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银行家估计:印度央行在卢比保卫战中已动用1400亿美元外汇储备的一半India's RBI has spent half of $140 billion FX capital haul in rupee defence, bankers estimate

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2025年8月1日,印度孟买,一名男子在印度储备银行(RBI)总部外的卢比标志和印度硬币装置旁打手机。路透社/Hemanshi KamaniA man speaks on his mobile phone next to an installation of the Rupee logo and Indian currency coins outside the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) headquarters in Mumbai, India, August 1, 2025. REUTERS/Hemanshi Kamani

印度今年早些时候通过特殊措施动用的超过1400亿美元外汇储备,目前已使用约一半,这凸显了对卢比的压力以及央行扭转局势的决心。

India has used up about half of the more than $140 billion it mobilised through special measures to bolster its foreign exchange war chest earlier this year, highlighting pressure on the rupee and the central bank's determination to turn the tide.

印度储备银行在现货市场上出售美元以支撑本币,同时通过美元-卢比买入/卖出掉期操作吸收银行体系中的卢比盈余流动性,导致了这一储备的减少,六家银行的经济学家和外汇交易员表示。

The Reserve Bank of India's spot market dollar sales to support the local currency, alongside dollar-rupee sell/buy swaps aimed at absorbing surplus rupee liquidity in the banking system, are behind the drawdown, economists and FX traders across six banks said.

高油价、美国国债收益率近期激增以及持续的外资股票流出对卢比造成压力,迫使印度储备银行加大干预力度以对抗本币疲软,从而限制对通胀和更广泛金融稳定的连锁风险。

Pressure on the rupee from high oil prices, a recent surge in US Treasury yields and ongoing foreign equity outflows has compelled the RBI to step up intervention against local currency weakness, in order to limit knock-on risks to inflation and broader financial stability.

自6月8日其吸引外币流入的特殊措施生效以来,印度储备银行通过现货美元买卖和美元-卢比掉期已动用约750亿至800亿美元,三位经济学家估算。

The RBI has deployed around $75 billion to $80 billion through spot dollar sales and dollar-rupee swaps since its special measures to attract foreign-currency inflows came into effect on June 8, three economists estimate.

这些经济学家通过调整印度储备银行每周五公布的外汇储备周变化数据,剔除重估影响后得出上述估算。

Economists derived their estimates by adjusting weekly changes in India's foreign-exchange reserves, published by the RBI every Friday, to exclude revaluation effects.

印度的外汇储备在10月2日降至7346亿美元,较9月第一周的峰值下降约510亿美元。

India's foreign-exchange reserves fell to $734.6 billion through October 2, down about $51 billion from their peak in the first week of September.

“在扣除远期空头和黄金后,可用储备的急剧下降已达到显著水平。若继续下降,可能引发对印度储备银行捍卫卢比能力的质疑,并助长更多投机行为,”经纪公司Ambit的分析师在一份报告中表示。

"The sharp fall in usable reserves, after adjusting for forward shorts and gold, has reached noticeable levels. A continued fall could raise doubts about the RBI’s ability to defend the rupee and fuel more speculation," analysts at Ambit, a brokerage, said in a note.

截至9月末,印度储备银行的远期美元净负债约为2000亿美元,而其黄金持仓价值在10月2日达到1064亿美元。

At the end of September, the RBI's net forward dollar liabilities stood at about $200 billion while the value of its gold holdings was at $106.4 billion through October 2.

经济学家对干预规模的估计与处理现货和掉期交易的银行交易员的估计相吻合。他们的计算基于与其他银行家和外汇经纪人的讨论,以及基于各种市场参数开发的专有模型。印度储备银行未能立即回应置评请求。

The economists' estimates for the size of intervention are in line with those of traders at banks that handle spot and swap transactions. Their calculations draw on discussions with other bankers and FX brokers and proprietary models developed using various market parameters. The Reserve Bank of India did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

上周末,印度储备银行推出了一项旨在直接抑制市场美元需求的措施。它为石油公司开设了一个特殊窗口,使其能够直接从央行购买美元,从而将其需求从公开市场转移开。

Last weekend, the RBI introduced measures aimed at directly curbing dollar demand in the market. It opened a special window for oil companies to buy dollars directly from the central bank, drawing their demand away from the open market.

它还对某些远期美元买入交易实施了现金保证金要求,使进口商对冲货币敞口的成本更高,通过提高成本来抑制美元买入。

It also imposed cash margin requirements on certain forward dollar purchases, making it more expensive for importers to hedge their currency exposure, with higher costs aimed at discouraging dollar buying.

“在过去六个月里,每当汇率接近97/美元时,印度储备银行都会反复采取重大措施进行干预,表明这一水平是印度储备银行的隐性容忍阈值,”Ambit表示。

"Over the last six months, the RBI has repeatedly stepped in with major measures whenever the exchange rate approached the 97/USD mark, signalling this level as the RBI’s implicit tolerance threshold," Ambit said.