印度利率制定小组成员表示，为抑制通胀可能还需要进一步加息，但由于担忧对经济增长的风险，他们并未支持采取激进的紧缩周期，该委员会周三公布的会议纪要显示。
Members of India's rate-setting panel indicated that further rate hikes may be needed to curb inflation but stopped short of endorsing an aggressive tightening cycle over risks to economic growth, minutes of the committee's meeting released on Wednesday showed.
印度储备银行货币政策委员会本月早些时候一致将回购利率上调25个基点至5.50%，这是其近四年来的首次加息。该委员会还将货币政策立场从“中立”转为“精准紧缩”，行长桑贾伊·马尔霍特拉表示，这一转变基本上表明降息已不在考虑之列。
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% earlier this month, its first hike in nearly four years. It also shifted its stance to "calibrated tightening" from "neutral", with Governor Sanjay Malhotra saying that the shift essentially signalled that rate cuts were off the table.
中东战争导致油价大幅上涨，加上季风雨季降雨不足，引发食品价格飞涨并加剧通胀担忧，促使市场预计未来12个月将加息略多于100个基点。“通胀普遍化的迹象日益增多，”马尔霍特拉在会议纪要中表示。
A sharp rise in oil prices due to the Middle East war and a deficient monsoon rain season have sparked a jump in food prices and stoked inflation worries, prompting markets to price in a little over 100 bps of hikes in the next 12 months. "There are increasing signs of generalisation of inflation," Malhotra said in the minutes.
国内零售通胀（INCPIY=ECI）在9月加速升至高于预期的5.54%，接近央行6%的容忍上限，进一步支持了继续加息的理由。
Domestic retail inflation (INCPIY=ECI) accelerated to a higher-than-expected 5.54% in September, nearing the central bank's 6% tolerance ceiling and strengthening the case for further hikes.
根据央行最新预测，央行预计当前10月至12月季度的通胀平均水平将为6%。
The central bank expects inflation to average 6% in the ongoing October-December quarter, per its latest projections.
考虑到这一点，“人们可能不希望等待更明确的通胀普遍化证据，而应意识到货币政策存在时滞，”副行长普南·古普塔表示。
Considering this, "one may not want to wait for more definitive evidence of generalisation, and instead be mindful of the fact that monetary policy works with a lag", Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said.
“为了保持低通胀并稳固通胀预期，进一步提高政策利率可能是必要的。”央行在本月早些时候的政策评审中，将当前财政年度的平均通胀预测从5%上调至5.2%，并将经济增长预测小幅上调40个基点至7.1%。
"It is conceivable that a further increase in the policy rate might be needed to keep inflation low and inflationary expectations anchored." The central bank raised its average inflation forecast to 5.2% for the current financial year from 5% and nudged up its economic growth forecast by 40 bps to 7.1% at its policy review earlier this month.
“所有信息都表明，目前有充分的理由采取更为紧缩的货币政策，”印度储备银行（RBI）货币政策委员会（MPC）成员Saugata Bhattacharya在会议记录中表示。“但同时，如果政策利率调整过于迅速，可能会抑制经济增长，”他补充道。
"The totality of information indicates a strong economic case at this time for tightening monetary policy," MPC member Saugata Bhattacharya said in the minutes. "At the same time, too rapid a policy rate adjustment risks constricting growth," he added.
然而，货币政策委员会成员们以及经济学家们对于最终需要采取多大的紧缩力度存在分歧。
However, the rate panel members and economists are split over the extent of tightening that may ultimately be needed.
MPC成员Nagesh Kumar和Ram Singh都反对改变当前的货币政策立场；Ram Singh还指出，这种政策转变可能会预示着利率上调的周期会持续较长时间——而目前并没有这样的必要。
MPC members Nagesh Kumar and Ram Singh were both opposed to changing the monetary place stance, with Singh adding that the shift may signal an extended cycle of rate hikes — something that is not merited at the moment.
“目前，逐步、小幅上调回购利率是更为合适的做法，而不是立即大幅提高利率，”Singh在会议记录中写道，并指出，如果市场预期央行会采取过于激进的紧缩措施，可能会对整个经济需求产生负面影响（这种影响不仅限于那些对利率敏感的行业）。
"For now, there is a case for incremental, mild repo rate hikes, not high-for-long rates," Singh said in the minutes, pointing to how expectations of aggressive tightening can undermine demand even beyond rate-sensitive sectors.
巴克莱银行的经济学家预测，在当前的政策周期内还会再有两次利率上调；而高盛银行的分析师则预计至少还有三次利率上调，这些上调将分布在2027年12月至6月期间。与此同时，汇丰银行预测12月份 alone 就会有一次50个基点的利率上调。
Economists at Barclays have forecast two more rate hikes in the current cycle while their counterparts at Goldman Sachs expect at least three more, spread over December to June 2027. HSBC, meanwhile, has forecast an outsized 50-bp increase in December alone.
“我认为，在这个关键时刻，最好摒弃‘谨慎的态度’，采取主动措施，而不是坐视不管、等待时机，”印度储备银行执行董事Indranil Bhattacharyya在会议记录中说道。
"I feel it is better to set aside the 'cautiousness bias' and act in a pre-emptive manner at this juncture rather than wait and watch," RBI Executive Director Indranil Bhattacharyya said in the minutes.