由斯瓦迪普·西尔卡尔和巴斯卡尔·杜塔撰写印度央行在卢比币上采取了各种支持措施，但仍未能阻止该货币触及历史最低点。
India’s central bank has put all kinds of support around the rupee, and it’s only just stopping the currency from hitting a record low.
该货币距离5月份创下的每美元96.97印度卢比的最弱水平仅下跌0.2%，凸显投资者对高位原油价格的担忧，同时全球收益率上升。印度储备银行的干预导致其外汇储备在截至10月2日的四周内下降了510亿美元，而近四年来的首次加息几乎毫无帮助，无法阻止卢比币的下滑。"RBI储备的急剧下降令人担忧，这是市场密切关注的问题之一，"梅克莱金螺螺财务服务私人有限公司副总裁Ritesh Bhansali表示。"
The currency is 0.2% away from its weakest level of 96.97 rupee against the dollar touched in May, highlighting investor worries over elevated crude prices while global yields surge. The Reserve Bank of India’s intervention contributed to its foreign exchange stockpile plummeting $51 billion in the four weeks through Oct. 2, while the first rate hike in nearly four years did little to stem the slide. “The sharp decline in the RBI’s reserves is a cause of concern and it is something that the market is closely watching,” said Ritesh Bhansali, deputy chief executive officer at Mecklai Financial Services Pvt.
目前，央行的干预是唯一将卢比币维持在当前水平的因素。"周五，印度的储备连续第四周下降至7340亿美元，此前在截至9月4日的一周内曾达到7850亿美元高点，原因是RBI吸引美元存款的特别窗口吸引了1330亿美元的资金流入。该储备的急剧下降表明超过三分之一的流入资金已消失。该下降也部分反映了美元走强的影响。
“At present, the central bank’s intervention is the only factor that is keeping the rupee where it is.”India’s reserves fell for a fourth straight week to $734 billion on Friday, after touching a high of $785 billion in the week through Sept. 4, as RBI’s special window to attract dollar deposits drew $133 billion. The sharp drop in the pile suggests more than a third of those inflows have already been lost. The fall also partly reflects the impact of a stronger dollar.
RBI总裁桑杰·马拉蒂亚周三试图缓解担忧，表示储备仍然充足，进口覆盖率约为十一个月，外部债务为94.4%。他还表示，卢比币可能被低估，市场在短期内可能会出现非理性行为。
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday sought to allay concerns, saying reserves continue to remain adequate with import cover of around eleven months and external debt of 94.4%. He also said the rupee may be undervalued and markets can be irrational in the short run.
今年以来，卢比币在亚洲表现最差，下跌逾7%，这与印度作为主要石油进口国对中东冲突的脆弱性有关。今年以来，全球投资者抛售了近300亿美元的本地股票。飙升的美国国债收益率也在压制卢比币，因为印度资产对外国投资者来说吸引力下降。
The rupee is down more than 7% this year in Asia’s worst performance as India being a major oil importer remains vulnerable to the Middle East conflict. Global investors have sold almost $30 billion of local stocks this year. Surging US bond yields are also weighing on the rupee as Indian assets become less attractive to foreign investors.
RBI一直在隔夜市场抛售美元以维护卢比币值，并在远期市场进行卖买掉期交易以消除过剩流动性——这两项措施均导致头寸外储下降，交易员称。央行2000亿美元的负向远期头寸（反映其偿还义务）意味着实际储备甚至更低。
The RBI has been selling dollars in the spot market to defend the rupee and doing sell/buy swaps in forwards to remove excess liquidity — both of which are leading to drop in the headline reserves, traders said. The central bank’s negative forward book of $200 billion, which reflects its repayment obligations, means effective reserves are even lower.
RBI周三改变立场为“ calibrated tightening”， signaling进一步加息以应对日益 intensify的价格压力。然而，卢比币仍下滑，因为交易员认为这些措施不足以抵消推动货币下跌的力量。周四卢比币几无变动，此前曾上涨0.1%至每美元96.68，交易员称这与RBI的干预有关。
The RBI changed its stance to calibrated tightening Wednesday, signaling further hikes as price pressures intensify. Yet the rupee slid as traders viewed the measures as inadequate to offset the forces pushing the currency lower. The currency was little changed Thursday after gaining as much as 0.1% to 96.68 a dollar with traders citing RBI intervention.
“央行陷入了非常困难的境地，我的看法是，从这个螺旋下降的局面中走出来，唯一的出路是一次性加息约100个基点，”DBS银行在孟买的财库主管Ashhish Vaidya表示。“地缘政治冲突持续时间越长，油价就越高，我们应对的窗口就会越来越窄。”HDFC银行预计，截至3月结束的财年下半年，卢比币将在96-98区间波动。Mecklai称，若突破97关口，卢比币可能达到98.50。
“The central bank has been put into a very difficult spot and to my mind the only way out of this spiral is to hike rates sufficiently like about a 100 basis points in one go,” said Ashhish Vaidya, head of treasury at DBS Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. “The longer the geopolitical conflict persists and oil remains high our window to manage this will get narrow and narrower.”HDFC Bank Ltd. sees the currency pair in a range of 96-98 for the second half of the fiscal year that ends in March. A breach of 97 could see the rupee at 98.50, according to Mecklai.
HDFC银行首席经济学家Sakshi Gupta在一份报告中写道：“利率上调在短期内对货币的支撑作用有限，且这种弱势主要由更广泛的因素驱动，包括油价、股市估值、外资机构的资金流出、AI贸易以及美元的强劲势头。”她预计央行将继续“在外汇市场积极干预，以限制卢比币的贬值速度”。
“Interest-rate hikes offer a weak defence in the short term for the currency and the weakness in being driven by broader factors including oil prices, equity valuations and FII outflows, AI trade and US dollar strength,” HDFC Bank principal economist Sakshi Gupta wrote in a note. She expects the central bank will continue to “actively intervene in the FX market to limit the pace of depreciation in the rupee.”