
印度卢比在周一开盘时可能面临压力,或将跌破95这一心理关口,油价高企的压力叠加上周支撑性资金流入料将不再出现。
The Indian rupee is likely to come under pressure at Monday's open, potentially slipping below the psychological level of 95, with an oil price overhang compounded by the likely absence of last week's supportive flows.
交易员称,卢比预计将在95.00至95.04区间开盘,上周五收于94.94卢比兑1美元。
The rupee is expected to open in the 95.00-95.04 range, per traders, after settling at 94.94 per dollar on Friday.
上周卢比在94.32至94.97之间交投,受与Jio Platforms首次公开募股相关的资金流入及头寸平仓推动,卢比走势偏向区间较强一端。配售定于周一进行,股票定于周三在交易所上市。
The rupee traded between 94.32 and 94.97 last week, moving toward the firmer side of the range on inflows linked to the Jio Platforms IPO and position unwinding. The allotment is on Monday, with the shares scheduled to list on the bourses on Wednesday.
银行人士表示,此次IPO吸引了强劲的外国机构投资者需求,其中部分相关资金流可能进入即期市场,为卢比提供支撑。
The IPO attracted robust foreign institutional investor demand, with part of the associated flows likely hitting the spot market and lending support to the rupee, bankers said.
一家私营银行的外汇交易员表示,上周出现的资金流支撑不会重现,而石油仍拖累市场情绪。他补充说,这使卢比的风险天平偏向下方,央行干预仍是关键。
The flow support seen last week will not recur, and oil remains a drag on sentiment, a currency trader at a private sector bank said. That tilts the rupee's risk balance to the downside, with central bank intervention remaining the key, he added.
目前,石油炼油商对美元的需求并非卢比的直接影响因素,因为印度储备银行的特别窗口允许它们在常规市场之外满足外汇需求。
Dollar demand from oil refiners is not currently a direct factor for the rupee with the Reserve Bank of India's special window letting them meet their foreign-exchange requirements outside the usual market.
然而,布伦特原油价格接近每桶115美元,仍是卢比面临的关键宏观担忧,这恶化了外部前景,推高了套期保值需求,并抑制了外国证券投资流入。
However, Brent crude at near $115 a barrel remains a key macro concern for the rupee, worsening the external outlook, driving hedging demand and dampening foreign portfolio flows.
布伦特原油上周上涨超过6%,创下六个月新高,沙特阿拉伯持续遭袭使供应担忧持续受到关注。
Brent climbed more than 6% last week to a six-month high, with ongoing attacks on Saudi Arabia keeping supply concerns in focus.
除石油外,美联储的政策决定将是本周的关键焦点。尽管市场普遍预期将暂停加息,但投资者将寻找有关利率前景的线索,尤其是12月是否可能再次加息。
Beyond oil, the Federal Reserve's policy decision will be a key focus this week. While a pause is widely expected, markets will be looking for clues on the rate outlook, particularly whether another hike is likely in December.