丰田汽车在去年秋季做出了一个影响深远的决定，当时其最畅销车型在美国的销量即将创下历史新高。
Toyota made a fateful decision last fall as it neared an all-time U.S. sales record for its top-selling car.
这家日本车企决定将2025款丰田RAV4 SUV的生产一直延续到第四季度，推迟了对工厂进行改造以生产全新2026款车型的工作。
The Japanese automaker decided to keep producing the 2025 Toyota RAV4 SUV well into the fourth quarter, delaying work to retool its factories to make the all-new 2026 model.
一年后，丰田正在承担后果：据咨询公司AutoForecast Solutions称，截至9月，这款热门跨界SUV在北美的产量暴跌30%。而RAV4在美国的销量今年下滑了29%。
A year later, Toyota is reckoning with the consequences: North American production of the popular crossover has plunged 30% through September, according to consulting firm AutoForecast Solutions. And RAV4’s U.S. sales are down 29% this year.
RAV4是美国最畅销的非皮卡车型，也是该国最受欢迎的SUV，但这一地位岌岌可危。丰田表示，其美国经销商手中的RAV4库存仅够约四天销售；行业数据公司Motor Intelligence称，9月美国汽车行业的平均库存水平为51天。购买RAV4的消费者需要提前几个月预订，几乎每一辆运抵经销商的车都已被预订一空。
The RAV4 is America’s best-selling vehicle that isn’t a pickup truck, and the country’s most popular SUV, but that status is in danger. Toyota’s U.S. dealers have about four days’ worth of the crossover on their lots, the automaker said; industry data firm Motor Intelligence said the U.S. average was 51 days in September. RAV4 buyers have to order months ahead, and nearly every one that lands at a dealership is already spoken for.
丰田北美销售主管达蒙·罗斯在接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示：“这确实让我们陷入了一个有点棘手的境地。”他为去年优先生产即将停产的RAV4的决定进行了辩护，称即使全新改款车型即将上市，2025款车型依然“异常火爆”。“这简直违背常理，”他说。
“It has certainly put us in a little bit of a hole to dig out of,” Damon Rose, Toyota’s North America sales chief, told The Wall Street Journal in an interview. He defended the decision to prioritize production of the outgoing RAV4 last year, saying the 2025 vehicle remained “red hot” even as the newly updated one was right around the corner. “It almost defied logic,” he said.
由于安大略省的两家工厂进行大规模改造以生产彻底翻新的2026款车型——该车型首次仅作为混合动力车型销售，丰田在1月和2月几乎未生产RAV4。罗斯表示，尽管这一产量下降是计划内的，但车企仍在努力弥补缺口。
Toyota produced few RAV4s in January and February after two plants in Ontario, Canada, underwent major retrofits for the overhauled 2026 model—sold for the first time only as a hybrid. Though that drop was planned, the automaker is still working to recover the deficit, Rose said.
与此同时，由于丰田决定不按原计划让肯塔基工厂停产RAV4，该工厂新款车型的生产起步较晚。
Meanwhile, Toyota’s Kentucky plant got a late start on the new model after the automaker decided not to phase out the RAV4 from that plant, as it had previously planned.
这家车企的工厂一直在全力生产以弥补短缺。一位发言人表示，自4月以来，丰田在美国和加拿大工厂平均每月生产超过3万辆RAV4，已达产能极限。“我们现在实现了向经销商承诺的稳定供应，”Rose说。
The automaker’s factories have been running all-out to make up the shortage. A spokesman said Toyota has been producing more than 30,000 RAV4 units a month on average between the U.S. and Canadian factories since April, at the limits of their capacity. “We’re now getting that steady flow that we had promised the dealers,” Rose said.
RAV4于1996年引入美国市场，多年来一直领跑美国销量榜。2026款是该车型第六代的首款车型，代表了大约每五六年一次的设计和零部件重大变革。去年，该车企售出479,288辆RAV4，创历史新高。今年将无法达到这一数字。
The RAV4, introduced to the U.S. in 1996, has topped U.S. sales charts for years. The 2026 model is the first of the vehicle’s sixth generation, representing the kind of major change in design and components that happens about every five or six years. Last year, the automaker sold 479,288 of them, a record. It won’t hit that number this year.
“通常情况下，换代问题不会这么严重，”AutoForecast Solutions副总裁Sam Fiorani表示。
“Normally, generational changeover issues aren’t this dramatic,” said Sam Fiorani, vice president at AutoForecast Solutions.
RAV4往往在抵达经销商库存前就已被预订。经销商表示，客户有时会退还定金，转而选择能更快提车的第二意向车型。许多经销商甚至没有一辆新车供顾客试驾。
RAV4s are often spoken for on dealer lots before they arrive. Customers are sometimes withdrawing their deposits, dealers said, opting for a second-choice vehicle they can get sooner. Many dealerships don’t have a single new vehicle for visitors to test-drive.
