摩根资产管理首席投资官兼全球固定收益主管 Bob Michele 表示，美国债券市场在未来 12 个月可能实现 7% 至 8% 左右的回报。
The US bond market could return around 7% to 8% over the next 12 months, according to JPMorgan Asset Management’s Bob Michele.
Michele 在新加坡的一次活动上说：“美债收益率曲线接近 5%，前端收益率略低于该水平。因此首先我们预期会看到一定的价格升值，在此基础上再加上持有收益。” 本月以来，随着 AI 相关股票抛售、法国危机以及中东持续紧张局势共同作用，美国国债成为全球投资者的首选避险资产，国债全线上涨。基准 10 年期美债收益率 10 月迄今已下跌逾 30 个基点，有望终结连续七个月的上涨走势。
“The Treasury curve is close to 5%,” with yields at the front end a little below that, Michele, chief investment officer and head of global fixed income at JPMorgan Asset, said at an event in Singapore. “So the first thing is we expect to see some price appreciation. Then you get the carry on top of that.”Treasuries have rallied across the board this month as a selloff in AI-related shares, the crisis in France and ongoing tensions in the Middle East all combined to make US government debt the investment of choice for global investors. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has slumped more than 30 basis points so far in October, set to snap a seven-month rising streak.
Michele 称，他在美债收益率曲线的长端看到最大价值。虽然美联储本周不会加息，但他补充说，美联储极有可能在 12 月重新传递鹰派信号。
Michele said he sees most value in the longer end of the Treasury curve. While the Federal Reserve won’t hike rates this week, they’ll most likely come back in December to deliver a hawkish message, he added.
Michele 表示：“他们将发出仍处于加息周期的信号。曲线长端会欢迎这一点，因为他们希望美联储对增长和通胀压力保持警惕，而目前的实际收益率实在过高。” 摩根资产管理管理的资产约为 4.6 万亿美元。
“They’ll signal that they’re still in a hiking cycle. The long end of the curve will like that because they’ll want the Fed to be vigilant on growth and inflation pressures and real yields just simply are too high out there,” said Michele. JPMorgan Asset manages about $4.6 trillion in assets.
上个月，Michele 称其团队已开始买入美国、日本和澳大利亚的长期债券，认为价格“简直太便宜”，并宣称市场已达到“最大痛苦时刻”。彭博美债回报指数显示，2026 年迄今美债回报下跌 0.9%，此前已连续三年上涨。
Last month, Michele said his team had started buying long-end US, Japanese, and Australian bonds, calling prices “simply too cheap” and declaring that markets had reached “a point of maximum pain.”A Bloomberg gauge of Treasury returns is down 0.9% so far in 2026, after rising in each of the previous three years.