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中国出手托举资本市场,投资者反应平淡China moves to shore up capital markets, investors nonplussed

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中国央行和证监会采取行动托举资本市场,宣布建立新机制以在危机时刻增强债市流动性,并批准新的交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)以增加股市稳定性。

China’s central bank and stock market regulator have moved to shore up capital markets, announcing new mechanisms to bolster bond market liquidity in the event of a crisis and authorising new exchange traded funds (ETFs) to add stability to stock markets.

中国人民银行(央行)行长潘功胜为债市筑起一道“防火墙”,宣布推出流动性支持工具,帮助券商、公募基金等非银行金融机构更好地抵御抛售潮。

People’s Bank of China (PBOC) governor Pan Gongsheng put a firewall in place to backstop the bond market, announcing the launch of a liquidity facility to help non-bank financial institutions such as securities brokers and mutual funds better withstand a fire sale.

中国证监会主席吴清则致力于引导数千亿元额外资金流入A股市场,宣布批准18只新的主动管理型ETF。中国媒体报道,基金公司预计将于周二开始发布产品,周五起发售,每只ETF潜在募集规模约20亿元人民币(约合3亿美元)。两位负责人均于周一在北京金融街论坛的演讲中作出上述表态。

Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, moved to channel billions of yuan of additional capital into the country’s A-share market with his announcement of approvals for 18 new actively managed ETFs. Fund managers were expected to begin announcing their offerings on Tuesday, with sales starting on Friday and each ETF potentially raising some 2 billion yuan (US$300 million), Chinese media reported. Both men made the announcements in speeches to the Financial Street Forum in Beijing on Monday.

潘功胜还表示,央行将为外资在岸银行提供更广泛的短期抵押流动性支持。吴清承诺在全球金融波动加剧之际打击市场违规行为,鼓励上市公司回购股份,并概述了证监会即将推出的四项强化监管举措,包括设立新的基金行业风险监测中心。

Pan also said the central bank would provide foreign-funded onshore banks with broader access to short-term collateralised liquidity. Wu pledged to crack down on market irregularities amid rising global financial volatility, encouraged listed firms to buy back shares and outlined four measures the commission would soon introduce to strengthen regulation, including the launch of a new centre to monitor risks in the fund industry.

潘功胜在北京会议上表示,央行将加大对中国三大国际科技创新中心的金融支持力度:京津冀地区、长三角地区,以及粤港澳大湾区。他称,央行将联合10个政府部门,构建更好地服务这三大中心核心功能和国际定位的金融服务体系。

The central bank would ramp up financial support for the country’s three primary international science and technology innovation hubs: the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Greater Bay Area in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau – Pan told the Beijing gathering. It would work with 10 government departments to build a financial services system that better supports the core functions and international positioning of the three hubs, he said.

潘功胜在北京论坛上表示,中国人民银行正考虑将主要政策利率由七天期逆回购利率调整为隔夜逆回购利率。央行行长称,此举旨在优化对短期利率的调控。这种做法将使央行对流动性状况拥有更强的掌控力,并使其政策框架与其他主要央行接轨。

Pan Gongsheng told the Beijing forum the PBOC was considering switching its main policy rate to the overnight reverse repurchase rate, replacing the seven-day reverse repo rate. The central bank governor said the move was part of efforts to refine its control of short-term interest rates. The approach would give the PBOC more control over liquidity conditions and bring its policy framework in line with those of other major central banks.

国家外汇管理局局长朱鹤新周一在北京论坛上表示,外汇局计划推出措施,帮助中国企业更好地参与国际合作与竞争。措施包括推进外汇市场开放,以及扩大允许证券公司开展外汇结售业务的试点范围。国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽表示,监管部门将加大力度推动银行业和保险业升级,并欢迎更多外资机构拓展在华业务。

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to roll out measures to help Chinese firms better engage in international cooperation and competition, its head, Zhu Hexin, told the Beijing forum on Monday. The measures include advancing the opening-up of the foreign exchange market and expanding a pilot programme allowing securities firms to conduct foreign exchange settlement and sales. Ding Xiangqun, the head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, said the regulator would step up efforts to upgrade the country’s banking and insurance sectors and welcome more foreign institutions to expand their business in China.

