波斯湾石油出口已超过战前水平，因为在美国保护下建立的一套临时航运体系正帮助油轮穿越霍尔木兹海峡，度过伊朗发动的最猛烈攻击浪潮之一。
Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels, as an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection is helping tankers move oil through one of Iran’s fiercest waves of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
据船舶追踪机构Kpler统计，包括经霍尔木兹海峡和该地区替代路线在内的中东石油流向，在截至10月18日的一周内日均超过2400万桶，超过战前的2330万桶水平。初步数据显示，同期霍尔木兹海峡石油流向（包括阿曼湾的海上转运）日均约1400万桶，为战前水平的82%。
Middle East oil flows, including shipments through Hormuz and alternative routes across the region, averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through Oct. 18, surpassing prewar levels of 23.3 million, according to ship tracker Kpler. Preliminary figures show Hormuz oil flows, including offshore transfers in the Gulf of Oman, came to around 14 million barrels a day on average for the same period, or 82% of prewar levels.
油价居高不下，基准布伦特原油近日上涨至周二每桶约108美元。交易商担心霍尔木兹海峡局势的改善可能难以持续，特别是如果战斗再次爆发。全球库存减少，几乎没有容错空间。该行动成本高昂，最终会通过加油站价格转嫁给消费者。
Oil prices remain high, and benchmark Brent crude has risen in recent days to around $108 a barrel Tuesday. Traders are concerned the improvement in Hormuz might not be sustainable, particularly if fighting breaks out again. Thinning global inventories leave little margin for error. The operation is also expensive, costs that ultimately flow through to consumers at the pump.
尽管如此，石油流向的韧性标志着全球最重要能源咽喉之争的转折。伊朗仍能让航运变得危险且昂贵，但其阻止过境的能力已减弱，削弱了德黑兰对美国的筹码。
“总体来看，穿越危险霍尔木兹海峡的航运体系现已建立完善，参与石油出口各方的风险偏好已上升，”Capital Economics高级大宗商品经济学家哈马德·侯赛因表示。
Still, the resilience of oil flows marks a shift in the battle over the world’s most important energy chokepoint. Iran can still make shipments dangerous and expensive. But its ability to deter transits has faded, weakening Tehran’s leverage with the U.S.“The big picture is that the system for shipping through a dangerous Strait of Hormuz is now well-established and the risk appetite of those involved in exporting oil has risen,” said Hamad Hussain, a senior commodities economist at Capital Economics.
横跨沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的管道也在通过不同路线输送石油。Kpler估计，9月份约40%从海湾出口的非伊朗原油绕道霍尔木兹海峡，而战前这一比例为17%。
Pipelines across Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also moving oil along different routes. In September, about 40% of the non-Iranian crude shipped out of the Gulf bypassed the strait, compared with 17% before the war, Kpler estimated.
这一成功与伊朗遭受的封锁形成对比，伊朗自身的石油出口因美国海上封锁而受阻。
The success contrasts with the chokehold on Iran, whose own oil exports have been bottled up by a U.S. maritime blockade.
风险在于，伊朗可能试图通过更猛烈的打击来重建其影响力，并有可能在两周后的美国中期选举前将美国卷入另一场对抗。尽管霍尔木兹海峡周边暴力事件升级，海湾石油仍在源源不断地输出。据《华尔街日报》根据英国海上贸易行动中心和海事安保公司的报告统计，本月已报告约30起针对船只的袭击事件。
The risk is Iran could try to re-establish its influence by striking harder and potentially drawing the U.S. into another confrontation before the U.S. midterm elections in two weeks. Gulf oil is flowing despite escalating violence around the strait. About 30 attacks on ships have been reported this month, according to a Wall Street Journal tally based on reports by the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre and maritime security companies.
海事情报公司Windward的高级分析师米歇尔·维泽·博克曼表示，10月份的事件占战争期间遭袭船只总数的20%。
现任职于Neptune P2P Group的前英国海军军官克里斯托弗·朗说：“伊朗正试图重申其对海峡的封锁。”
The incidents in October account for 20% of the ships attacked during the war, said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a senior analyst at maritime intelligence firm Windward.“Iran is trying to reassert its blockade of the strait,” said Christopher Long, a former British naval officer now at Neptune P2P Group.
对许多石油贸易商和船东而言，穿越霍尔木兹海峡的风险是值得冒的。Kpler原油分析主管霍马云·法拉克沙希估计，与战前相比，贸易商转售伊拉克石油每桶可多赚20美元，一艘超大型油轮的货物约可多赚4000万美元。三趟这样的航行就能收回一艘二手油轮1亿美元的成本。
For many oil traders and shipowners, the risk of crossing Hormuz is worth it. Compared with before the war, traders can earn $20 a barrel more reselling Iraqi oil, or about $40 million on cargo from a supertanker, estimated Homayoun Falakshahi, Kpler’s head of crude oil analysis. Three such voyages could repay the $100 million cost of a secondhand tanker.
