东京，10月21日：路透社一项对经济学家的调查显示，绝大多数受访者预计日本央行将在12月继6月和9月加息后，再次上调利率至1.50%，保持比每年仅加息一次更快的步伐。
TOKYO, Oct 21 : The Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in December to 1.50 per cent, following June and September increases, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, keeping up a quicker pace in a campaign that started with just one rate rise a year.
由于日元疲软和中东战争加剧，不断上涨的能源和进口成本正增加日本的通胀压力，预计到明年年中至少还将加息两次至2.0%的预测者也在增多。
Rising energy and import costs, worsened by a weak yen and the war in the Middle East, are adding to inflation pressure in Japan, and there are more forecasters expecting at least two more rate rises to 2.0 per cent by the middle of next year.
日元经历了一段相对稳定期，此前日元在今年大半时间里承受巨大的抛售压力，引发日本当局和美国财政部的干预，这也支持了12月加息的理由。
A period of relative stability in the yen, which spent most of the year under crushing selling pressure, triggering interventions from the Japanese authorities as well as the US Treasury, also supports the case for a December increase.
上周，日本央行政策委员会委员江田纯子表示，鉴于通胀存在显著的上行风险，央行不应对加息过度谨慎，目前利率已处于31年来的最高水平。
Last week, board member Junko Koeda said the central bank should not become overly cautious about raising rates, at their highest in 31 years, given the significant upside risks to inflation.
在10月13日至19日的调查中，近70%的经济学家，即78位受访者中的54位，预计日本央行将在本季度将政策利率上调至1.5%，这一比例几乎是上一轮调查的两倍。
Nearly 70 per cent of economists, 54 of 78, in the October 13-19 survey expected the BOJ to raise its policy rate to 1.5 per cent this quarter, almost double the share in the previous poll.
在明确指出月份的54位受访者中，约80%选择12月，而仅有2%选择日本央行下一次为期两天的货币政策会议，该会议将于10月30日结束。
Of the 54 respondents who specified a month, about 80 per cent chose December, while only 2 per cent chose the BOJ's next two-day policy meeting, which concludes on October 30.
明治安田综合研究所高级经济学家前田一树表示：“鉴于美国和欧洲在年底前加息的可能性较大，如果日本央行推迟到明年才行动，存在日元抛售加速的风险。”
"With rate hikes in the United States and Europe looking likely before year-end, there is a risk that yen selling could accelerate if the BOJ postpones its move until the new year," said Kazutaka Maeda, senior economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute.
另据路透社单独调查显示，日本央行不太可能在本月加息，而美联储和欧洲央行预计将在12月上调借贷成本。
The BOJ is unlikely to raise rates this month, while the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to raise borrowing costs in December, separate Reuters polls found.
农林中金综合研究所首席经济学家南武志表示：“经济并未过热到需要连续加息的程度，物价走势也在日本央行的预期范围内。”
"The economy is not overheating to the extent that would warrant consecutive rate hikes, and price developments are also within the BOJ's expected range," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
消息人士告诉路透社，许多日本央行官员倾向于评估更多数据，以了解此前加息对金融状况的影响。
Sources have told Reuters many BOJ officials prefer to assess more data on how previous increases have affected financial conditions.
利率将达到 2% 或更高 展望明年，65 位分析师中有 39 位，即 60%，预计到 6 月底政策利率将达到 1.75%，这一中位数与 9 月调查持平。
RATES TO REACH 2 per cent OR HIGHER Looking into next year, 39 of 65 analysts, or 60 per cent, expected the policy rate to reach 1.75 per cent by end-June, a median unchanged from the September poll.
在回答额外问题的 41 位受访者中，近半数认为 1.75% 将是终端利率。但预期利率将达到 2.00% 或更高的比例上升至 51%，高于 9 月的 40% 和 8 月的 36%。
Almost half of 41 respondents who answered an additional question said 1.75 per cent would be the terminal rate. But the share expecting it to reach 2.00 per cent or more rose to 51 per cent, from 40 per cent in September and 36 per cent in August.
9 月，首相高市早苗提名的两位董事会成员——他们支持更宽松的财政政策——反对将利率上调至 1.25% 的决定。
In September, two board members nominated by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi who support looser fiscal policy opposed the decision to raise rates to 1.25 per cent.
交易员将该异议票视为日本央行加息计划可能继续面临高市政府反对的信号，一度推动日元走低。
Traders saw the dissent as a sign the BOJ's rate-hike plans could continue to face opposition from Takaichi's administration, briefly pushing the yen lower.
近四分之三的受访者，即 32 位中有 23 位，表示当政策委员会下次加息时，如果再出现异议票，可能会打压日元，而日元目前仅比 2026 年低点、即 1 美元兑 164 日元左右的水平强势约 4%。
Nearly three-quarters of respondents, or 23 of 32, said further dissenting votes when the Policy Board next raises rates could weigh on the yen, which is only about 4 per cent stronger than its 2026 low of around 164 per dollar.
三井住友信托资产管理公司高级经济学家藤本圭表示：“如果异议票特别是由高市政府任命的董事会成员投出，可能会被解读为政府试图抑制加息，从而可能加剧人们对未来政策收紧可能落后于形势的担忧。”
"If the dissenting vote were cast in particular by a board member appointed under the Takaichi administration, it could be interpreted as the administration's attempt to restrain rate hikes, potentially heightening concerns that future policy tightening could fall behind the curve," said Kei Fujimoto, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management.
国债发行量预计低于 40 万亿日元 日本国债（JGB）收益率近期随全球市场抛售而上升，但也受预期日本央行进一步加息以及担忧高市的大规模支出和减税计划将恶化该国本已紧张的财政状况所推动。
BOND ISSUANCE SEEN BELOW 40 TRILLION YEN Japanese government bond (JGB) yields have risen recently alongside a global market rout, but also on expectations of further BOJ rate hikes and concerns Takaichi's big spending and tax-cut plans will worsen the country's already strained finances.
高市早苗表示，政府目标是将2027财年预算的新增国债发行规模控制在40万亿日元（约合2510亿美元）左右。她周一重申，东京将“适当”控制债务发行规模。
Takaichi has said the government aims to keep new bond issuance at around 40 trillion yen ($251 billion) for the fiscal 2027 budget. She reiterated on Monday Tokyo would "appropriately" control the size of its debt issuance.
接受调查的经济学家中近三分之二，即23人中的15人，认为新增发行量将控制在40万亿日元以下。
Nearly two-thirds of economists surveyed, 15 of 23, said new issuance would be kept below 40 trillion yen.
三井住友银行高级经济学家竹本纯也表示：“政府很可能希望增加日本国债发行，作为增长投资的资金来源。”
"The government is likely keen to increase JGB issuance as a source of funding for growth investment," said Junya Takemoto, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.
“然而，随着政府更加关注市场利率上升，它可能会通过全面审查现有补贴和基金的预算来抑制发行，确保日本国债发行量不会与历史水平有显著差异。”
"However, as it becomes more conscious of rising interest rates in the market, it may seek to contain issuance by undertaking a full-scale review of budgets for existing subsidies and funds, ensuring that JGB issuance does not differ markedly from historical levels."