更多石油正穿越霍尔木兹海峡。这对伊朗的战时筹码意味着什么？美国与伊朗的战争揭示了伊朗通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡，以此要挟全球经济的全部力量。数月来，美国竭力重新打开这条通道，却收效甚微。
More oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz. What does that mean for Iran’s wartime leverage? The U.S. war with Iran has revealed the full extent of the power Iran possesses to hold the global economy to ransom by closing the Strait of Hormuz. For months, the U.S. struggled to open it up again, to little avail.
然而上个月，我们迎来了一个惊喜。9月的数据显示，从中东流出的石油量达到开战以来的最高点——其中大部分正是穿越霍尔木兹海峡运出的。本文将探讨这说明了伊朗筹码的何种变化，以及战争的何种状态。伊朗是否失去了对霍尔木兹海峡的控制？
Then last month, we got a surprise. Data for September shows more oil is flowing from the Middle East than at any point since the start of the war — and most of it is coming through the Strait of Hormuz. Today, I write about what that tells us about Iran’s leverage and the state of the war. Has Iran lost control of the Strait of Hormuz?
开战前，每天约有1900万桶原油从中东出口。伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡——这条石油运输的主干道——后，这一数字骤降至微乎其微。后果是一场波及菲律宾等远在地的全球能源危机。
Before the war, some 19 million barrels of crude oil were exported from the Middle East every day. That number slowed to a trickle after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the main route through which this oil traveled. The result was a crippling global energy crisis felt as far away as the Philippines.
但据追踪油轮的公司Kpler数据，上个月出口量攀升至日均1600万桶——虽未恢复战前水平，但已相去不远。其中约600万桶经由陆路管道及红海、阿曼湾港口绕过霍尔木兹海峡运出。但仍有1000万桶成功穿越海峡本身。这是如何发生的？
But last month, according to Kpler, a firm that tracks oil tankers, the numbers climbed back up to an average of 16 million barrels a day — not back to prewar levels, but not so far off either. Some 6 million barrels of that oil is coming through land pipelines and ports on the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. But 10 million are making it through the strait itself. How did this happen?
伊朗战争的故事在许多方面已演变为：伊朗封锁海峡，美国试图重新打开——因此石油重新流动感觉像是一件大事。在某些方面，它确实是。美国显然削弱了伊朗对这一关键水道的杠杆作用。
The story of the Iran war has in many ways become the story of Iran closing the strait, and the U.S. trying to reopen it — and so the fact that oil is moving again feels like a big deal. And in some ways, it is. The U.S. has clearly reduced Iran’s leverage over this critical waterway.
但这并不意味着油价将在短期内下跌。也不意味着美国即将赢得战争。甚至可能让伊朗变得更危险。
But that doesn’t mean that the price of oil is going down any time soon. And it doesn’t mean the U.S. is on the verge of winning the war either. It could even make Iran more dangerous.
石油再次流动 我与同事彼得·伊维斯进行了交谈，他自战争爆发以来一直在监测石油流向。他告诉我，伊朗几乎每天仍在海峡袭击船只。但石油依然能运出去，仅仅是因为现在有更多油轮愿意冒险尝试通过。两个因素的结合有助于解释原因。
Oil is flowing again I spoke to my colleague Peter Eavis, who has been monitoring oil flows since the start of the war. He told me that Iran is still attacking ships in the strait practically every day. But oil is making it out simply because more tankers are now willing to take the risk of trying to cross. And a combination of two things helps explain why.
春季以来，美军一直向愿意冒险穿越海峡的油轮提供空中护航。起初，响应者寥寥无几。
Since the spring, the U.S. military has been offering air protection to tankers willing to take their chances through the strait. Initially, there were few takers.
但随着战争拖延，沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国等国变得越来越急于把石油运出去。彼得说，他们现在向油轮运营商提供巨额资金——在某些情况下是战前费用的十倍。诱惑大到让许多人现在都答应了。
But as the war has dragged on, countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have become increasingly desperate to get their oil out. They’re now offering huge amounts of money — ten times more than prewar fees in some cases, Peter said — to tanker operators. Enough that many are now are saying yes.
结果是石油再次流动，但代价巨大——对美军、对出口石油的海湾国家以及人命而言都是如此。彼得说，过去一个月里，约有二十多名船员在伊朗和美国的袭击中丧生。
The upshot is that oil is flowing again, but at a huge cost — to the U.S. military, to oil-exporting Gulf nations and in human lives. About two dozen crew members have died in Iranian and American strikes in the past month, Peter said.
伊朗仍有筹码 每一桶离开中东的石油理论上都会削弱伊朗施加痛苦的能力。而这发生在伊朗自身也深受其害之时。多年的制裁和数月的战争，加上根据同一份Kpler报告显示，其海运石油出口现已因美国封锁而降至零，导致其经济比以往任何时候都更加疲弱。
Iran still has leverage Every barrel of oil that leaves the Middle East in theory reduces Iran’s ability to inflict pain. And this comes at a time when Iran itself is hurting. It’s been under years of sanctions and months of war, and its own seaborne oil exports have now been reduced to zero by the U.S. blockade, the same Kpler report shows, leaving its economy weaker than ever.
