
印度央行行长桑杰·马尔霍特拉表示,如有需要,印度央行可以动用利率来应对金融稳定风险。目前分析师预计卢比将面临进一步压力。
India’s central bank can deploy interest rates to address financial-stability risks, if needed, said Governor Sanjay Malhotra, in comments that come when analysts expect further pressure on the rupee.
马尔霍特拉周五在一场活动上回答提问时表示,货币政策主要用于维持物价稳定,但在“某些情况下也可用于维护金融稳定”。当时他被问及利率是否可能成为印度储备银行外汇政策工具的一部分。他说,时机是否合适、以及此类行动是否有效,是利率制定小组“当然会斟酌”的问题。
The monetary policy is primarily used to maintain price stability, though it “could be deployed for financial stability in some circumstances,” Malhotra said at an event Friday, responding to a question if rates could form part of the Reserve Bank of India’s foreign-exchange toolkit. Whether the time is right and if such an action would be effective is something the rate-setting panel “certainly deliberates on,” he said.
印度卢比是今年亚洲表现最差的货币之一,原因是中东战争推高油价,且外国投资者持续撤离当地资产。在印度储备银行采取自2013年“缩减恐慌”以来最激进的防御措施后,卢比近几日的跌势有所缓解。
The Indian currency is among Asia’s worst performers this year as the Middle East war drives oil prices higher and foreign investors continue to exit local assets. The drag has eased somewhat in recent days after the RBI mounted its most aggressive defense since the 2013 taper tantrum.
印度央行推出了一个特别窗口,以满足国有石油公司的美元需求,并引入一项工具,要求银行针对某些外汇交易存放现金。此前,一项特殊的侨民存款计划带来了创纪录的美元流入。卢比周五收于1美元兑94.94卢比,本月早些时候曾跌至接近97的历史低位。
The central bank rolled out a special window to meet dollar demand from state-run oil companies and introduced a tool requiring banks to park cash against certain foreign-exchange transactions. That followed record dollar inflows from a special diaspora deposit program. The rupee ended at 94.94 to a dollar Friday, having tumbled close to record lows near 97 earlier in the month.
不过,外汇策略师预计,除非通胀缓解、实际收益率改善或经济增长走强,否则压力将持续存在。美国银行预计,到年底卢比将走弱至1美元兑98卢比。
Still, currency strategists expect the strain to persist unless inflation eases, real yields improve or economic growth strengthens. Bank of America Corp. sees the rupee weakening to 98 a dollar by year-end.
马尔霍特拉重申,印度储备银行并不“为卢比设定任何价格或水平目标”,而是力求确保外汇市场有序运行。他说,印度储备银行过去在发现投机行为或过度波动时,从未犹豫采取行动。
Malhotra reiterated the RBI doesn’t “target any price or level for the rupee,” but instead seeks to ensure orderly conditions in the foreign-exchange market. The RBI hasn’t hesitated in the past to act when it sees speculative behavior or excessive volatility, he said.
这位印度央行行长为加息决定进行了辩护,称借贷成本上升对于遏制价格压力是必要的。他说:“如果通胀高企,那就像是对所有人征税。”
The RBI governor defended the decision to raise interest rates, saying the higher cost of borrowing was necessary to contain price pressures. “If there is high inflation, then it’s like a tax on everyone,” he said.
央行本月将基准利率上调至5.5%,这是近四年来的首次加息。经济学家预计,未来几个月将有更多加息,基准利率明年可能升至6.25%。央行下一次政策会议将于12月2日至4日举行。
The central bank lifted its benchmark rate to 5.5% this month, its first increase in nearly four years. Economists expect more increases in coming months, potentially taking the benchmark rate as high as 6.25% next year. The central bank will hold its next policy meeting on Dec. 2-4.
央行周五发布的公报称,近几个月来总体通胀有所回升,主要受食品和燃料价格压力推动,且出现越来越多迹象表明通胀正在变得更加广泛。公报警告称,潜在的二轮效应需要“更严格的警惕”,尤其是在需求状况依然强劲的情况下。
The central bank’s bulletin released Friday said headline inflation had firmed in recent months, largely due to food and fuel price pressures, with growing signs that it was becoming more broadbased. It warned that potential second-round effects warranted “stricter vigilance,” particularly as demand conditions remain strong.
9月份消费者通胀率为5.54%。印度储备银行(RBI)的目标通胀率为4%,波动区间为2%至6%。
Consumer inflation stood at 5.54% in September. The RBI targets a reading of 4%, with a range of 2%-6%.
“通胀处于高位,”马尔霍特拉在活动上表示,“但仍未超出容忍区间。”
“Inflation is elevated,” Malhotra said at the event, “but still, it’s not out of the tolerance band.”