随着法国抗议活动升级，Kalshi 交易者认为极右翼候选人玛丽娜·勒庞在 2027 年法国总统大选中获胜的可能性正在增加。
As protests intensify in France, Kalshi traders see a growing likelihood that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win that country's presidential race in 2027.
学生主导的抗议活动于 9 月在巴黎率先爆发，起因是对学校条件和教师短缺的不满，随后蔓延为全国性的愤怒，矛头直指该国的生活成本以及包括教育和医疗在内的公共服务。当局称，周末全国有超过 50 万人示威。
Student-led protests first erupted in Paris over frustration with school conditions and teacher shortages in September but rippled into national outrage over the country's living costs and public services, including in education and healthcare. Authorities said over 500,000 people demonstrated nationwide over the weekend.
自抗议活动开始以来，Kalshi 上关于下一任法国总统人选的交易活动激增。极右翼候选人玛丽娜·勒庞的获胜几率在过去一个月里从 39% 跃升至 53%。
Since the protests have started, Kalshi trading activity over who will be the next French president has jumped on Kalshi. Odds for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen have jumped to 53% from 39% in the last month.
抗议活动开始仅几天之后，即 9 月 26 日，投机者认为现任戛纳市长大卫·利斯纳尔成为下一任总统的几率为 44.7%。这些赔率出炉的前一天，他刚举行了一场大型竞选集会。
Just days after the protests began, speculators placed a 44.7% chance on Sept. 26 that David Lisnard, the current mayor of Cannes, would become the country's next president. Those odds came in just a day after he held a major campaign rally for the presidential race.
到周二下午，利斯纳尔在 Kalshi 上赢得 2027 年总统大选的几率已降至 11%。该合约询问“下一任法国总统大选获胜者？”，将由法国政府于明年验证。
Lisnard's Kalshi odds of winning the 2027 presidential contest dropped to 11% by Tuesday afternoon. The contract asks "Next French presidential election winner?" and will be verified by French government next year.
勒庞多次批评不断升级的社会动荡，将其作为竞选的核心信息，并辩称埃马纽埃尔·马克龙领导的中间派政府助长了引发抗议的条件。
Le Pen has repeatedly criticized the escalating civil unrest, cementing it as a key message in her campaign and arguing that leadership under Emmanuel Macron's centrist government has contributed to the conditions behind the protests.
“你们昨天看到了我们的城市、我们的街道、我们的国家，遭到蹂躏、虐待、洗劫，”勒庞在 10 月 18 日于社交媒体平台 X 上发帖写道，此前该国发生了多年来最严重的骚乱之一，据该国政府部门称，已有超过 2000 人被捕，近 1000 名警察和宪兵受伤。
"You saw yesterday our cities, our streets, our country, battered, mistreated, ransacked," Le Pen wrote in an Oct. 18 post on social media platform X, following some of the country's worst unrest in years, with over 2,000 arrests and nearly 1,000 police officers and gendarmes injured, according to the country's ministry.
“我们正经历一场信任、权威的深刻危机，这对民主构成了威胁。这一现象必须引起我们的警惕：我们的国家陷入了钳形夹击，甚至沦为人质，夹在暴力与无能为力之间，”勒庞补充道。
"We are living through a profound crisis of trust, of authority that poses a threat to democracy. This observation must alert us: our country is caught in a vise, or even taken hostage, between violence and powerlessness," Le Pen added.
法国股市同样面临波动，CAC 40 指数在过去一个月下跌 2.8%，过去六个月下跌近 6%。该国债券收益率（衡量政府借贷成本）也在上升，10 年期国债收益率交投于 4.9% 以上。
French stocks are also facing volatility, with the CAC 40 index down 2.8% in the last month and off almost 6% in the last six months. The country's bond yields, which measure the government's borrowing costs, have also been on the rise, with the 10-year government bond yield trading above 4.9%.
高盛资深欧洲股票策略师 Sharon Bell 周一在 CNBC 节目《Squawk Box Europe》中表示：“如果不采取痛苦的措施，很难看到预算赤字下降。”
"It will be difficult to see the budget deficit come down without painful measures," Sharon Bell, senior European equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday.
披露：CNBC 与 Kalshi 存在商业关系，包括客户获取和少数股权投资。
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.