
在可能是近期政治史上最滑稽的“自打耳光”事件中,美国司法部备受推崇的律师们周一宣布,尽管在特朗普政府时期他们滥用调查权力,手段奢华且令人恐惧,但迄今为止他们在整个加利福尼亚州仅能确认 28 人可能存在非法投票行为。“美国司法部今天的宣布表明,不存在大规模选民欺诈,”加州检察长罗布·邦塔在“保护选票行动”结果发布会后表示。
In what may be one of the most comical self-owns in recent politics, the esteemed attorneys of the U.S. Department of Justice announced Monday that despite the extravagant and terrifying misuse of their investigative power under the Trump administration, they have so far been able to identify only 28 people in all of California who may have voted illegally. "The announcement today by the United States DOJ makes the point that there is no widespread voter fraud," California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta said after the news conference announcing the results of “Operation Protect the Vote."
在该州约 2300 万登记选民中只有 28 人——据联邦方面称,其中甚至并非所有人都实际尝试去投票。这意味着每 82 万选民中约有 1 人涉嫌非法登记或投票,这一比率大致相当于美国人在某一年内被闪电击中的几率。特朗普无休止地声称民主党与无证移民之间存在庞大、有组织的阴谋,让他们大量投票以窃取大选,如今这番论调彻底站不住脚了。
Twenty-eight people out of about 23 million registered voters in the state — and not all of them even tried to vote, according to the feds. That's about 1 in 820,000 folks allegedly registering or voting illegally, a rate that roughly matches how often people in the United States get struck by lightning in a given year. So much for Trump's endless claims that there is a vast, organized conspiracy between Democrats and undocumented people to have them vote in large numbers to steal elections.
我想在此指出,周一被起诉的这些人,无一人被指控相互串谋或与民主党“幕后主使”勾结。政府动用了所有力量——调查、技术、法律手段——去寻找这些神秘、狡诈至极的“选票恶棍”。而现在,多亏了加州中区联邦检察官第一助理检察官比尔·埃萨伊利及其全州同事的努力,我们得知这 28 人都将被追究责任,前提是政府能证明其有不法行为。
I'll point out here that none of those charged Monday have been accused of colluding with one another or with Democratic overlords. All the power of the government — investigative, technological, legal — has been thrown at finding these mysterious, diabolically clever ballot baddies. And now, thanks to Bill Essayli, first assistant U.S. attorney for the Central District of California, and his colleagues across this great state, we now know that all 28 of them will be held accountable, if the government can prove wrongdoing.
必须明确的是——非法投票者理应受到追责。但且慢,还有更多,因为这场由移民策划的“窃选阴谋”绝不会止步于州界线。
And let's be clear — people who vote illegally should be held accountable. But wait, there's more, because this election-stealing plot by immigrants certainly doesn't stop at the state line.
Court Watch 网站的肖恩·休斯周一报道称,自本届政府上任以来,已有 169 人因非法登记或投票被联邦起诉。该网站专门追踪联邦诉讼。这个数字包含加利福尼亚州的新案件,意味着全美其他地区又有 141 名涉嫌非法投票者被起诉 —— 总计约每 125 万名登记选民中就有 1 人被指控非法登记或投票,这项罪行发生的概率略低于一次性猜中六位数密码。根本不存在“窃取大选”这种事。但笑话到此为止,因为这场针对加利福尼亚州选举的攻击很严重,而且才刚刚开始。
Seamus Hughes of Court Watch, an excellent site that tracks federal litigation, reported Monday that since the start of this administration, 169 people have been charged federally with illegally registering or voting. That number includes the new California cases, so it means an additional 141 potentially illegal voters have been charged across the U.S. — all told about 1 in 1.25 million registered voters being accused of illegally registering or voting, making this crime slightly less likely than guessing a six-digit pin code on the first try. There. Is. No. Election. Stealing. But that's where the funny part ends, because this attack on California elections is serious and just getting started.
联邦政府起诉加利福尼亚州,你们大概已经读过了,声称该州收到一个劣质的拇指驱动器,里面装着 2 万名登记选民的名单,联邦政府有点强烈地怀疑他们可能不是合法选民。这里有个重要提示:联邦政府非常小心,没有声称这些人非法投票,而只是基于可疑数据推测“可能如此”,稍后我会详述。联邦政府给州政府设了个荒唐的 48 小时最后期限,要求其同意修改宪法法律、抛弃常识,并将这 2 万张选票(如果已寄回)隔离封存,以便复核是否由合法选民投出。
The federal government, you've probably read, is suing California, claiming it gave the state a janky thumb drive with 20,000 names of registered voters that it sort of strongly suspects maybe aren't legal voters. Important note here: The government has been very careful not to claim that these people voted illegally, just that it might be so based on questionable data, which I'll get to in a minute. The feds gave the state a silly 48-hour deadline to agree to change constitutional law, dump common sense and sequester these 20,000 ballots, if they were even returned, to double-check they were cast by valid voters.

加利福尼亚州理所当然地拒绝了 —— 因为选举由各州管理,而非联邦政府 —— 联邦政府随即以极其单薄的法律依据提起诉讼。其核心主张基本是:非法投票属违法,如果加州不完全按特朗普的意愿行事,就可能因阻碍联邦当局打击选民欺诈罪而违反宪法的“至上条款”。这实际上是在辩称:如果州政府不采用特朗普青睐的有缺陷方法来阻止选民欺诈,州政府就是在阻碍联邦当局自行起诉选民欺诈。但他们不是刚通过 28 起案件实施执法了吗?