潘功胜表示,央行将密切关注人工智能(AI)对经济、金融市场及货币政策的影响。“AI的影响因国家、地区和行业而异。虽然它尚未对整体就业产生显著影响,但已开始改变就业结构,”他说。央行将探索在货币政策分析、反洗钱等领域应用AI。美国前财政部长罗伯特·鲁宾周一在上海外滩金融峰会上通过视频连线表示,中美应搁置互不信任,共同应对AI带来的风险。

The PBOC would closely monitor the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the economy as well as the financial markets and monetary policy, Pan said. “AI’s impact varies across countries, regions and industries. While it has yet to have a significant impact on overall employment, it has begun to change the structure of jobs,” he said. The central bank will explore using AI in areas from monetary policy analysis to anti-money-laundering efforts. The US and China should put aside their mutual distrust in order to tackle the risks posed by AI, Robert Rubin, US Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton, told the Bund Summit in Shanghai on Monday, speaking via video link.

利率锚:中国银河证券在研报中表示,隔夜回购利率将成为重要的定价基准,未来主要在两个方面发挥利率锚作用:一是作为财务状况较强企业浮动利率贷款的定价基准;二是作为债券和金融衍生品定价的锚……这将有助于打破当前利率市场的双重结构,厘清债券收益率与贷款利率的相对定价将是最关键的一步。(界面新闻)ETF创新:鹏华基金表示,主动型ETF的推出代表了中国ETF市场20多年历史上最重要的产品创新之一。

Rate anchor: China Galaxy Securities said in a research report that the overnight repo rate will become an important pricing benchmark, serving as an interest rate anchor primarily in two areas going forward: first, as the pricing benchmark for floating-rate loans taken out by companies with strong financial positions; and second, as the anchor for pricing bonds and financial derivatives … This will help break down the current dual structure of the interest rate market, and clarifying the relative pricing between bond yields and loan rates will be the most critical step. (Jiemian News) ETF innovation: Penghua Fund stated that the introduction of active ETFs represents one of the most significant product innovations in the over 20-year history of China’s ETF market.

这不仅仅是将主动基金搬上交易所;而是在ETF的制度框架内重新定义主动管理。对投资者而言,买ETF将不再只是选择指数,而是选择策略和基金经理。因此,基金公司间的竞争将从争夺“指数资源”转向比拼“主动管理能力”。(财联社)实质降息:6月新增隔夜逆回购操作利率设定为1.25%,鉴于该利率低于当前七天期基准利率,部分经济学家将视此转换为实质上的降息。

It is not merely about moving active funds onto the exchange; rather, it redefines active management within the institutional framework of ETFs. For investors, buying ETFs will no longer be just about choosing an index, but about selecting a strategy and a fund manager. Consequently, competition among fund companies will shift from a race for “index resources” to a contest of “active management capabilities”. (Cailianpress) Effective rate cut: With the rate on new overnight reverse repo transactions set at 1.25 per cent in June, some economists will see the switchover as effectively a rate cut given it’s lower than the current seven-day benchmark.

在宣布前,华泰证券张季强团队撰文称,这种转变将“起到实质降息的作用”……高盛经济学家陈心全在报告中表示:“明年,央行可能通过改变主要政策利率基准,而非常规降低政策利率,来实现部分货币宽松。”

Prior to the announcement, Huatai Securities analysts led by Zhang Jiqiang wrote that such a shift would “function as a de facto rate cut” … “For next year, the PBOC could potentially deliver part of monetary easing through a change in the main policy rate benchmark rather than a conventional cut in the policy rate,” Xinquan Chen, an economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note.

国际货币基金组织亚洲及太平洋部主任克里希纳·斯里尼瓦桑周一在外滩峰会间隙表示,中国出现了日益加剧的资源“错配”,这“需要得到纠正”。他敦促决策者不要“挑挑拣拣地选择行业”予以扶持,而应让资本依据市场力量运作。这是一项艰巨的任务,因为中国在努力摆脱房地产依赖的同时,又加倍押注技术发展;房地产曾占经济的五分之一强。

(CNBC)价值投资:“无论市场如何变化,长期价值投资的核心从未改变:尊重周期,尊重波动,锚定企业真实价值,透过市场情绪的噪音看清本质。周期总会轮转——而长期主义正是穿越波动、将信号与噪音分离的工具。”东方证券资产管理表示。(中国证券报)中国监管部门坚持采取渐进式举措支持国内资本市场,这或许令投资者颇感失望。

