印度卢比从接近历史低位的急剧反弹恐将失去动力，因高油价和持续的美元需求限制了进一步上涨的空间。
The Indian rupee’s sharp rebound from near a record low is set to lose steam as high oil prices and persistent dollar demand limit the scope for further gains.
美国银行预计卢比将在年底前贬值至98兑1美元，大华银行预测为97，丹麦银行预测为96.64。周四该货币下跌0.4%至94.8262，结束了将其推升至四个月高位的八连涨。
Bank of America Corp. sees the rupee weakening to 98 per dollar by year-end, United Overseas Bank Ltd. forecasts 97, while Danske Bank A/S sees 96.64. The currency weakened 0.4% to 94.8262 on Thursday, ending an eight-day rally that had taken it to a four-month high.
根据道富投资管理的说法，印度储备银行十多年来最激进的措施给卢比提供了一些喘息空间，但除非通胀缓解、实际收益率改善或经济增强，否则货币面临的压力可能会卷土重来。9月消费者物价涨幅升至近两年高位，而每桶110美元以上的油价正在增加进口成本。
The Reserve Bank of India’s most aggressive measures in more than a decade have given the rupee some breathing room, but pressure on the currency is likely to return unless inflation eases, real yields improve or the economy strengthens, according to State Street Investment Management. Consumer-price growth hit an almost two-year high in September, while oil above $110 a barrel is adding to import costs.
这家总部位于波士顿的资管公司的高级货币投资组合经理阿伦·赫德表示：“我们预计美元兑卢比在未来一年将向99-100移动，如果发生另一轮重大油价冲击或避险情绪升温，可能会更快达到这一水平。”
“We see USD/INR moving toward 99-100 over the next year, potentially faster under another major oil or risk-off shock,” said Aron Hurd, senior portfolio manager for currencies at the Boston-based money manager.
本月出台的措施包括将每月需要约100亿美元进口原油的国营炼油厂排除在市场之外，并提高企业套期保值成本。这些举措显示，央行为防止卢比跌破每美元97这一关口（该汇率于10月9日曾逼近该水平），已深度介入这座4万亿美元规模的经济体。
Measures unveiled this month included taking state-run oil refiners, which need about $10 billion a month for crude imports, out of the market and making hedging more expensive for companies. The moves show how far the central bank is reaching into the $4 trillion economy to keep the rupee from falling past 97 per dollar, a level it approached on Oct. 9.
不过，策略师们表示，这些步骤仅遏制了美元需求，并未解决高油价带来的压力。渣打银行东盟与南亚外汇研究主管迪维亚·德维什表示，为国营炼厂设立的特别美元窗口不太可能成为“局势扭转点”，因为石油支付将持续进行，消耗印度的外汇储备。
Still, strategists say the steps have curbed dollar demand without addressing pressure from high oil prices. The special dollar window for state refiners is unlikely to be a “game changer” because oil payments will continue, drawing down India’s foreign-exchange reserves, said Divya Devesh, head of Asean and South Asia FX research at Standard Chartered Bank.
更大、更持久的挑战是资本流动。美国银行预计到2027年底卢比将贬值至99兑1美元，而三菱UFJ金融集团预测到9月结束的季度将达到97.50。三菱UFJ金融集团高级经济学家Michael Wan表示，净外国直接投资的下降使该货币更加依赖波动性较大的投资组合流入。
The bigger, more persistent challenge is capital flows. Bank of America sees the rupee at 99 per dollar by the end of 2027, while MUFG forecasts 97.50 by the quarter ending in September. A drop in net foreign direct investment has left the currency more dependent on volatile portfolio flows, according to MUFG senior economist Michael Wan.
他写道：“最终，要缓解卢比面临的根本压力，需要印度基础性资金流入发生变化。”
“Ultimately for the underlying pressure on the rupee to ease would require changes in underlying fundamental flows to India,” he wrote.