
伊朗的铁路网络能抵消不断扩大的美国制裁吗?阿米尔·索尔塔恩扎德(Amir Soltanzadeh) 2026年10月21日 随着美国制裁扩大至伊朗铁路行业,德黑兰正更加依赖与中国和中亚的陆路交通。但产能限制、延误和成本限制了铁路替代海上贸易的能力。
Can Iran's rail network offset expanding US sanctions? Amir Soltanzadeh October 21, 2026 As US sanctions expand to Iran's rail sector, Tehran is relying more heavily on overland links with China and Central Asia. But capacity constraints, delays and costs limit rail's ability to replace maritime trade.
在伊朗,随着企业应对制裁、地区紧张局势以及贸易路线的中断,铁路运输对于货物运输变得越发重要。美国在其针对伊朗的经济施压行动中开辟了另一个战线,这次的目标是随着海上贸易变得更加困难而使德黑兰日益依赖的铁路。
In Iran rail transport has become important for moving goods as businesses contend with sanctions, regional tensions and disruptions to trade routes The United States has opened another front in its economic pressure campaign against Iran this time targeting the railways Tehran increasingly relies on as maritime trade becomes more difficult.
10月1日,美国财政部将其“经济流放行动”(Operation Economic Outcast)的一部分付诸实施,对三家伊朗铁路公司以及七家汽车制造商和五家汽车零部件外国供应商实施了制裁。
On October 1, the US Treasury sanctioned three Iranian railway companies alongside seven automakers and five foreign suppliers of automotive parts as part of its Operation Economic Outcast.
华盛顿方面表示,伊朗的铁路和汽车行业为国家提供了收入和物流能力,并与涉及伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)的网络有关联。此举的时机意义重大。自美国的海上封锁严重限制了伊朗南部的贸易路线以来,德黑兰一直试图通过其与中国、中亚、俄罗斯和土耳其的陆地边界以及铁路连接运送更多货物。
Washington says Iran's rail and automotive industries provide revenue and logistical capacity to the state and are connected to networks involving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) The timing of the move is significant. Since the US maritime blockade sharply restricted Iran's southern trade routes, Tehran has tried to move more goods through its land borders and railway connections with China, Central Asia, Russia and Turkey.
正当华盛顿决定将铁路运输作为打击目标之际,铁路运输变得更加重要。
Rail transport has become more important just as Washington decided to target it.
伊朗扩大地区铁路连接 据半官方的迈赫尔通讯社(Mehr)报道,伊朗铁路管理局外贸总干事沙里亚尔·纳吉扎德(Shahriar Naghizadeh)表示,该国拥有约1.5万公里(9300英里)的主干线和支线铁路、3.5万多节车厢以及近500台内燃机车。
Iran expands regional rail links Shahriar Naghizadeh, director general for foreign trade at Iran's railway authority, was quoted by the semi-officialMehr news agency as saying that the country has around 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles) of main and secondary railway lines, more than 35,000 wagons and nearly 500 diesel locomotives.
根据纳吉扎德的数据,在截至2026年3月的伊朗财年中,该网络运送了约4400万吨货物,高于上一年的约4000万吨。当局今年的目标是5400万吨。特朗普的柴油协议能拉低美国燃料价格吗?
The network carried around 44 million tons of freight in the Iranian year ending in March 2026, up from about 40 million tons the previous year, according to Naghizadeh. And authorities are targeting 54 million tons this year. Can Trump’s diesel deal bring down US fuel prices?
要观看此视频,伊朗还通过13个铁路口岸与邻国市场相连,从而获得通往土耳其、阿塞拜疆、阿富汗、巴基斯坦的陆路通道,以及经土库曼斯坦通往中亚和中国的后续路线。
To view this video , and Iran is linked to neighboring markets through 13 rail crossings, providing overland access to Turkey, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and onward routes to Central Asia and China via Turkmenistan.
美国的新制裁对外国铁路运营商、货运代理、银行和保险公司将如何继续与伊朗铁路公司进行业务往来提出了疑问。
The new US sanctions raise questions about how foreign railway operators, freight forwarders, banks and insurers will continue dealing with Iranian rail companies.
中伊铁路线路扩张,《彭博社》今年5月报道称,从中国西安开往德黑兰的货运列车班次已从美国封锁前的每周大约一班,增加到大约每三到四天一班。
China-Iran rail traffic expands Bloomberg reported in May that freight trains traveling from the Chinese city of Xi'an to Tehran had increased from around one per week before the US blockade to roughly one every three or four days.
9月,一列载有汽车零部件、消费品和其他货物的列车从中国出发。该列车途经哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦,随后在萨拉赫斯进入伊朗,预计运输时间为14至16天。
In September, a train left China carrying automotive parts, consumer goods and other cargo. It ran through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan before entering Iran at Sarakhs with an expected transit time of 14 to 16 days.
