
根据阿努普·罗伊(Anup Roy)的报道,印度家庭预计未来三个月和一年内通胀将急剧上升,这反映出人们对价格压力的担忧,正是这种担忧促使央行近四年来首次上调了基准利率。
Indian households expect inflation to rise sharply over the next three months and one year, reflecting concerns over price pressures that prompted the central bank to increase the benchmark rate for the first time in nearly four years.
根据印度储备银行(RBI)周三发布的一项双月度调查,在9月10日至20日进行的调查中,家庭对当前通胀的感知比7月份的上轮调查增加了60个基点。未来三个月的通胀预期上升了70个基点,未来一年的通胀预期上升了60个基点。
Households’ perception of current inflation increased by 60 basis points in the survey conducted from Sept. 10 to 20 over the previous round in July, according to a bi-monthly survey by the Reserve Bank of India released Wednesday. The outlook rose by 70 basis points for the next three months, and 60 basis points for the year ahead.
这项调查涵盖了19个主要城市的5987名受访者,它是衡量通胀预期变化方向的指标,而不是衡量通胀绝对水平的指标。
The survey, which covered 5,987 respondents across 19 major cities, is an indicator of the expected direction of change rather than the absolute level of inflation.
家庭的评估与印度央行的评估一致。鉴于不断加剧的通胀风险,印度央行将回购利率上调了25个基点至5.50%。行长桑杰·马尔霍特拉(Sanjay Malhotra)指出,核心通胀回升的早期迹象以及整个消费篮子中更广泛板块的价格上涨。
Households’ assessment aligns with that of the RBI, which raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, citing growing inflation risks. Governor Sanjay Malhotra pointed to early signs of a pickup in core inflation and higher prices across a broader segment of the consumption basket.
8月份消费者通胀加速至4.82%,逼近央行2%-6%容忍区间的上限后,加息预期进一步增强。
Expectations of a rate increase had strengthened after consumer inflation accelerated to 4.82% in August, moving closer to the upper end of the central bank’s 2%-6% tolerance band.
不过,据印度央行称,更高的利率预计不会显着抑制作为经济关键增长引擎的消费。
Still, a higher rate is not expected to significantly dampen consumption, the economy’s key growth engine, according to the RBI.
印度央行在其城市消费者信心调查中表示:“消费者对未来一年的乐观情绪仍处于正值区间,尽管略有缓和。”调查称,市场对收入和支出的情绪依然乐观,但对经济形势、就业和物价存在一些担忧。印度央行表示,农村情绪略有下降,但仍处于乐观区间。
“Consumer optimism for the year ahead remained in positive terrain, albeit with slight moderation,” the RBI said in its urban consumer confidence survey. The sentiment is optimistic on income and spending, with some concerns over the economic situation, employment and prices, it said. Rural sentiment fell slightly but was still in the optimistic zone, the RBI said.