Market forces: China’s seen [a] growing “misallocation” of resources, Krishna Srinivasan, the International Monetary Fund’s Asia and Pacific Department director, [said] on the sidelines of the Bund Summit on Monday. That “needs to be corrected”, he said, urging policymakers not to “pick and choose sectors” to support, but to allow capital to work according to market forces. It’s a tough ask as China has doubled down on technological development while struggling to transition away from real estate, which once accounted for more than one-fifth of the economy. (CNBC) Value investing: “No matter how the market changes, the core of long-term value investing has never changed: respect the cycle, respect volatility, stay anchored in the true value of the business, and look through the noise of market sentiment. Cycles always turn – and long-termism is precisely the tool that separates signal from noise through the volatility,” Orient Securities Asset Management said. (China Securities Journal) China’s regulators are sticking with an incremental approach to support the country’s capital markets, perhaps to the chagrin of investors.

中国央行推出应对潜在债券危机的市场流动性新机制,证监会推出主动型交易型开放式指数基金(ETF),这进一步证明监管层选择微调而非大力干预。

The central bank’s new mechanisms to bolster market liquidity during a potential bond crisis and the stock market watchdog’s launch of active exchange traded funds (ETFs) are further evidence they are choosing to tinker rather than intervene.

中国人民银行行长潘功胜在北京一场金融论坛上表示,新的债券流动性工具将面向非银行金融机构,建立一种机制,在资产管理机构面临集体流动性风险或赎回与抛售形成“负面循环”时,稳定市场。

The new bond liquidity tool would target non-bank financial institutions, establishing a mechanism to stabilise the market when, for example, asset management institutions faced collective liquidity risks or a “negative cycle” of redemptions and sell-offs, People’s Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng told a Beijing financial forum.

此举更多属于未雨绸缪的机制,因为该国债券市场目前并未处于危机之中。随着债券价格今年上涨,中国国债收益率降至多年低位。较低的借贷成本使其对发行人具有吸引力,但对投资者吸引力较弱。周二,中国基准10年期国债收益率低至1.62%,为2025年2月以来最低。这与美国形成对比,美国债券市场遭遇抛售,导致10年期美债收益率升破5%。

The move is more of a rainy-day mechanism as the country’s bond market is not currently in crisis. Yields on Chinese government bonds are at multi-year lows as prices have climbed this year. The lower borrowing costs make them attractive for issuers but less so for investors. The yield on China’s benchmark 10-year bond was as low as 1.62 per cent on Tuesday, the lowest since February 2025. That contrasts with the United States, where a bond market rout has pushed the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note above 5 per cent.

与此同时,中国证券监督管理委员会(证监会)希望推出中国市场首批主动管理型ETF,能为投资者提供更多寻求更高回报的机会——并将数千亿元资金引入低迷的A股市场。

Meanwhile, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is hoping that launching the Chinese markets’ first actively managed ETFs will offer more opportunities for investors to seek higher returns – and channel billions of yuan into the flagging A-share market.

证监会批准了18只规模各上限20亿元的ETF,由国内基金管理人主动管理。在中国目前获批的约1700只ETF中,超过97%为被动管理型,即通过自动化方式跟踪上证综指或沪深300等指数。这类基金换手率低,但管理费也低,旨在跟踪市场收益。

The CSRC approved 18 ETFs of up to 2 billion yuan each to be actively managed by domestic fund managers. Of some 1,700 ETFs currently authorised in China, more than 97 per cent are passively managed, meaning they are automated and set to track an index like Shanghai’s composite CSI 300. They see low turnover, but have low management fees and aim to match the market returns.

主动交易型基金旨在跑赢大盘,由人工选股,换手率高,但管理费较高。

An actively traded fund seeks to beat the market, has human managers to select stocks and sees high turnover, but has higher management fees.

最新变化是监管层缓慢推出的一系列措施之一,旨在帮助市场在与人工智能建设相关的股票全球抛售中保持更充足的流动性和稳定性。

The latest changes are part of a slow drip of regulatory measures to help make markets more liquid and stable amid a global sell-off of stocks related to the artificial intelligence buildout.

