CNBC-TV 18民意调查显示，印度储备银行货币政策委员会普遍预计将将回购利率上调25个基点至5.5%，这是连续四次政策会议后首次加息，利率维持在5.25%不变。民意调查还表明，央行在加息后可能会保持谨慎态度，大多数受访者预计货币政策委员会将保持中立立场，同时暗示未来的行动仍将取决于即将到来的数据。
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll, marking the first rate increase after four consecutive policy meetings in which rates were kept unchanged at 5.25%.The poll also suggests that the central bank is likely to maintain a cautious approach after the hike, with most respondents expecting the MPC to retain its neutral stance while signalling that future actions will remain dependent on incoming data.
市场还将密切关注州长桑贾伊·马尔霍特拉的评论，以寻找进一步紧缩步伐的线索。过去一个月，随着原油价格升至每桶100美元以上、8月份零售通胀攀升至22个月高点、美联储和欧洲央行加息，加息的理由在过去一个月有所增强，卢比兑美元汇率接近96。民意调查显示，100%的受访者预计印度储备银行将提高回购利率25个基点。
Markets will also closely watch Governor Sanjay Malhotra's commentary for clues on the pace of further tightening. The case for a rate hike has strengthened over the past month amid crude oil prices rising above $100 per barrel, August retail inflation climbing to a 22-month high, rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and the rupee trading near 96 against the US dollar. According to the poll, 100% of respondents expect the RBI to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points.
在政策立场上，60%的受访者预计货币政策委员会将保持中立立场，而30%的人预计将重新取消住宿。另有10%的人认为印度储备银行可以保留目前的立场，但修改措辞以表明进一步收紧的可能性。大多数受访者预计当前的加息周期将继续。约60%的人预计累计加息50个基点，30%的人预计累计加息75个基点，10%的人认为可能会加息整整100个基点。
On the policy stance, 60% of respondents expect the MPC to retain a neutral stance, while 30% anticipate a shift back to withdrawal of accommodation. Another 10% believe the RBI could retain the current stance but modify its language to indicate the possibility of further tightening. The majority of respondents expect the current rate-hike cycle to continue. About 60% forecast cumulative hikes of 50 basis points, while 30% expect a total of 75 basis points and 10% see the possibility of a full 100 basis points of tightening.
大多数受访者还预计下次加息最早将在12月政策会议上进行。对经济增长的看法存在分歧。一半的受访者预计印度储备银行将将其27财年国内生产总值增长预期上调至6.8%-7%，而其余一半的受访者预计将进一步上调至7%-7.2%。然而，通胀预期已调高。
Most respondents also expect the next rate increase to come as early as the December policy meeting. Views on economic growth were divided. Half of the respondents expect the RBI to raise its FY27 gross domestic product growth forecast to 6.8%-7%, while the remaining half see it increasing further to 7%-7.2%.Inflation expectations, however, have shifted higher.
约80%的受访者认为，印度储备银行（RBI）将把通胀预测从5%上调至5.1%-5.4%的区间，这反映了原油价格上涨以及天气相关风险（包括马哈拉施特拉邦的干旱状况）的影响。
Around 80% of respondents believe the RBI will raise its inflation forecast from 5% to a range of 5.1%-5.4%, reflecting the impact of elevated crude prices and weather-related risks, including drought conditions in Maharashtra.
流动性管理预计也将继续成为焦点。半数受访者预计印度储备银行将继续使用可变利率逆回购操作来吸收过剩流动性。约30%的受访者预计不会采取额外的流动性措施，而10%的受访者预计会有更多公开市场操作卖出，另有10%的受访者预计会提高现金准备金率。
Liquidity management is also expected to remain in focus. Half of the respondents expect the RBI to continue using Variable Rate Reverse Repo operations to absorb excess liquidity. Around 30% do not expect any additional liquidity measures, while 10% foresee more open market operations sales and another 10% expect a cash reserve ratio hike.
除了利率决定之外，受访者表示，他们将密切关注印度储备银行的政策基调、通胀预测、关于紧缩周期持续时间的指引、进一步的流动性吸收措施，以及旨在缓和特定经济领域贷款的任何宏观审慎举措。更多内容，请访问……
Beyond the rate decision, respondents said they would closely monitor the RBI's policy tone, inflation projections, guidance on the duration of the tightening cycle, further liquidity absorption measures and any macroprudential steps aimed at moderating lending in specific segments of the economy. For more,