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印度储备银行引导石油美元需求转向并提高部分外汇对冲成本后,卢比跳涨1%Rupee jumps 1% after RBI redirects oil dollar demand, raises cost of some FX hedges

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孟买,10月12日 - 印度卢比周一开盘时上涨1%,因为央行通过将石油公司的美元购买从现货市场转移出来,缓解了对货币的压力,并采取措施抑制企业对远期美元的需求。卢比兑美元开盘价为95.76,而周五收盘价为96.73。卢比成为亚洲外汇市场的明星表现者,而大多数地区同业货币则在窄幅区间内交易。尽管出现反弹,卢比今年仍下跌6.6%。

MUMBAI, Oct 12 - The Indian rupee surged 1% at open on Monday after the central bank alleviated pressure on the currency by diverting oil companies’ dollar purchases away from the spot market and moved to temper corporate demand for forward dollars The rupee opened at 95.76 to the dollar, having settled at 96.73 on Friday. The currency was a standout performer in Asia’s foreign-exchange markets, with most regional peers trading in a narrow range. Despite the rally, the currency is still down 6.6% this year.

印度储备银行周六推出了一系列措施,旨在解决卢比面临的两个主要压力来源:石油营销公司持续的美元需求,这一需求因原油价格高企而被放大;以及企业为对冲进一步货币疲软而产生的需求。

The Reserve Bank of India on Saturday unveiled a series of measures aimed at addressing two key sources of pressure on the rupee: persistent dollar demand from oil marketing companies, which has been amplified by high crude prices, and demand from corporates seeking to hedge against further currency weakness.

对进一步疲软的预期促使进口商增加远期美元的购买,以防范未来更高的成本。

Expectations of further weakness had encouraged importers to step up purchases of forward dollars to protect against higher future costs.

这种对冲需求反过来又加剧了对货币的压力,形成了贬值预期、增加对冲和进一步疲软的恶性循环。

That hedging demand, in turn, added to strain on the currency, creating a cycle of expectations of depreciation, increased hedging and further weakness.

印度储备银行禁止企业重新预订已取消的卢比挂钩衍生品,降低了无基础敞口交易的门槛,并要求银行对某些外汇合同预留20%的现金,这可能会增加对冲卢比贬值的成本。

The RBI barred firms from rebooking cancelled rupee-linked derivatives, slashed the threshold for transactions without underlying exposure and mandated that banks set aside 20% cash against certain FX contracts, potentially raising the cost of hedging against rupee weakness.

花旗银行在一份报告中表示,该方案提高了卢比贬值交易的短期成本。

The package raises the near-term cost of rupee depreciation trades, Citi said in a note.

银行家表示,这些措施并不适用于所有外汇交易,仅适用于经常账户交易。20%的现金要求不适用于对冲外商借款的企业或对冲其在印度投资的外国机构投资者。

The measures do not apply to all foreign-exchange transactions, but only current account transactions, bankers said. The 20% cash requirement does not cover companies hedging external commercial borrowings or foreign portfolio investors hedging their investments in India.

尽管卢比在印度储备银行推出措施后出现了显著反弹,但分析人士表示,这种复苏的可持续性将取决于潜在压力是否得到缓解。

While the rupee has rallied sharply in the aftermath of the RBI's measures, the sustainability of the recovery would depend on whether underlying pressures let up, analysts say.

除了初始影响之外,卢比的走势将继续受到原油价格、外国投资组合流动以及美元整体方向的影响,法国兴业银行在一份报告中表示。

"Beyond the initial impact, the rupee’s trajectory will continue to be shaped by crude oil prices, foreign portfolio flows and the broader direction of the US dollar," Societe Generale said in a note.