两年前,央行为遏制增长乏力,实施了“大爆发”式降息和降准,注资以刺激投资启动经济。2025年5月又进行了一次幅度较小的调整,但此后避免采取大规模刺激措施。

Two years ago, the central bank moved to arrest flagging growth with a “big bang” cut in interest rates and bank reserve ratios to inject money for investment to kick-start the economy. It made another, smaller adjustment in May 2025 but has avoided major stimulus measures since.

不采取剧烈行动的一个原因是,经济并未拉响警报。今年第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长率为4.5%,处于官方目标区间4.5%至5%的下限。这缓解了当局回应部分经济学家再次呼吁推出“大爆发”式刺激以支持增长的压力,使他们能留有余地,在需要时再出手。

One reason for not taking drastic action is that the economy is not setting off warning bells. Gross domestic product growth for the third quarter of this year came in at 4.5 per cent, the lower end of the official target range of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent. That has eased the pressure on authorities to heed the calls of some economists for another “big bang” to support growth and allows them to keep their powder dry for when they need it.

投资者面临的问题是,中国股市指标已进入熊市领域,较最近高点下跌了20%。在全球对人工智能建设的融资和资本成本担忧加剧之际,科技股承压。

The problem for investors is that China’s stock gauges have moved into bear market territory, having fallen by 20 per cent from their most recent peaks. Technology shares have come under pressure amid rising global concern over the financing and capital costs of the AI buildout.

在美国,以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上周下跌4.5%,录得自6月以来最差单周表现。在中国,存储芯片制造商长鑫存储技术有限公司(CXMT)股价在7月首发上市后飙升466%,随后大幅回落。CXMT曾取代AI芯片设计商寒武纪科技股份有限公司,成为上海科创板市值最高的上市公司,但其股价现较8月高点下跌35%。同样,寒武纪股价也较6月高点下跌42%。

In the US, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 4.5 per cent last week, its worst performance since June. In China, shares in memory-chip maker Changxin Memory Technology Corporation (CXMT) have dropped sharply after surging by 466 per cent on its July debut. CXMT replaced AI chip designer Cambricon Technologies Corp as the country’s most valuable listed company on the Shanghai Star Market, but now its shares are trading at 35 per cent off their August peak. Similarly, Cambricon stock is 42 per cent down from its June peak.

今年上半年,首次公开募股(IPO)热潮吸引了散户投资者的强烈兴趣,但已显现降温迹象。1月至9月底,香港融资额达创纪录的480亿美元,但第三季度发行的IPO中,约74%交易价低于发行价,令投资者更加谨慎。

The boom in initial public offerings attracted strong retail investor interest in the first half of the year but has shown signs of petering out. Fundraising in Hong Kong hit a record US$48 billion between January and the end of September, but about 74 per cent of IPOs launched in the third quarter are trading below their offer prices, making investors more gun shy.

本月在香港,非洲手机销量最大厂商深圳传音控股的IPO超额认购倍数仅为3.5倍,远低于长鑫存储上市时的212倍。

This month in Hong Kong, the IPO of Shenzhen Transsion, the biggest seller of cellphones in Africa, was just 3.5 times oversubscribed, far short of the 212 times for CXMT’s listing.

中国股市处于熊市,IPO热情降温,令寻求体面回报的国内投资者几乎别无选择。中国房地产市场陷入长达五年的低迷,让民众紧握钱包,阻碍了政府刺激消费的努力。货币市场投资和储蓄账户的回报微薄。

The bear market in Chinese stocks and waning enthusiasm for IPOs leave few alternatives for domestic investors seeking a decent return. China’s property market is mired in a five-year slump that has made people hold on to their wallets, thwarting the government as it tries to stimulate consumption. The returns from investing in money markets, and from savings accounts, are meagre.

周二,在央行行长和证监会主席发表讲话后,股市下跌,沪深300指数收盘下跌0.5%。仅推出一些主动管理型ETF可能不足以激发投资者兴趣。

Shares fell on Tuesday following the speeches by the central bank governor and head of the stock markets watchdog, with the CSI 300 closing down 0.5 per cent. It may take more than the launch of some actively managed ETFs to stir investor interest.

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