using debt to sustain a standard of living their current incomes cannot support. Until that distinction is made, interpreting falling net financial savings as proof that Indians are becoming poorer risks confusing a change in how households finance consumption with a deterioration in their economic well-being.