海员也被提供奖金以执行危险的穿越任务。船员们被两到三倍于正常月薪的报酬所吸引，前往波斯湾航行的船只上工作。据《华尔街日报》报道，一家中国船员配公司为一次往返航程（通常耗时一两周）提供高达2.5万美元的报酬。
法拉克沙希说：“尽管袭击增加，运输量依然维持高位，因为利润使冒险变得值得。”
Seafarers also are being offered bonuses to make the dangerous crossings. Crew members have been lured by payouts two or three times their typical monthly salary to work on ships that venture into the Persian Gulf. One China-based ship-staffing company offered as much as $25,000 for a round-trip, which normally takes a week or two, The Wall Street Journal reported.“The volumes remain high despite rising attacks, because profits make it worth the risk,” Falakshahi said.
船东们正将原本运输委内瑞拉和俄罗斯石油的老旧船只调往波斯湾，船东们表示，这是因为该地区油轮运费达到前所未有的高位。
Some shipowners are repositioning older vessels that used to ferry Venezuelan and Russian oil to the Persian Gulf because of the unprecedented tanker rates in the region, shipbrokers said.
许多船只正在危险区进行短距离穿梭航行。美军空中掩护为阿曼海岸沿线的一条航道提供了一定保护。
Many of the vessels are making short shuttle runs through the danger zone. American air cover provides some protection through a corridor along the Omani coast.
油轮在波斯湾内装油，随后经霍尔木兹海峡运输，往往关闭跟踪信号。它们随后在阿曼附近停泊，将货物转运至前往遥远市场的船只，然后驶回波斯湾，在那里面临被击中的最大风险。
Tankers load oil inside the Gulf and transport it via Hormuz, often with their tracking signals switched off. They then stop near Oman and transfer their cargoes to ships bound for distant markets before heading back into the Gulf, where they face the most risk of being hit.
与此同时，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队正利用无人机和导弹拦截试图航行的船只。它还采用了也门胡塞武装长期使用的游击战术，以打击红海入口处的航运，部署小渔船上的观察员并派遣战斗人员出海。
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, meanwhile, is using drones and missiles to stop ships that try to make the run. It also has turned to guerrilla tactics long employed by Yemen’s Houthis to target traffic around the mouth of the Red Sea, deploying spotters in small fishing boats and sending fighters out onto the water.
该航道依然危险。在9月之前，坦桑尼亚国旗超大型油轮“忠诚”号（Loyalty）常年运送委内瑞拉原油至中国。自9月以来，它已两次进入波斯湾，均前往伊拉克装载原油。
The crossing remains dangerous. Before September, the Tanzania-flagged supertanker Loyalty spent years ferrying Venezuelan crude to China. Since September, it has entered the Persian Gulf twice, both times heading to Iraq to load crude.A crew member said the ship informed the U.S. Navy about each trip and had security personnel onboard.
一名船员表示，该船每次航行都会通知美国海军，且船上配有安保人员。据开普勒（Kpler）和该船员透露，10月初，“忠诚”号在阿曼湾向一艘身份不明的油轮转运了200万桶伊拉克原油，随后返回波斯湾装载新货。
In early October, Loyalty transferred 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil in the Gulf of Oman to an unidentified tanker, then went back into the Gulf to pick up a new load, according to Kpler and the crew member.
该船员称，船舶管理公司为第二次航行给船员发放了防弹衣和头盔。
The crew member said the ship management company sent the crew body armor and helmets for the second trip.
据海事安保公司Vanguard称，10月16日，“忠诚”号遭一艘小艇发射的火箭推进榴弹击中。弹片在一个淡水舱炸出一个洞。据该船员称，遇袭时，“忠诚”号载有200万桶伊拉克原油。
On Oct. 16, Loyalty was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade launched from a small boat, according to maritime security company Vanguard. The projectile carved a hole in a fresh water tank. At the time of the attack, Loyalty was carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil, the crew member said.
袭击事件正推高将海湾原油运往市场的成本。开普勒称，本周将海湾原油运往中国的超大型油轮运费接近每桶37.37美元的纪录高位。据Windward的Wiese Bockmann称，战争风险保险费已从不足3%攀升至船舶价值的高达10%。“4月时，问题是原油短缺。
The attacks are raising the cost of getting Gulf oil to market. Freight for a supertanker carrying Gulf crude to China was near a record $37.37 a barrel this week, Kpler said. War-risk insurance has climbed to as much as 10% of a vessel’s value from less than 3%, according to Windward’s Wiese Bockmann.“In April, the problem was a shortage of crude. In October, it is the cost of moving it,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of the global commodities strategy team at JPMorgan.
“十月份的问题在于运输成本，”摩根大通全球大宗商品策略团队负责人娜塔莎·卡涅娃表示。但尽管伊朗威胁称，如果自己无法出口石油，就不允许邻国运输其石油，石油仍在源源不断地运出。“伊朗必须采取更激进的行动，才能实现其以前对该地区石油流向所拥有的同等控制程度，”凯投宏观的侯赛因说。请致信本瓦·福孔，邮箱 benoit.faucon@wsj.com；格奥尔基·坎切夫，邮箱 georgi.kantchev@wsj.com；以及冯瑞贝卡，邮箱 rebecca.feng@wsj.com。
But oil is still getting through, despite Iran’s threats that it won’t allow its neighbors to ship their oil if it couldn’t export its own.“Iran would have to be more aggressive to achieve the same degree of control it previously possessed over oil flows from the region,” Capital Economics’ Hussain said. Write to Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com, Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com and Rebecca Feng at rebecca.feng@wsj.com