许多人将伊朗上月向美国提出的方案——一个为期七天的停火计划、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，随后开始就其核计划进行全面谈判——解读为伊斯兰共和国渴望结束战争的信号。特朗普表示直接拒绝了该计划，这可被解读为政府认为自己正占据上风的迹象。
Many interpreted Iran’s proposal to the U.S. last month — a seven-day plan to cease hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and then begin comprehensive talks on its nuclear program — as a sign that the Islamic Republic was eager to end the war. Trump said he rejected the plan outright, which could be read as a sign that the administration thinks it’s gaining the upper hand.
但分析人士表示，美国为增加中东石油外运所投入的资源——包括战斗机和配备无人机拦截器的导弹系统——从长远来看是不可持续的。
But the resources the U.S. has dedicated to increasing oil flows out of the Middle East — which involve fighter jets and missile systems with drone interceptors — are not sustainable in the long-term, analysts say.
最近石油运输量的增加迄今几乎未能降低油价。高昂的油轮运营费用加上更高的保险费推高了航运成本。全球石油供应仍不足以满足需求。中国和其他国家正在消耗早前在冲突中帮助稳定油价的能源储备。而冬季及其带来的取暖燃料需求即将到来。
The recent increase in oil flows has also done almost nothing so far to bring down oil prices. Those high tanker operator fees along with higher insurance premiums have driven up the cost of shipping. There’s still not enough oil to meet demand around the world. China and other countries are drawing down the energy reserves that helped stabilize prices earlier in the conflict. And winter, along with its accompanying demands for heating fuel, is coming.
国际危机组织高级伊朗分析师哈米德雷扎·阿齐齐表示，从这个意义上说，伊朗对海峡的控制可能正在减弱，但其总体战略——将油价维持在足以让世界、尤其是美国感受到压力的高位——依然奏效。如果这种局面开始改变，伊朗仍有其他牌可打。
In that sense, Iran’s grip on the strait may be loosening, but its overall strategy — to keep oil prices high enough that the world, and particularly the U.S., feels it — is still working, said Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group. And should that start to change, Iran still has other cards to play.
阿齐齐说，伊朗的盟友、也门胡塞武装仍控制着红海上的曼德海峡，这是另一条关键石油航线。如果伊朗感到压力足够大，还可能开始针对石油源头发动攻击，再次轰炸海湾地区的能源基础设施。
Iran’s allies, the Houthis in Yemen, still have control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea, another crucial oil route. And Iran could, if it felt under enough pressure, begin targeting oil at the source, by bombing energy infrastructure in the Gulf again, Azizi said.
“伊朗人将此视为一场持久战，”他说。“如果油价下跌，或者他们相信美国会再次发动攻击，他们可能会升级冲突。升级是他们对抗美国的主要筹码。”霍尔木兹海峡只是这一筹码的一部分。
“The Iranians see this as a battle of endurance,” he said. “They could escalate if the oil price were to fall or if they believe the Americans will attack again. Escalation is the primary leverage they have over the U.S.” The Strait of Hormuz is just one piece of that leverage.
更多头条新闻 沙特支持的也门政府向胡塞武装宣战，此前一天该民兵组织声称袭击了沙特一家炼油厂。巴西选民在一场可能决定拉丁美洲未来的总统大选中投票。
MORE TOP NEWS The Saudi-backed government in Yemen declared war against the Houthis, a day after the militia claimed an attack on a Saudi oil refinery. Brazilians voted in a presidential race that could define the future of Latin America.
在当地当局撤退后，埃塞俄比亚军队开进了北部提格雷地区的主要城市。新的敌对行动引发全球担忧。
Ethiopia’s military marched into the main city of the northern region of Tigray after the authorities there retreated. The new hostilities have raised global alarm.
日本在一名被指控在冲绳杀害一名女子的美国海军陆战队员被捕后，向美国提出了罕见的抗议。
Japan lodged a rare protest against the U.S. after the arrest of an American Marine accused of killing a woman in Okinawa.
以下是位于英格兰一处偏僻角落的空军基地如何成为美伊冲突的焦点，并引发大规模反恐应对的经过。
Here’s how an air base in a quiet corner of England became a U.S.-Iran flashpoint, setting off a huge counterterrorism response.
伊朗最高安全官员罕见承认，警告经济危机已将该国推入历史上最困难的时期之一。
In a rare admission, Iran’s top security official warned that economic crisis has plunged the country into one of the most difficult periods in its history.
以色列各机构就未能标记一名据称持有极端伊斯兰主义观点的阿曼副驾驶互相推诿，该副驾驶现被指控试图撞毁一架飞往特拉维夫的阿联酋航空航班。以下是我们对飞行员的了解。
Israeli agencies traded blame over the failure to flag an Omani co-pilot said to hold extremist Islamist views now accused of trying to crash a FlyDubai plane to Tel Aviv. Here’s what we know about the pilots.
