印度央行很可能在明年连续多次会议上加息，因为不断扩大的物价压力正将其进一步推入全球紧缩周期。
India’s central bank will likely raise interest rates at successive meetings into next year as broadening price pressures push it deeper into a global tightening cycle.
包括高盛集团、标准渣打银行、德意志银行和摩根士丹利在内的越来越多经济学家预测，印度储备银行将在12月4日的下一次决策会议上再次加息25个基点。部分人士认为，2027年上半年还将进一步加息0.5个百分点，使政策利率从目前5.5%的水平升至两年高点6.25%。
A growing number of economists, including those at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Standard Chartered Plc., Deutsche Bank AG and Morgan Stanley & Co. are predicting a follow-up 25-basis-point increase at the Reserve Bank’s next decision on Dec. 4. Some see a further half-point of tightening in the first half of 2027, taking the policy rate to a two-year high of 6.25%, from 5.5% now.
这将使印度的基准利率成为亚洲最高水平之一，凸显出通胀前景恶化之迅速——而这家央行在不到一年前还在降息。
That would put India’s benchmark rate among the highest in Asia, underscoring how quickly the inflation outlook has deteriorated for a central bank that was still cutting rates less than a year ago.
周三，印度储备银行（RBI）在近四年内首次加息，并将政策立场调整为“有度紧缩”，同时指出通胀正呈现出全面性特征，这些迹象强化了市场对其将进一步加息的预期。
Expectations for further hikes hardened Wednesday after the RBI delivered its first rate increase in nearly four years and changed its policy stance to “calibrated tightening,” pointing to early evidence that inflation was becoming broad-based.
高盛分析师Santanu Sengupta表示，该行对RBI政策基调的评估显示，与8月份相比，其沟通措辞的“鹰派程度显著增强”。他预计还将至少加息75个基点，理由是“经济增长保持韧性、物价压力趋于全面化，且2027年厄尔尼诺现象可能加剧食品通胀风险”。花旗银行分析师Samiran Chakraborty也认为，加息75个基点的可能性正在上升。
Goldman’s Santanu Sengupta said the investment bank’s measure of the RBI’s policy tone showed a “material increase in the hawkishness” of its communication compared with August. He expects at least another 75 basis points of hikes, citing “growth remaining resilient, price pressures getting broad-based and El Niño-related food inflation risks likely to intensify in 2027.”Citi’s Samiran Chakraborty also now sees a greater likelihood of 75 basis points of tightening.
更高的终端利率预测反映出市场担忧通胀可能更为持久：中东冲突推高能源成本，而季风降雨不足则威胁食品价格。周三公布的RBI调查数据进一步加剧了这种担忧，显示家庭预计未来几个月通胀将急剧加速。
The higher terminal-rate forecasts reflect concern that inflation may prove more persistent as the Middle East conflict pushes up energy costs and weak monsoons threaten food prices. RBI surveys released Wednesday added to those worries, showing households expect inflation to accelerate sharply in coming months.
目前，强劲的经济增长仍为RBI提供了政策应对空间。印度经济在4月至6月季度增长7.8%，超出央行此前的预测。
For now, strong growth gives the RBI room to respond. The economy expanded 7.8% in the April-June quarter, beating the central bank’s forecast.
摩根士丹利印度首席经济学家乌帕萨娜·查奇拉表示：“通胀压力不断加剧，同时信贷增长也反映出强劲的增长势头，因此有必要进一步加息。”她指出，“这些举措将有助于使实际利率回归正常水平、遏制二阶通胀风险、维持通胀预期，并支持外部稳定。”不过，印度储备银行（RBI）在加息幅度方面仍保留了相当大的灵活性。行长桑贾伊·马尔霍特拉将周三的新立场描述为一种“温和”的紧缩措施，并表示加息周期的持续时间和幅度将取决于通胀和经济增长的走势。
“The broadening of inflationary pressures alongside healthy growth momentum as reflected in credit growth warrants further rate hikes,” according to Upasana Chachra, chief India economist for Morgan Stanley. “These would help normalize real rates, contain second-round inflation risks, preserve inflation expectations, and support external stability.”The RBI has nevertheless left itself considerable flexibility over how far to go. Governor Sanjay Malhotra described Wednesday’s new stance as a “milder” form of tightening and said the duration and extent of the rate-hike cycle would depend on how inflation and growth evolve.
汇丰银行（HSBC）的普兰朱尔·班达里则提醒，不应将这一变化解读为未来将继续加息的承诺。她预计12月会有一次跟进加息，此后可能会长期暂停加息。
HSBC’s Pranjul Bhandari cautioned against reading the change as a commitment to further rate increases. She expects a follow-up hike in December and a likely prolonged pause thereafter.
她表示：“印度储备银行并未承诺具体的加息幅度；每次会议都可能选择加息或维持利率不变。”她同时提到了印度储备银行2018年的经验。当年10月，在年初两次加息之后，该央行采取了“审慎的紧缩”政策，但此后从未再次加息，最终甚至逆转了此前的政策方向。
“The RBI hasn’t signed up for a specific quantum of hikes; it can hike or stay on hold in every meeting,” she said, pointing to the RBI’s experience in 2018. The central bank adopted “calibrated tightening” that October after two hikes earlier in the year, but never raised rates again before eventually reversing course.
此外，巴克莱银行（Barclays）的阿斯塔·古德瓦尼以及印度信用评级机构ICRA的经济学家们也不认为12月之后会出现大幅加息。
Others who do not expect sharp hikes after December include Barclays’ Aastha Gudwani and economists at ICRA.