印度9月整体通胀率从8月的4.82%升至5.54%，这给该国央行进一步收紧货币政策增添了压力。
India's headline inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.82% in August, adding pressure on the country's central bank to further tighten monetary policy.
根据路透社的一项调查，消费者价格指数略高于经济学家预期的5.40%。在这个全球增长最快的经济体中，通胀率已连续11个月上升，并在9月触及22个月以来的最高点。
The consumer price index print was slightly above economists' expectations of 5.40%, according to a Reuters poll. Inflation has been on the rise for 11 straight months in the world's fastest-growing economy and has touched a 22-month high in September.
本月早些时候，印度储备银行自2023年以来首次加息，加入了几大主要央行收紧货币政策的行列，以遏制加速的通胀。印度央行还表示，在“当前形势下”，进一步降息在“近期已无可能”，政策行动可能是加息或暂停。
Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India raised its interest rates for the first time since 2023, joining several major central banks in tightening monetary policy in a bid to arrest accelerating inflation. India's central bank also said that in the "current conditions" further rate cuts were "off the table in the near term" and policy action could either be a rate hike or a pause.
印度是对伊朗战争引起的供应中断最脆弱的国家之一。该国进口了近85%的燃料需求，在伊朗战争爆发前，它严重依赖通过霍尔木兹海峡的能源供应。
India is among the countries most vulnerable to the supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. It imports nearly 85% of its fuel needs, and before the Iran war it heavily relied on energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
由于中东紧张局势，油价一直居高不下。然而，专家预测，在中东冲突的担忧以及飓风伊斯雷亚斯的影响下，油价在近期内将保持波动。
Oil prices have been elevated due to the tensions in the Middle East. Experts, however, predict that prices will remain volatile in the near term amid concerns over the Middle East conflict and the impact of Hurricane Isaias.
*印度央行预计，截至2027年3月的财年，核心通胀率为4.4%，整体通胀率为5.2%，高于印度储备银行4%的中期目标。
India's central bank expects core inflation to be at 4.4% for the financial year ending March 2027 and headline inflation at 5.2%, which is higher than the RBI's medium-term target of 4%.
印度储备银行将印度的经济增长预期上调了40个基点至7.1%，但警告称，持续的地缘政治紧张局势、贸易摩擦、金融状况收紧以及高企的国际大宗商品价格可能会对经济活动造成拖累。
The RBI raised India's economic growth estimate by 40 basis points to 7.1% but cautioned that protracted geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, tightening of financial conditions and elevated international commodity prices would likely weigh on economic activity.
超级厄尔尼诺现象给特别是食品价格和印度的农村经济带来了额外风险，该国在6月至9月（其主要依赖雨水的农场和水库的关键季节）迎来了十多年来的最低降雨量。
Food prices in particular and India's rural economy also face an added risk from the Super El Nino, with the country receiving its lowest rainfall in over a decade during June to September, a key season for its largely rain-fed farms and reservoirs.
根据印度气象局的数据，这是自2001年以来第四低的降雨量，也是自1901年以来第13干旱的时期。马哈拉施特拉邦、安得拉邦、旁遮普邦和哈里亚纳邦等主要农业邦的许多地区正面临极端干旱状况。
The rainfall was the fourth lowest since 2001, and the 13th driest since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department. Several parts of key farm states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana are facing extreme drought conditions.
汇丰银行在10月7日的一份报告中表示，预计在印度储备银行采取政策行动的一天后，即12月会再次加息。分析师表示：“这可能不是一个深度的紧缩周期，但它确实是一个紧缩周期，”并补充说9月的零售通胀数据可能会显示出“大幅度的整体飙升”。
HSBC said in a report on Oct. 7 that it expects another rate hike in December, a day after the RBI policy action. "This may not be a deep tightening cycle, but a tightening cycle it is," the analysts said, adding that the September retail inflation data is likely to show a "sizeable headline pop."