When California rightfully refused — because elections are run by states, not the federal government — the federal government sued on the thinnest of legal grounds. It basically claimed that voting illegally is illegal, and if California doesn't do exactly what Trump wants, it could be violating the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution by impeding the feds from enforcing the crime of voter fraud. Which is basically arguing that if the state government fails to stop voter fraud using the flawed methods Trump likes, then the state is somehow stopping federal authorities from prosecuting voter fraud themselves. But didn't they just enforce it with 28 cases?
准备好吧——因为“由政府主导的选民欺诈行为”已经成为右翼势力常用的一个论据。Essayli指出:“加利福尼亚州正在允许非公民参与我们的选举;正如他们上周所被告知的那样,这种行为不仅属于民事违法行为,还可能带来刑事后果。”如果这种情况真的发生,那些被捏造出来的指控将会具有完全不同的意义。Essayli认为州政府官员并没有表现出“善意”;但实际上,问题可能出在州政府自身。
Get ready, because "state-facilitated voter fraud," is a new right-wing thing. California is "being complicit in non-citizens voting in our elections, and as they were warned last week, not only is it a civil violation, but they could also face criminal consequences," Essayli said, which if it happened would give Trumped-up charges a whole new meaning. Essayli said state officials are not being "good faith actors," but I'll argue that shoe is on the other foot.
那份包含2万名涉嫌非法投票者的名单,很可能是来自埃隆·马斯克领导的政府效率部门(Department of Government Efficiency)开发的“Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements”(SAVE)系统。该系统试图从十几个政府数据库中提取数据,但这些数据库之间并不兼容,且出于隐私考虑,这些数据一直被分开保存。
The list of 20,000 alleged, suspected, maybe-maybe-not illegal voters was likely drawn from the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) program, created by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, if you can remember that unfortunate relic. It sought to draw data from more than a dozen government databases that were not only not compatible with such information sharing, but which had been kept separate until now for privacy reasons.
总体而言,美国民众并不希望政府掌握关于每个公民的统一、全面的记录。幸运的是,SAVE系统实际上无法生成可靠、统一的选民信息。该系统不仅会导致数据混乱,还会将名字相似的人的记录合并在一起;数据专家们早已认为该系统不可靠。今年9月,加州大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)的投票权利项目(Voting Rights Project)与“人道移民权利联盟”(Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights)联合起诉了联邦政府,指控其利用该系统将已入籍的公民从选民名单中剔除。
Americans in general did not want the government collecting unified, know-all records of every citizen. Luckily for us, I guess, the SAVE system can't actually create reliable, unified records. It confuses people, convolutes them, merges records of people with similar names, and in general has been deemed unreliable by data experts. In September, the good folks at the UCLA Voting Rights Project joined with the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights to sue the federal government over its use of that system to target naturalized citizens for removal from voter rolls.
事实证明,政府的目标似乎正是那些已经获得公民身份的移民。正如我几周前所写的那样,已入籍的公民约占合格选民总数的十分之一,其中近四分之一居住在加利福尼亚州;他们同时也分布在密歇根州等摇摆州,以及乔治亚州和内华达州等可能因微弱差距而决定选举结果的州。
Turns out, the government appears to be targeting immigrants who are now citizens with these voter fraud accusations. As I wrote about a few weeks ago, naturalized citizens make up about 1 in 10 eligible voters, and nearly a quarter of them live in California. But they also live in swing states such as Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed may draw such voters, and in other places such as Georgia and Nevada where races might be decided by only a few votes.
在中期选举投票已经开始之际,这些逮捕和诉讼是一种不加掩饰的选民压制形式。试想一下,如果你是中央谷地的一名归化公民,那里因美国移民与海关执法局(ICE)的行动而弥漫着恐惧,而共和党众议员大卫·瓦拉达奥正在加利福尼亚州第22国会选区——全美竞争最激烈的选区之一——与民主党人兰迪·维莱加斯展开角逐。
These arrests and lawsuits while voting is already underway in the midterms are a not-subtle form of voter suppression. Imagine being a naturalized citizen in the Central Valley, where ICE is driving rampant fear and where Republican Rep. David Valadao is running against Democrat Randy Villegas in California's 22nd Congressional District — one of the nation's most closely contested races.
你会不会考虑干脆不参加这次选举,以防你的选票招来联邦政府令人胆寒的关注?即使你知道自己的投票是合法的,如果你生活在一个身份混杂的家庭里呢?如果投票意味着移民官员会敲门查证你的身份,并可能发现那位没有合法身份的家庭成员,冒这个险值得吗?为什么要冒这个险?投票权项目联合创始人马特·巴雷托表示:“基本上,他们现在所做的就是通过这些行动,彻底骚扰和恐吓那些依法有资格投票的归化公民。”
Would you consider sitting this election out just in case your ballot draws the frightening eye of the federal government? Even knowing that your vote is legal, what if you lived in a mixed-status household? Would it be worth risking voting if it meant a knock at the door from immigration checking on your status, and maybe finding that family member who lacks it? Why take the risk? "Basically, what they're doing now is just completely harassing and intimidating naturalized citizens who are legally eligible to vote through these actions," said Matt Barreto, co-founder of the Voting Rights Project.
如果选票压制还不足以让特朗普得到他想要的结果,这些起诉和诉讼就会助长阴谋论,给特朗普提供素材,声称结果是假的、选举被窃取了。于是我们陷入循环,不得不面对特朗普的指控:因为投票结果不如他意,闪电正击中每个人、每个地方、每一刻。
And if the vote isn't suppressed enough to give Trump the results he wants, these prosecutions and lawsuits feed the beast of conspiracy, giving Trump fodder to claim the results are fake, the election stolen. And round and round we go, reckoning with Trump's claims that lightning is striking everyone, everywhere, all at once, because the vote didn't go his way.