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品浩:对印度资产持中性态度,预计将加息75个基点PIMCO neutral on Indian assets, eyes 75 bps in interest rate hikes, exec says

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印度储备银行(RBI)的标志,背景中有人站立,此前在印度孟买举行的一场货币政策评估后的新闻发布会,2026年8月5日。路透社/弗朗西斯·马斯卡雷尼亚斯/资料照片A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo as people stand in the background, ahead of a press conference, after a monetary policy review in Mumbai, India, August 5, 2026. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo

全球债券管理机构品浩(PIMCO)一名高管周二表示,该公司对印度资产持中性态度,并预计印度储备银行将在本轮紧缩周期中将利率总共提高75个基点。

Global bond manager PIMCO is neutral on Indian assets and expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates by a total of 75 basis points in the current tightening cycle, an executive said on Tuesday.

品浩董事总经理兼亚洲投资组合经理张(Stephen Chang)在接受路透社电子邮件采访时表示,印度的经济增长依然强劲,但食品和能源价格带来的通胀风险已经重现。

India's growth remains strong, but inflation risks from food and energy prices have returned, Stephen Chang, PIMCO's managing director and Asia portfolio manager, told Reuters in an email interview.

印度央行上周将关键利率提高至5.50%,这是近四年来的首次加息,并转向了“审慎收紧”的立场,发出了将进一步加息的信号。

The RBI last week raised its key rate to 5.50%, its first increase in nearly four years, and shifted to a "calibrated tightening" stance, signaling further rate increases.

张表示:“我们继续预计印度央行将进一步收紧政策,不过我们认为最终调整幅度接近75个基点,而目前市场定价约为100个基点。”但他没有具体说明加息的时间跨度。

"We continue to expect further tightening by the RBI, although we see the terminal adjustment closer to 75 basis points, versus the roughly 100 basis points currently priced by markets," Chang said, without specifying the time period over which the rate hikes will be delivered.

作为衡量利率预期关键指标的印度隔夜指数掉期显示,最终的回购利率为6.25%至6.50%,即在12个月内加息100至125个基点。

India's overnight index swaps, a key gauge of rate expectations, imply a terminal repo rate of 6.25%-6.50%, or 100-125 basis points of increases over 12 months.

总部位于美国的品浩截至6月底在全球管理着约2.33万亿美元资产,该公司表示,美联储的紧缩周期也影响了印度央行的决定。

US-based PIMCO, which managed about $2.33 trillion globally at the end of June, said the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle also influenced the RBI's decision.

张表示,虽然国内状况是主要驱动因素,但卢比的稳定以及美国利率的前景也发挥了作用。

While domestic conditions were the main driver, rupee stability and the outlook for US interest rates also played a role, Chang said.

“鉴于当前的估值以及油价和美联储政策动态的交织影响,目前我们对印度资产总体保持中性。”随着印度央行推出支持卢比的措施并承诺若卢比跌幅加速将采取进一步行动,兑美元交易价格接近95的印度卢比依然备受关注。

"We remain broadly neutral on Indian assets at the moment, given current valuations and the cross-currents from oil prices and Federal Reserve policy dynamics." The Indian rupee, trading near 95 per dollar, remains in focus after the RBI introduced measures to support it and pledged further action if its decline accelerates.

自10月10日以来,印度央行宣布了一系列严格措施,包括将石油公司的美元购买重定向至一个专门机制,并对进口债务以及银行自身资产和负债的外汇对冲征收现金保证金。

The RBI has announced a series of stringent measures since October 10, including redirecting oil companies' dollar purchases to a special facility and imposing cash margins on FX hedges for import liabilities and banks' own assets and liabilities.

张表示,这些措施旨在遏制投机压力,并限制高企的油价对卢比的影响。

Chang said the measures were aimed to curb speculative pressure and limit the impact of elevated oil prices on the rupee.

基准布伦特原油价格徘徊在每桶105美元左右,这加剧了高度依赖进口的印度的通胀和外部部门风险。

The benchmark Brent crude was hovering near $105 a barrel, adding to inflation and external-sector risks for import-dependent India.

印度央行行长桑杰·马尔霍特拉周二在接受媒体采访时表示,这些措施旨在确保对冲用于真实需求而非投机,并补充说,该央行已准备好采取更多步骤来维持汇率的有序波动。

In a media interview on Tuesday, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that the measures were intended to ensure hedging is used for genuine needs rather than speculation, adding that the central bank was prepared to take more steps to maintain orderly movements in the currency.

张表示:“这些措施还表明,印度央行已准备好应对过度的货币疲软,并且在美元兑卢比汇率接近100关口之际,急于划定底线。”

"The measures also signal that the RBI is prepared to respond to excessive currency weakness and is keen to draw a line in the sand as USD/INR approaches the 100 level," Chang said.