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中东原油关键基准价格因出口韧性跌至三个月低点Key Mideast Oil Benchmark Hits 3-Month Low on Resilient Exports

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中东原油关键基准价格跌至近三个月来的最低水平,这表明尽管伊朗对船只的袭击日益加剧,该地区的原油出口依然表现出韧性。

A key benchmark for Middle East crude fell to its lowest in nearly three months, an indication of the resilience of the region’s exports despite intensifying Iranian attacks on shipping.

据General Index数据,阿曼原油相对于迪拜原油的溢价——这一指标衡量海湾地区实物原油桶的市场强度——本周跌至每桶接近4美元,为7月下旬以来的最低水平。冲突初期,这一价差曾飙升至每桶60美元以上,当时霍尔木兹海峡几乎关闭,严重扰乱了该水道的船运。

The premium of Oman crude over Dubai, a measure of the strength of the market for real world barrels from the Gulf, this week fell to near $4 a barrel, the lowest since late July, according to General Index data. The differential had jumped to above $60 in the early stages of the conflict when the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted shipments through the waterway.

尽管存在袭击风险,中东主要出口国在通过该水道运输油轮方面取得了越来越大的成功,或者通过管道完全避开霍尔木兹海峡。他们的努力削弱了伊朗在与美国和以色列为期七个月的战争中,试图通过掐断全球能源流动来获取筹码的企图。

Major Middle Eastern exporters have found increasing success in moving tankers through the waterway despite the risk of attack, or by avoiding Hormuz altogether using pipelines. Their efforts have eroded Iran’s attempts to gain leverage by choking global energy flows during its seven-month war with the US and Israel.

美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥周二表示,通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量已接近战前水平。由于船只关闭应答机,追踪确切有多少桶石油穿越该水道变得复杂,但情报公司Kpler和Vortexa的数据均显示,自夏季以来,更广泛的中东地区出口量大幅上升。

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that oil flowing through Hormuz was close to prewar levels. Tracking exactly how many barrels are crossing the waterway has become complicated as ships turn off their transponders, but data from intelligence firms Kpler and Vortexa both show that exports from the wider Middle East have jumped sharply since the summer.

斯巴达商品公司(Sparta Commodities SA)石油分析师吴珺(June Goh)表示,由于多批货物可在相对较短时间内交付,“海湾原油市场承受了压力”。

The “Gulf crude oil market has been pressured” by the availability of multiple cargoes at relatively short notice, said June Goh, oil analyst at Sparta Commodities SA.

独立石油交易策略家马蒂亚斯·托格尼(Matias Togni)表示,虽然中东实物原油货物的价格反映了供应动态的改善,但石油期货市场的交易主要基于对未来供应可能趋紧的担忧。

While the price of physical crude cargoes from the Middle East reflects improved supply dynamics, the oil futures market is trading largely on concerns of potentially tighter supply further down the road, said Matias Togni, an independent oil trading strategist.

布伦特原油周三上涨,此前一天因担忧伊朗可能加强对船只的打击以确立对霍尔木兹海峡的控制,油价触及每桶接近112美元的五个月高点。

Brent crude rose on Wednesday after hitting a five-month high near $112 a barrel the previous day amid growing fear that Iran could intensify strikes on vessels in order to assert its control over Hormuz.

对海湾产油国而言,在冲突期间弥补数十亿美元的错失销售,争夺客户的竞争日益激烈。伊拉克通过向区域原油基准提供高达每桶37美元的大幅折扣,几乎已将原油出口恢复到战前水平。这些价格削减部分反映出将石油从该地区运出的高昂成本,油轮租赁费率已达到创纪录高位。

For Gulf producers, there’s growing competition for customers to make up for billions of dollars of missed sales during the conflict. Iraq has almost restored crude exports to prewar levels by offering cargoes at deep discounts of as much as $37 a barrel to regional crude benchmarks. These price reductions in part reflect the high cost of shipping oil out of the region, with tanker rental rates reaching record highs.

据国际能源署称,在成功将石油经霍尔木兹海峡运出的国家中,阿拉伯联合酋长国上月将产量提升至创纪录水平。沙特阿拉伯的产量在9月增长三分之一,达到每天超过800万桶,从前一个月三十多年来的最低水平中恢复过来。

The United Arab Emirates, among the most successful in getting its oil out through the Strait of Hormuz, ramped up production to record-high levels last month, according to the International Energy Agency. Saudi Arabia’s output jumped by a third in September to over 8 million barrels a day, recovering from the lowest in more than three decades in the previous month.

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