资产管理部门首次将比特币纳入其长期资本市场预期，预测其回报率可能跑赢股票、债券和黄金，这标志着比特币在华尔街的接受度迈出了里程碑式的一步。
Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions for the first time, forecasting returns that could beat stocks, bonds and gold in a milestone for its Wall Street acceptance.
但有一个问题：比特币的极端波动性可能会在风险调整后的基础上削弱其吸引力。
But there’s a catch: Bitcoin’s extreme volatility threatens to undermine its appeal on a risk-adjusted basis.
摩根大通的基准情形预测未来十年年化回报率为10%，但同时也假设年化波动率为55%，是美国大盘股的三倍多。该公司在本周的一份报告中表示，鉴于比特币与其他资产的相关性不稳定，暂不将其纳入主要投资组合模型。
JPMorgan’s base case projects annualized returns of 10% over the next decade, but also assumes annual volatility of 55%, more than three times that of US large-cap stocks. The firm stops short of incorporating Bitcoin into its main portfolio models, it said in a report this week, citing its unstable correlations with other assets.
这种波动性会侵蚀复合回报，因为急剧下跌需要更大幅度的反弹才能回本。这是比特币ETF投资者熟知的风险，他们在2025年比特币价格触及略高于126,000美元的峰值附近买入，随后眼睁睁看着持仓最多缩水50%，因为价格回落了。
Such volatility can eat into compounded returns as steep losses require even larger gains to recover. That’s a risk familiar to Bitcoin ETF investors who bought near the cryptocurrency’s peak of just over $126,000 in 2025, only to see their holdings lose as much as 50% as prices retreated.
“我们认为，目前将BTC视为均衡投资组合中的分散化工具还为时过早，”包括Tim Lintern、Thushka Maharaj和Sean Daly在内的摩根大通团队写道。“但如果波动性持续下降，与其他资产的相关性趋于稳定，这种情况未来可能会发生改变，特别是随着监管变得更加明确，流动性和价格发现机制持续改善。”自疫情以来，各大华尔街机构一直在更认真地涉足加密货币领域，从谨慎的探究转向更有实质性的尝试，包括为客户提供某些代币的交易、推出加密货币主题基金以及尝试代币化等。
“We believe it is premature to consider BTC as a diversifier in a balanced portfolio,” the JPMorgan team including Tim Lintern, Thushka Maharaj and Sean Daly wrote. “But should volatility continue to decline and correlations to other asset stabilize, this may evolve in the future, particularly as regulation becomes clearer and liquidity and price discovery continue to improve.”Since the pandemic, various Wall Street firms have been making more earnest inroads into the world of cryptocurrencies, shifting from cautious inquiry to more meaningful experimentation that’s included making the trading of certain coins available for clients, putting out crypto-focused funds and dabbling with tokenization, among other things.
摩根大通分析师表示，尽管许多投资者仍将比特币视为投机性资产，但他们依然在探索加密货币——最近接受调查的客户中，有十分之一表示其投资组合持有加密货币，约 17% 表示计划“优先配置加密货币”。这在一定程度上得益于监管框架变得更加完善和明确。
The JPMorgan analysts say that even as many investors see Bitcoin as a speculative asset, they’re still exploring cryptocurrencies — a tenth of clients recently surveyed said their portfolios held crypto, and roughly 17% said they planned to “prioritize crypto.”That’s thanks, in part, to a regulatory framework that has become more developed and better defined.
不过，该行研究人员称，由于比特币与其他资产存在“不稳定相关性”，目前并不适合作为平衡型投资组合中的分散化工具。他们写道：“如果相关性趋于稳定且波动率下降，BTC 的投资组合效用未来可能会提升。”
Still, Bitcoin right now doesn’t cut it as a diversifier in balance portfolios due to its “unstable correlations” to other assets, the bank’s researchers said. “If correlations stabilize and volatility declines, BTC’s portfolio utility may improve in the future,” they wrote.
更广泛地说，研究人员在报告中探讨了“经济民族主义、技术采纳和资本重组”如何在未来十年左右推动资产回报，得出的结论是：各国政府将投资于“国家韧性”，企业将竞相部署新创新，这些因素将影响资本的配置方式。他们表示，一场 15 万亿美元的“全球资本支出超新星”将在该时期推动增长和强劲的资产回报。
More broadly, the researchers in their note explored how “economic nationalism, technology adoption and capital rewiring” could drive asset returns over the next decade or so, coming to the conclusion that governments will invest in “national resiliency,” firms will race to deploy new innovations and those factors will impact how capital gets deployed. A $15 trillion “global capex supernova” will fuel growth and strong asset returns over the period, they said.
报告指出：“当前的技术采纳等同于人工智能，但医药、机器人、太空等其他领域的突破在未来十年也很可能取得进展，将通过投资和生产率进一步支撑趋势性增长。”
“Technology adoption today is synonymous with artificial intelligence, but breakthroughs in other areas, from medicine to robotics to space, will likely advance in the next decade, further supporting trend growth via investment and productivity,” the report stated.