康斯坦丁·托罗平 华盛顿 —— 国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯发布了一项新指令，告知部队人员不得利用“非公开信息”在预测市场上进行押注。
KONSTANTIN TOROPIN WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has issued a new directive telling troops they cannot use “nonpublic information” to make bets on prediction markets .
“我们的敌人在监视这些市场的动向，”赫格塞斯在一份日期为周二、经美联社审阅的备忘录中写道。“当一名美国现役军人、情报专业人员或其他国防部文职人员就军事结果进行金融交易时，他们就制造了一个信号。”这份单页文件此前已由哥伦比亚广播公司新闻部报道，其发布距离一名美国特种部队士兵被指控利用机密信息在预测市场 Polymarket 上赢取超过 40 万美元，已过去数月。该士兵曾参与旨在抓捕时任委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的军事行动。
“Our enemies watch movements in these markets,” Hegseth wrote in a memo dated Tuesday and reviewed by The Associated Press. “When an American Service member, intelligence professional, or other Department civilian engages in a financial transaction on a military outcome, they create a signal.”The one-page document, which was reported earlier by CBS News, comes months after a U.S. Special Forces soldier involved in the military operation to capture then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was charged with using classified information about the mission to win more than $400,000 on the prediction market Polymarket.
备忘录强调，部队人员被禁止同时利用机密信息和非机密但非公开信息，在 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 等平台上进行交易。备忘录称，违规者可能面临根据《统一军事司法典》或联邦法律实施的行政处罚和刑事指控。
The memo stresses that troops are forbidden from using both classified and unclassified but nonpublic information to make trades on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. It says violators could be subject to administrative punishment and criminal charges under the Uniform Code of Military Justice or federal law.
“除了作战安全，财务利益还会扭曲判断，”赫格塞斯在备忘录中说。“一名在袭击日期上押注的后勤兵，对该日期有利益关系。一名在结果上持有仓位的分析师，对该结果有利益关系。”当被问及这项新政策时，一名国防官员表示，五角大楼除了备忘录内容外，没有其他信息可提供。
“Beyond operational security, financial stakes can warp judgment,” Hegseth said in the memo. “A logistician with money riding on a strike date has an interest in that date. An analyst with a position on an outcome has an interest in that outcome.”When asked about the new policy, a defense official said the Pentagon had no other information to offer beyond the memo.
4 月，38 岁的特种部队资深军士长加农·肯·范戴克被联邦检察官和联邦监管机构指控，利用其作为特种部队成员的职务便利，在马杜罗可能被推翻的时间上进行了一系列押注，总额超过 3.25 万美元。
In April, 38-year-old Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged by federal prosecutors and federal regulators with using his access as a Special Forces member to place a series of bets that totaled more than $32,500 on when Maduro might be removed from power.
根据其案件的联邦起诉书，他在 12 月 30 日至 1 月 2 日期间下注，绝大多数押注发生在 1 月 2 日夜间——距离首批导弹落在加拉加斯仅几小时。
According to the federal complaint in his case, he placed those bets between Dec. 30 and Jan. 2, with the vast majority occurring the night of Jan. 2 — just hours before the first missiles would fall on Caracas.
然而，政府官员和雇员利用其职务便利在预测市场下注的问题并不局限于五角大楼。
However, the issue of government officials and employees using their access to place bets on prediction markets is not confined to the Pentagon.
一组Polymarket上的新账户在4月特朗普总统宣布美伊达成停火协议前夕，对于是否会达成停火做出了高度具体、时机精准的押注，使这些新客户获利数十万美元。该报道发布的当天，白宫警告工作人员不得利用私密信息在预测市场进行交易。
A group of new accounts on Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire just before President Donald Trump announced it in April, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for the new customers . The White House warned staff against using private information to trade on prediction markets the same day the report came out.
Kalshi还对三名国会候选人处以罚款并暂停其账户，该公司称这些候选人在4月押注了他们自己选举的结果。
Kalshi also fined and suspended three congressional candidates who the company said wagered on the outcome of their own elections in April.