首起与预测市场相关的刑事案件即将进入审判阶段。白领律师们表示，这可能会促使更多针对该行业的诉讼案件被提起——因为该行业正处于快速增长之中。
The first criminal case centered on prediction-market bets is proceeding toward trial — and white-collar lawyers say it could result in an uptick of prosecutions involving an industry that’s enjoying explosive growth.
检察官称，美国陆军士兵加农·范戴克（Gannon Van Dyke）利用了有关委内瑞拉前领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）被捕的机密信息，在Polymarket平台上进行投注。据检察官透露，范戴克共投注了33,034美元，最终获得了超过40万美元的收益。
Prosecutors say U.S. Army soldier Gannon Van Dyke used confidential information about the capture of then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to bet on the rendition through Polymarket. Van Dyke allegedly placed $33,034 in bets, for a total payout of more than $400,000, according to prosecutors.
范戴克的律师请求联邦法官驳回起诉书，理由是预测市场交易并不属于“掉期交易”（swap），因此不应受到《商品交易法》（Commodity Exchange Act）的管辖。该法律主要规范商品期货、期权及掉期交易。掉期交易是一种金融协议，双方通过投机现实世界的事件结果来交换支付。
Van Dyke’s lawyers are asking a federal judge to toss the indictment by arguing that a prediction-market bet isn’t a “swap,” and therefore can’t be prosecuted under the Commodity Exchange Act, the federal law that regulates commodity futures, options and swaps. A swap is a financial agreement where parties seek to exchange payments by speculating on real-world outcomes.
如果联邦地方法官玛格丽特·加内特（Margaret Garnett）同意范戴克律师的观点，这可能会阻止检察官提起类似的案件。然而，如果加内特批准起诉，关注预测市场发展情况的律师们预计这将促使检察官继续追究更多类似案件。
If U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett agrees with Van Dyke’s lawyers on that interpretation, it might dissuade prosecutors from bringing similar cases. If, however, Garnett allows the charges to stand, lawyers who are following prediction-market developments say they expect it will unleash prosecutors to pursue additional cases.
“根据这个案件的结果，我认为未来会出现更多此类案件，”曾在曼哈顿联邦检察官办公室工作、现任Dentons LLP律师事务所合伙人的路易斯·佩莱格里诺（Louis Pellegrino）说道。
“Depending on how this case turns out, I think you're going to see more of them,” said Louis Pellegrino, a former federal prosecutor with the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office who is now a partner at Dentons LLP.
“这是一个非常有趣的测试案例，因为涉及的利害关系实在太大，”佩莱格里诺说。他在法学院毕业后曾在陆军担任上尉。“其中涉及情报问题，以及驻扎在战场的士兵们的实际安全问题等等。这里的利害关系远比某人穿什么衣服去奥斯卡颁奖典礼要严重得多。”在本月早些时候关于范戴克请求驳回起诉书的听证会上，作为拜登政府任命的法官，加内特似乎倾向于让案件继续进行下去。
“It's an interesting test case because it's truly high stakes,” said Pellegrino, who served as a captain in the Army following law school. “There are intelligence issues. There are real-world concerns for troops on the ground and that sort of thing,” he said. “The stakes are a lot higher than something like what dress somebody would wear to the Oscars.”At oral arguments earlier this month over Van Dyke’s motion to dismiss the indictment, Garnett, a Biden appointee, appeared likely to let the case move forward.
范戴克的律师试图辩称，对天气的押注应被视为一种掉期交易，因为其具有直接的财务和经济后果，这与范戴克据称关于马杜罗的押注形成对比。加内特拒绝接受这一类比，并举了一个例子：押注2026年是否会是一个超级厄尔尼诺年。
A lawyer for Van Dyke tried to argue that betting on the weather should be considered a swap because of its direct financial and economic consequences, in contrast to Van Dyke’s alleged bets about Maduro. Garnett resisted the comparison, offering the example of betting on whether 2026 will be a Super El Niño year.
加内特说：“虽然我认为我可能同意你的观点，即天气可能会产生大量的财务和经济影响，但我不确定我是否认同这样的观点：超级厄尔尼诺是一条可预测的、直接的、没有外部性或变数的路径，这与‘美国是否会推翻一个产油国的领导人’形成对比。”
“While I think I might agree with you that weather can have lots of financial and economic effects, I’m not sure I’m buying the idea that Super El Niño is a predictable, direct line without externalities or vagaries, as opposed to ‘is the United States going to depose the leader of a petrostate?’”Garnett said.
此次辩论吸引了近乎坐满的法庭旁听席，其中包括一名正在处理曼哈顿联邦检察官办公室起诉的另一起预测市场刑事案件的辩护律师。那起案件的核心是一名谷歌工程师，他据称利用关于热门互联网搜索的机密信息进行交易。
The arguments attracted a nearly full courtroom, including a defense lawyer working on the only other prediction-market criminal case being prosecuted by the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office. That one centers on a Google engineer who allegedly traded on confidential information about popular internet searches.
商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）执法主任大卫·米勒也出席了庭审。CFTC正在对范戴克提起一项平行的民事诉讼，该机构最近提出了一项法律区分，称预测市场属于其管辖范围，而赌场赌博和体育博彩则属于州法律管辖。
The enforcement director of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, David Miller, also attended. The CFTC is pursuing a parallel civil case against Van Dyke, and the agency has recently proposed a legal distinction between prediction markets — which it says fall under its jurisdiction — and casino gambling and sportsbooks, which it says fall under state laws.
这发生在各州与CFTC就谁应监管预测市场展开的法律斗争期间。
That comes during a legal fight between states and the CFTC over who should regulate prediction markets.
加内特关于允许案件进入审判的裁决预计将在未来几周内作出，审判定于12月初开始。
Garnett’s decision about whether to allow the case to proceed to trial is expected in the coming weeks, with the trial set for early December.
“我确实认为人们都在关注这一裁决，”西莉亚·科恩说，她是布鲁克林前联邦检察官，现为Ballard Spahr律师事务所的合伙人，曾撰文探讨预测市场起诉案件。
“I do think that people are watching this decision,” said Celia Cohen, former federal prosecutor in Brooklyn who has written about prediction-market prosecutions as a partner at Ballard Spahr.
“法律总是在追赶新技术或新做事方式，我们在加密货币市场也看到了这一点，但我认为这个案子确实引发了许多问题，”她说。“如果你看行为本身，你会想，好吧，这似乎有点问题……但这是正确的方式吗？这些法条适合用来监管这个吗？”
“The law is always catching up with new technology or new ways of doing things, and we saw this in the crypto market as well, but I think this case really raises a lot of questions,” she said. “If you look at the conduct itself, you think okay, this seems to be somewhat problematic … But is this the right way? Are these statutes appropriate to regulate this?”
科恩说，如果法官裁决支持检方，“这确实会为这里敞开更大的门。”
If the judge rules in prosecutors’ favor, Cohen said, “it really would open the door here more.”