前波斯尼亚塞族极端民族主义政治领导人比拉娜·普拉夫希奇去世，享年96岁，她是巴尔干战争中唯一被指控战争罪的女性。
Biljana Plavsic, a former Bosnian Serb ultranationalist political leader who was the only woman charged with war crimes in the Balkan wars, died at 96.
世界头条 周五您的通讯中点击率最高的链接是关于人工智能是否会让您的大脑变懒。
TOP OF THE WORLD The most clicked link in your newsletter on Friday was about whether A.I. will make your brain lazy.
今日服装灵感 埃林·哈兰德与浣熊 随着万圣节临近，我们的风尚版编制了一份最具时代精神、最具2026年特色的服装清单。其中包括：互联网最爱的挪威足球巨星，从世界杯归来时带着一只标本浣熊。清单上还有：坏兔子甘蔗丛造型。
COSTUME IDEA OF THE DAY Erling Haaland and raccoon With Halloween approaching, our Styles desk compiled a list of the zeitgeistiest, most 2026-iest costumes. Among them: the internet’s favorite Norwegian football star, returning home from the World Cup with a taxidermied raccoon in tow. Also on the list: a Bad Bunny sugar-cane bush.
晨读 这听起来可能像科幻小说，但世界主要大国正竞相在月球上部署核反应堆。美国希望到2030年在月球南极附近建成一个，而俄罗斯则在与中国的秘密合作中，目标定在2036年。这些反应堆被认为是太空探索未来的关键：它们可为未来的月球基地供电，使获取冰冻水等资源以及发射深入太阳系的任务成为可能。
MORNING READ It may sound like science fiction, but the world’s major powers are racing to put nuclear reactors on the moon. The U.S. wants one near the lunar south pole by 2030, while Russia, in a secretive partnership with China, is aiming for 2036. The reactors are considered key to the very future of space exploration: They could power future moon bases, enabling access to resources like frozen water and the launch of missions deeper into the solar system.
但一些顶尖科学家警告称，各国政府行动过快。近年来，多枚中、美、俄火箭发射失败并爆炸。太空垃圾定期坠落地球。一位专家表示，引入核动力可能会让太空竞赛走向“一个潜在的更危险”方向。时尚快讯 在“裸装”时代，性感是什么样子的？
But some leading scientists caution that governments are moving too quickly. In recent years, multiple Chinese, American and Russian rockets have failed and exploded. Space junk regularly tumbles to Earth. Adding nuclear power could take the space race in “a potentially more dangerous” direction, one expert said. FASHION DISPATCH In an age of naked dressing, what does sexy look like?
这是我们首席时尚评论员瓦妮莎·弗里德曼在最近巴黎时装周汤姆·福特秀场上最关心的问题。在一场越来越不留余地的服装巡礼中，那些暗示肌肤而非直接裸露的套装反而让人感到最为撩人，瓦妮莎表示。看看这些造型，听听她的见解。推荐 断网：即使没有网络，你也可以在手机上收听喜爱的音乐。
It’s the question that was top of mind for our chief fashion critic, Vanessa Friedman, at a recent Tom Ford runway show at Paris Fashion Week. In a parade of looks that left less and less to the imagination, the ensembles that teased the promise of skin rather than bared it were the ones that actually felt the most titillating, Vanessa said. See the looks and hear her take. RECOMMENDATIONS Unplug: You can listen to your favorite music on your phone, even without internet access.
逃离：从意大利一座修复如新的文艺复兴时期修道院，到伦敦的一处隐秘居所，这些新酒店非常适合秋季入住。
Escape: From a restored Renaissance convent in Italy to a London hideaway, these new hotels are perfect for autumn.
阅读：在一本新食谱中，著名餐厅Le Bernardin的主厨表示，佛教能让你在厨房里变得更好（也更快乐）。
Read: In a new cookbook, the chef from the famed restaurant Le Bernardin says Buddhism can make you better (and happier) in the kitchen.
食谱 这道改良版克里奥尔鱼采用省力烹饪法，呈现完美熟度、风味浓郁的鱼肉。酱汁致敬克里奥尔菜的基础风味，运用了洋葱、芹菜和甜椒这“神圣三位一体”。这里是哪里？ 这些色彩斑斓的建筑在哪里？
RECIPE This twist on fish Creole delivers perfectly cooked, flavor-packed fish with a hands-off method. The sauce celebrates the foundational flavors of Creole cuisine, using the “holy trinity” of onion, celery and bell pepper. WHERE IS THIS? Where are these colorful buildings?
游戏时间 这里有今天的拼字游戏、迷你填字游戏、Wordle和数独。点击此处查看所有游戏。
TIME TO PLAY Here are today’s Spelling Bee, Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku. Find all our games here.
今天就到这里。明天见！—— 卡特琳 欢迎您的反馈。请将建议发送至 theworld@nytimes.com。
That’s it for today. See you tomorrow! — Katrin lcome your feedback. Send us your suggestions at theworld@nytimes.com.
卡特琳·本霍尔德是《The World》的主持人，这是《纽约时报》的旗舰全球通讯。
Katrin Bennhold is the host of The World, the flagship global newsletter of The New York Times.