Political moderates around the world are wondering whether the populist genie can be put back into the bottle. What’s happening in the UK should give them hope.

With many democracies now hostage to the whims and caprices of narcissists (see the US and Argentina) or on the cusp of capitulation to the far right (as in France and Germany), the reversal in fortune for populism in Britain is encouraging. After a couple of years characterized by the rise of the MAGA-style Reform UK party and the eco-socialist Greens, the two big beasts of British politics, Labour and the Conservatives, appear to be making a comeback.

Since Andy Burnham arrived as Labour prime minister in July, the party’s fortunes have improved; polls show it’s now clearly the most popular choice among voters for the first time since March 2025. Meanwhile, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s long march back from electoral oblivion also seems to be paying off; her party has risen steadily, if not spectacularly, with some leading pollsters now putting the Conservatives ahead of Reform, pushing Nigel Farage’s outfit into third place.

It all feels very different from as recently as six months ago, when Reform regularly enjoyed double-digit leads and Farage seemed inexorably on course to enter 10 Downing Street as prime minister in a couple of years. At the same time, the Greens, under charismatic new leader Zack Polanski, were riding a wave of enthusiasm that saw his party move into second place. This was an extraordinary situation in a country long defined by a two-party system dominated by Labour and the Tories (with the Liberal Democrats a bit of an afterthought); thanks to Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system, smaller challenger parties have traditionally struggled to make headway with voters.

What troubled me about these upstarts on the left and right wasn’t that they signaled a break from mainstream politics. It was the policies they espoused, the worldview they articulated and, frankly, the manner in which their leaders comported themselves that made me long for a return to business as usual.

I clearly wasn’t alone. The emergence of the Burnham administration three months ago coincided with a period during which both populist movements have begun to show their true colors. Allegations have swirled: about corruption, racism and misogyny for Reform, antisemitism for the Greens, along with suspicions of economic illiteracy for each of them. Faced with the reality of what a vote for Farage or Polanski entails, the electorate is drifting back to the center.

For those elsewhere seeking an explanation for the turnaround and a blueprint for repeating the trick, the answer is reassuringly simple: leadership. In his poem , written just over 100 years ago in the aftermath of World War I and prefiguring the rise of fascism, W.B. Yeats wrote of a time in which: “The best lack all conviction, while the worst / Are full of passionate intensity.”The same holds true today: It’s when “the best” fail that “the worst” begin to appeal.

Burnham’s predecessor as prime minister, Keir Starmer, was a good man but a poor leader; likewise, the Tories in their long stretch in government between 2010 and 2024 had ultimately proved a profound letdown, leading voters to turn against them in the election that brought Starmer to power. Farage and Polanski found fertile ground in railing against the “establishment” parties, and inviting their followers to burn the house down.

What has happened in the last few months is a clear demonstration of the “great man” theory of history. Burnham is a better, more appealing politician than Starmer, and his message of hope and his vision of a future that embraces boldness and change are cutting through the prevailing pessimism. Badenoch, too, has raised her game, with punchy performances in Parliament and on the conference stage, and policies that are beginning to chime with voters who may have assumed they were finished with her party.

There are undoubtedly strong social undercurrents propelling dissatisfaction with the establishment worldwide. Migration, rising energy costs, mounting public debt, the cost of living, the aging population, the climate crisis, increased demand for and expectations of public services — all these and more explain why iconoclasts can seem appealing. But what’s happening in the UK shows that we need not be hostages to events, and that individuals providing leadership, particularly those seeking practical solutions or at least offering some amelioration of the problems of our age, can beat the nihilists who would pit us against each other.

All this must be caveated with the reality that the centrist fightback is still at an early stage, even in the UK. Reform and the Greens are not out of the game by any means, and a handful of opinion polls shouldn’t be taken as definitive proof that Britain has abandoned its flirtation with multi-party politics.

But it’s encouraging that the populists are, well, not so popular these days. The latest YouGov leader polling shows Burnham is easily the most favored leader, with a +4 rating, followed by Badenoch at -15, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey at -16, and Polanski and Farage trailing with -37 and -42 respectively. So the signs are hopeful, and the wider message — that moderates shouldn’t give up, and that the center can and must hold — is heartening for all who care about democracy and decency.