位于洛杉矶附近的Longo Toyota是这家日本车企最大的美国经销商，总经理Doug Eroh表示，约有500名客户正在等待RAV4，等待时间为六到八周。他表示，等待名单已从高峰期有所下降，但提车仍然很难。
At Longo Toyota near Los Angeles, the Japanese automaker’s biggest U.S. dealership, about 500 customers are waiting between six and eight weeks for RAV4s, said General Manager Doug Eroh. He said his wait list is now down from its peak, but it is still tough to get one.
Dan Rubin本月初为这款畅销SUV支付了1,000美元定金。他位于温哥华的经销商告诉他，他在RAV4求购等待名单上排第48位，意味着提车还需数月。
Dan Rubin put down a $1,000 deposit on the bestselling SUV earlier this month. His Vancouver dealership told him he was number 48 on the wait list of RAV4 seekers, meaning delivery would be months away.
对于目前驾驶一辆行驶约13万英里（约20.9万公里）、急需维修的2014款马自达的买家来说，这是一个难以接受的等待。本周他退掉了定金，转而选择了一辆能更快提车的丰田Sienna瑞纳（Sienna）小型货车。
That was a tough sell for a buyer currently driving a 2014 Mazda with about 130,000 miles that was in desperate need of repairs. This week he withdrew his deposit, opting instead for a Toyota Sienna minivan that he could get sooner.
短缺来得不是时候。丰田原本有望在美销量上超越通用汽车。如果没有其最畅销车型的充足供应，这一里程碑可能难以实现。与此同时，因长期高企的油价而感到痛苦的美国消费者正蜂拥购买混合动力汽车——其中一些人转向了 RAV4 的竞争对手，如本田 CR-V 混动版。
The shortage hits Toyota at an inopportune time. The automaker has been poised to overtake General Motors in U.S. sales. That milestone may be tough to reach without a plentiful supply of its top-selling vehicle. Meanwhile, Americans burned by persistently high gas prices are flocking to hybrid cars—and some have been turning to RAV4 competitors such as the Honda CR-V Hybrid.
今年是丰田首次仅以混合动力和插电式混合动力版本提供这款 SUV。当美国大部分车企试图向纯电动汽车转型时，丰田在混合动力上押下重注，这一举措迄今已为这家日本巨头带来回报。
This year marks the first time Toyota has offered the SUV in only hybrid and plug-in hybrid variants. The automaker bet big on hybrids as much of the U.S. industry attempted a pivot to EVs, which so far has paid off for the Japanese giant.
该 SUV 的混合动力系统是需求激增的另一原因，因为今年油价上涨。几乎所有 RAV4 车型的综合油耗均超过 40 英里/加仑。罗斯表示，丰田未预见到美国油价上涨，这使得 RAV4 的吸引力扩展到了混合动力车的传统沿海据点之外。
The SUV’s hybrid setup is another reason demand has skyrocketed, as gas prices have risen this year. Nearly all RAV4s achieve more than 40 combined miles a gallon. Toyota didn’t foresee the rise in U.S. gas prices, Rose said, and that has broadened the RAV4’s appeal beyond hybrids’ coastal strongholds.
“俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨市过去并不买混合动力车的账。现在，全国上下都看到了它的价值，”罗斯说。
“Tulsa, Oklahoma, wasn’t begging for hybrids. Now, the whole country sees the value,” Rose said.
通常，车企会储备即将停产车型的缓冲库存，以便在工厂改造生产新车型时争取时间。但丰田的车辆销售速度更快，这让传统策略更难奏效，市场研究公司 JD Power 高级副总裁泰森·乔米尼说。
Normally, automakers build buffer stocks of outgoing vehicles to buy time when factories have to be reworked for a new model. But the traditional strategy is harder for Toyota because its vehicles sell at a faster rate, said Tyson Jominy, a senior vice president at research firm JD Power.
上一轮换代时，公司采取了不同做法。2019 年，丰田在美国完成 RAV4 第五代车型切换后，销量反而增长。一位丰田发言人表示，当时公司手头有更多 2018 款 RAV4 的库存，从而留出了更多缓冲时间，并实现了更早的切换。
Last time around, the company handled it differently. In 2019, Toyota grew RAV4 sales in the U.S. even after transitioning to the vehicle’s fifth generation. A Toyota spokesman said the automaker had more inventory of the 2018 RAV4s on hand at the time, allowing more breathing room and an earlier transition.
新泽西州医疗助理凯特琳·贾尔斯于 5 月初为 RAV4 支付了定金。原本三周的等待变成了三个月。当经销商终于来电话时，贾尔斯从工作岗位赶回家，叫醒了儿子。
Caitlin Giles, a medical assistant in New Jersey, put down a deposit for a RAV4 in early May. Her three-week wait turned into three months. When the dealer finally called, Giles rushed home from work and woke up her son.
“你现在就得送我去经销商，”她回忆自己对他说，“我必须要那辆车。”
“You need to take me to the dealership right now,” she recalls telling him. “I need that car.”