尼梅什·沃拉和贾斯普里特·卡尔拉 孟买,10月12日 - 六位银行家表示,印度央行最新的支撑暴跌卢比的措施将提高防范进一步疲软的保护成本,并放缓此前成为货币额外拖累的对冲热潮。
MUMBAI, Oct 12 - The Indian central bank's latest measures to support the plunging rupee will raise the cost of buying protection against further weakness and slow a hedging surge that had become an additional drag on the currency, six bankers said.
印度卢比是亚洲表现最差的货币之一,今年已亏损近7%,一直承受着油价飙升和本地股市大规模外资流出的持续压力。
The Indian rupee, the region's worst-performing currency, with losses of nearly 7% this year, has faced persistent pressure from surging oil prices and heavy foreign outflows from local equities.
尽管通过特殊美元存款计划筹集了1400亿美元并提高了利率,卢比上周仍一度逼近对美元96.96的历史低点,凸显印度储备银行在稳定货币方面面临的挑战。
The rupee fell near its all-time low of 96.96 against the dollar last week, despite $140 billion raised via special dollar deposit schemes and higher interest rates, underscoring the challenge the Reserve Bank of India faces in stabilizing the currency.
央行目前正通过要求银行对大规模对冲持有准备金,并限制取消卢比关联衍生品合约后重新预订的常见做法,来遏制企业对对冲的需求。
The central bank is now trying to temper corporate demand for hedging by asking banks to maintain reserves against large hedges while limiting the common practice of rebooking cancelled rupee-linked derivative contracts.
银行家们表示,这些措施可能使对冲成本增加80至150个基点,具体取决于银行将多少额外成本转嫁给客户。他们要求匿名,因为未获授权向媒体发表言论。
The measures could increase hedging costs by 80-150 basis points, depending on how much of the additional cost banks pass on to clients, the bankers said, requesting anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to the media.
一位银行家表示,银行通常按分(paisa)计收取固定利润 margin 给进口商,对中大型客户而言这一费用相对较小,对小型客户则略高。他表示,这种做法如今已不再可行。
Banks typically charge importers a fixed margin in paisa terms for such transactions, which is relatively small for medium- and large-sized clients and somewhat higher for smaller ones, one of the bankers said. That he said is no longer feasible.
结算所数据显示,9月企业购买远期美元达到创纪录的770亿美元,较去年同期增长80%,而对应的销售则相对疲软,仅为410亿美元。
Corporate purchases of forward dollars rose to a record $77 billion in September, up 80% from a year earlier, while corresponding sales were relatively subdued at $41 billion, clearing house data showed.
银行家表示,这些措施旨在通过增加企业反复取消和重新预订头寸的难度来遏制投机行为,同时提高对冲交易的合规要求。“午夜油”RBI的限制措施让市场参与者措手不及,并促使财政官员与企业客户在周末进行了大量通话和会议,正如上述三位银行家所言。"银行家们在这些措施出台后通宵工作,方式与RBI此前的做法类似,"一位大型全球贷款机构的外汇销售人员表示,其团队匆忙建立程序、解答客户查询并审查监管语言,以确保周一早上交易前系统就绪。
Bankers said the measures aim to curb speculative activity by making it harder for companies to repeatedly cancel and rebook positions, while increasing compliance requirements for hedging transactions. 'MIDNIGHT OIL' The RBI's curbs caught market participants off guard and prompted a flurry of calls and meetings between treasury officials and corporate clients over the weekend, three of the bankers cited above said. "Bankers burnt midnight oil after the measures, similar to how the RBI did it appears," a foreign exchange salesperson at a large global lender said, whose team rushed to set up procedures, answer client queries and vet regulatory language to have systems in place for Monday morning trading.
这些措施在纽约交易时段引发了卢比的上涨,预计在周一上午9点(IST)岸内市场开盘后这一趋势将继续。银行家们的美元-卢比远期溢价预计将随着卢比的上涨而下降。
The steps sparked a rally in the rupee in New York trading hours, which is expected to extend after onshore markets open on Monday at 9 a.m. IST. Bankers' dollar-rupee forward premiums are set to fall as the rupee surges.
除了收紧对企业美元需求的限制外,RBI还通过允许石油营销公司通过特殊窗口直接从央行购买美元,以缓解对卢比的压力。"RBI正直接针对每日美元需求的两大主要来源:石油公司和进口商,"麦克莱金融副总裁库纳尔·库拉尼说道。"然而,过去的经验表明,此类应对措施的持续效果有限,除非货币面临的根本压力开始缓解。"
Beyond tightening curbs on corporate dollar demand, the RBI has sought to temper pressure on the rupee by allowing oil marketing companies to buy dollars directly from the central bank through a special window. "The RBI is directly targeting two major sources of daily dollar demand: oil companies and importers," said Kunal Kurani, vice president at Mecklai Financial. "However, past experience suggests that these kinds of fixes have limited staying power unless the underlying pressures on the currency begin to abate."