卢比回来了！而这一切仅仅归功于印度储备银行（RBI）的一些温和管理手段。在过去几个月里，该央行采取了多项措施，包括：以诱人的利率和汇率担保吸引海外印度人的美元存款；在公开市场上斥资数百亿美元买入卢比；严格限制投资者对该货币进行投机；并于10月10日对那些确实需要对冲自身外币风险的企业施加了惩罚性成本。此后，卢比汇率已从兑美元略低于97的水平回升，并稳定在略低于95的水平。快戴上派对帽庆祝吧。
THE RUPEE is back, baby! And all it took was some gentle management by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Over the past few months the central bank has, among other things, wooed dollar deposits from overseas Indians with juicy interest rates and currency guarantees; spent tens of billions of dollars to buy rupees in the open market; severely limited the ability of investors to speculate on the currency; and, on October 10th, imposed punitive costs on businesses that legitimately need to hedge their own foreign-currency exposure. The rupee has since recovered from just under 97 to the dollar and settled at just under 95. Break out the party hats.
或者也许并不值得庆祝。作为收盘价，“略低于95”是卢比在3月下旬触及的水平。印度政府对本国货币可能突破这一关口的想法感到如此难以接受，以至于印度储备银行采取了一系列措施，被一位分析师形容为在短短几天内就让十年的市场自由化进程倒退。这次干预带来了一些缓解。但几周内，该货币汇率就突破了95，并不断向交易员眼中闪烁着霓虹灯般光芒的“100”大关迈进。经济学家阿贾伊·沙阿将这种动态描述为“反复出现的整数关口之战”。很少有数字比“100”这个整数更具象征意义了。
Or perhaps not. “Just under 95”, as a close-of-day price, is the level the rupee hit in late March. So unacceptable was the idea that India’s beloved currency might cross that threshold that the RBI imposed a set of measures described by one analyst as rolling back a decade of market liberalisation in just a few days. The intervention brought some relief. But the currency crossed 95 within weeks, marching ever onwards towards the big “100” flashing like a neon front of traders’ eyes. Ajay Shah, an economist, describes this dynamic as “the recurring round-number skirmish”. Few numbers are rounder than a century.
自独立以来，尤其是在1991年发生国际收支危机后，卢比价值的任何大幅下跌都被视为一种民族耻辱。2013年，时任古吉拉特邦首席部长的纳伦德拉·莫迪曾巧妙地利用卢比的大幅贬值，将当时国大党领导的政府描绘成腐败无能。如果现在莫迪总理任内卢比跌至三位数，那将相当尴尬。这也将为反对派提供一个绝佳的攻击点，而此时距离拥有2.4亿人口的“风向标”邦——北方邦的选举仅剩几个月时间。这不禁让人想起“作法自毙”这个词。
Ever since independence and even more so since a balance-of-payments crisis in 1991, any steep fall in the value of the rupee has been seen as a national humiliation. In 2013 Narendra Modi, then chief minister of the state of Gujarat, cannily used its sharp depreciation to paint the Congress-led government of the day as corrupt and incompetent. For Mr Modi to preside over the rupee’s slide into triple digits now would be rather embarrassing. It would also provide the opposition with a delicious attack line just months before elections in Uttar Pradesh, a bellwether state of 240m people. The words “hoist” and “petard” come to mind.
当然，印度储备银行是一家独立的、以通胀为目标的中央银行。它表示，其目标并非特定的汇率。它强调，其措施仅旨在“确保外汇市场有序运行”。然而，其行动却说明了另一回事。正如该行前行长杜武里·苏巴拉奥所指出的，问题在于“失败的防御比不防御更糟糕”。如果央行轻易妥协，市场可能会开始认为他们可以对其施加压力，从而进一步加剧卢比的贬值压力。
The RBI is, of course, an independent, inflation-targeting central bank. It aims for no specific exchange rate, it says. Its measures are designed only “to ensure orderly functioning of the foreign-exchange market”, it stresses. Yet its actions argue otherwise. The problem is that “a failed defence is worse than no defence”, as Duvvuri Subbarao, a former governor of the bank, has noted. If the bank folds easily, markets may start to believe they can push it around and pile yet more pressure on the rupee.
那么……那又怎样？一种货币的价值取决于人们愿意为它支付的价格。这由央行无法控制的力量所决定。近年来，全球资本被海外的人工智能投资、美国不断上升的利率以及印度估值过高的市场所吸引，从而降低了对卢比的需求。自3月以来，随着中东爆发了另一场不必要的战争，能源价格飙升，增加了印度对美元的需求，这更是雪上加霜。只要这些条件持续存在，卢比就会走弱。
And…so what? A currency is worth whatever people are willing to pay for it. That is determined by forces outside the central bank’s control. In recent years global capital has been lured away by AI investments abroad, rising interest rates in America and overvalued markets in India, lowering demand for the rupee. It has not helped that energy prices have shot up since March after someone started another needless war in the Middle East, boosting India’s demand for dollars. As long as these conditions persist, the rupee will weaken.
印度储备银行进行防御的成本正在不断上升。仅在9月份，随着央行抛售美元以买入卢比，印度的外汇储备就减少了约500亿美元。而且，对该货币的押注正从金融市场转向实体经济。预期进一步贬值的出口商将推迟将现金汇回印度。进口商将囤积库存。上个财年汇回了1440亿美元（约占国内生产总值的3%）的印度侨民可能会推迟汇款。印度居民购买黄金的数量也将超过往常。
The costs of the RBI’s defence are escalating. India’s foreign-exchange reserves fell by some $50bn in September alone as the central bank sold dollars to buy rupees. And bets on the currency are moving from financial markets into the real economy. Exporters anticipating further depreciation will delay bringing cash back to India. Importers will fill their warehouses. Members of India’s diaspora, who sent home $144bn or about 3% of GDP last financial year, may delay remittances. Resident Indians will buy even more gold than they usually do.
另一个代价是，限制对冲——加上不可预测的政策制定，随后又进行澄清和反转——可能会阻碍有助于支撑卢比的资本流入。然而，最大的代价是印度储备银行的信誉，它面临着看起来像是在进行一场政治斗争的风险。交易员现在认为97是其防止汇率跌至100的红线。但捍卫这个数字并没有充分的理由。
Another cost is that limiting hedging—along with unpredictable policy-making followed by clarifications and reversals—could discourage the capital inflows that would help bolster the rupee. The biggest cost, though, is to the credibility of the RBI, which risks looking as if it is fighting a political battle. Traders now believe 97 is its red line to prevent a collapse to 100. But there is no good reason to defend that number.
目前，印度储备银行已经遏制了货币的跌势。在最新公告发布后的第一个交易日，卢比升值了1%，此后一直保持稳定。得益于10月21日印度有史以来最大规模的首次公开募股（IPO）带来的外国需求，卢比甚至还获得了一点提振。而且，谁知道呢，印度可能会走运。美国中期选举中共和党的惨败可能会削弱美元。人工智能泡沫可能会破裂。伊朗战争可能会结束，霍尔木兹海峡可能会重新开放。各种事情都有可能发生。但在这些事情发生之前，捍卫一个整数关口的代价只会越来越高。■
The RBI has, for now, arrested the currency’s decline. The rupee appreciated by 1% on the first trading day after the latest announcements and has since remained stable. It even enjoyed a little boost thanks to foreign demand for shares in India’s biggest ever IPO on October 21st. And, who knows, India may get lucky. A devastating defeat for the Republicans at America’s midterm election could weaken the dollar. The AI bubble could burst. The Iran war could end and the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. All sorts of things could happen. Until they do, the costs of defending a round number will mount ever higher. ■