德里,10月14日——根据政府周三公布的数据,印度9月份的批发通胀率以高于预期的11.39%的速度上升,这主要是由于伊朗战争导致的能源供应中断以及油价飙升所引发的。
DELHI, Oct 14 - India's annual wholesale inflation accelerated at a faster-than-expected 11.39% in September, government data showed on Wednesday, driven by a surge in oil prices amid persistent energy disruptions from the Iran war.
在印度,批发价格的上涨速度超过了零售价格:由于国有燃料零售商仅将部分上涨的能源成本转嫁给了消费者,因此批发价格涨幅更为显著。零售通胀率也开始上升,接近印度中央银行设定的通胀容忍范围的上限。
Wholesale prices have risen more quickly than retail prices in India as state-run fuel retailers have passed on only a fraction of the higher energy costs to consumers. Retail inflation has also started to move higher, nearing the upper end of the central bank's tolerance band in September.
印度储备银行(RBI)上周与其他国家央行一道,时隔近四年首次上调了基准利率,理由是价格压力正在加剧。
The Reserve Bank of India, which targets retail inflation, joined its global peers last week to raise the benchmark repo rate for the first time in nearly four years, citing a broadening of price pressures.
9月份的批发通胀率高于8月份的9.92%,也超过了路透社调查中经济学家预测的10.18%。这一数据是自2022-23财年(即新统计周期的起始年份)以来的最高水平。
Wholesale inflation in September was higher than the 9.92% rise in August and economists' average projection of 10.18% in a Reuters poll. The reading was the highest under a new series that started in June with 2022-23 as the base year.
印度评级与研究公司(India Ratings and Research)的首席经济学家德文德拉·潘特(Devendra Pant)表示:“批发通胀现象正在变得普遍化,我们预计这种压力将持续到明年。”他补充说:“我们预计2026年10月的批发通胀率将超过12%,并且至少在2027年2月之前都会保持在两位数水平;不过,如果西亚危机得到解决,通胀率可能会下降。”
In line with retail inflation, wholesale inflation is also getting generalized, Devendra Pant, chief economist, India Ratings and Research, said, adding he expects pressure on wholesale prices to continue till next year. "We expect wholesale inflation to jump to over 12% in October 2026, and it is likely to remain in double digit at least till February 2027," Pant said. "However, in case of solution to West Asia crisis, inflation could be lower."
8月份,石油和天然气的批发价格同比上涨了34.41%;9月份这一涨幅进一步扩大至57.32%。同时,食品类商品的批发价格在8月份上涨7.05%的基础上,又进一步上涨了8.66%。
In September, petroleum and natural gas wholesale prices jumped 57.32% on-year after a 34.41% rise in August, while wholesale food prices advanced 8.66% after rising 7.05% in the previous month.
由于伊朗战争的影响,布伦特原油期货价格一直维持在每桶100美元以上;此外,季风不足的情况加剧了人们对食品供应的担忧。
Brent crude futures have stayed above the $100 a barrel mark amid the Iran war, while a deficient monsoon has heightened concerns over food supplies.
ICRA的首席经济学家拉胡尔·阿格拉瓦尔指出,通胀范围正在扩大。剔除食品和燃料等波动较大的因素后,非食品制成品的批发价格涨幅在整体物价上涨中占据了半壁江山。
Reflecting a broadening of inflation, wholesale prices of non-food manufactured goods, a segment that strips out volatile components such as food and fuel, accounted for more than half of the uptick in the headline print, Rahul Agrawal, principal economist at ICRA, said.
数据显示,9月份制成品价格同比上涨9.76%,而8月份这一涨幅为8.37%。据路透社测算,生产者价格指数也由上个月的9.8%升至11.39%。
Prices of manufactured products rose 9.76% in September after an 8.37% rise a month ago. Producer prices rose 11.39% against a 9.8% rise in the previous month, according to a Reuters calculation.