对伊朗而言,此类服务提供了一条通往中国供应商、且能避开霍尔木兹海峡周边地区的路线,但宣传的运输时间并不一定反映进口商的实际体验。
For Iran, such services offer a route to Chinese suppliers that avoids the area around the Strait of Hormuz But advertised transit times do not necessarily reflect what an importer experiences.
自今年早些时候美伊战争爆发以来,穿越霍尔木兹海峡的航运屡遭严重中断,交货日期无法保证。一家中国货运公司向德国之声表示,由于边境检查、海关程序和列车可用性,实际交货时间可能会远超宣传的时间表。
Transiting the Strait of Hormuz has faced recurring and serious disruptions since the start of the US-Iran war earlier this year Delivery date cannot be guaranteed A Chinese freight company told DW that actual delivery times can stretch far beyond advertised schedules because of border inspections, customs procedures and train availability.
该公司估计,在当前条件下,从中国西部到德黑兰的主干线铁路运输将需要50至60天。沿类似路线的公路运输大约需要22至25天。
It estimated that rail transit along the main route from western China to Tehran would take 50-60 days under current conditions. Road transport along a similar route is around 22 to 25 days.
预定的14天运输时间与长达60天的商业估计之间的差距,突显了伊朗面临的核心挑战之一。海关检查、轨距更换、支付问题和制裁都可能成为潜在的延误点。增加列车数量还需要更多的机车、车厢以及几个过境国的合作。
The gap between a scheduled 14-day transit time and commercial estimates of up to 60 days highlights one of the central challenges facing Iran. Customs inspections, gauge changes, payment problems and sanctions can all be another potential point of delay. Increasing the number of trains also requires more locomotives, wagons and cooperation from several transit countries.
铁路最适合运输关键投入品。总部位于伦敦的“中东分析”(Middle East Analytica)董事总经理阿里雷扎·萨拉瓦蒂(Alireza Salavati)表示,铁路对伊朗的作用日益重要,但不应被误认为是海上贸易的替代品。
Rail works best for critical inputs Alireza Salavati, managing director of London-based Middle East Analytica, said rail is increasingly useful for Iran but should not be mistaken as a replacement for maritime trade.
他向德国之声(DW)表示:“一条可行的陆路走廊现在连接着中国和伊朗,但我不会称之为海运的替代品。”
"A workable overland route now links China and Iran, but I would not call it a replacement for sea freight," he told DW.
在正常情况下,船舶能够以更低的单位成本运送数量大得多的货物。对于那些速度和连通性比最便宜的运输方式更重要的货物,铁路更具吸引力。
Under normal conditions, ships can move far larger quantities at lower unit costs. Rail becomes more attractive for goods where speed and continuity matter more than the cheapest transport.
这包括汽车零部件、机械、电子产品以及工业投入品,缺少这些物资可能会使整条生产线停工。美军集结:释放了什么信号?
That includes automotive components, machinery, electronics and industrial inputs whose absence can stop an entire production line. US military buildup: What message is it sending Iran?
当延迟演变成资金问题萨拉瓦蒂认为,对企业的影响不能仅以运费来衡量。
When delays become a cash problem Salavati argues that the effect on companies cannot be measured only in freight charges.
对于一家每30天进口价值100万美元(合89万欧元)投入品的制造商而言,30天的行程意味着大约100万美元的库存可能会被困在运输途中。
For a manufacturer importing $1 million (€890,000) worth of inputs every 30 days, a 30-day journey means roughly a million dollars of inventory may be tied up in transit.
根据付款安排,将行程缩短至15天可以显著减少这一金额。相反的情况则会更具破坏性。
Cutting the journey to 15 days could reduce that amount significantly, depending on payment arrangements. The reverse can be much more damaging.
这位专家解释说,如果投入品成本上升,而交货时间从30天延长至45天,企业仅仅为了维持相同的生产流程就需要更多的营运资金。他指出,一家工厂可能会有客户和订单,但仍不得不减产,因为有太多的现金被困在尚未抵达的货物中。
If input costs rise while delivery times stretch from 30 to 45 days, companies need more working capital simply to maintain the same production flow, the expert explained, pointing out that a factory can have customers and orders but still have to reduce production because too much cash is trapped in goods that have not arrived.
萨拉瓦蒂说:“可靠性与速度同等重要。如果集装箱要等上一周才能出发,或者银行和保险公司不愿涉及,那么15天的列车用处就不大。”新的美国制裁为这一算盘增添了又一个不确定性来源。
"Reliability matters as much as speed," Salavati said. "A 15-day train is little use if the container waits a week to depart, or if the bank or insurer will not touch it." The new US sanctions add another source of uncertainty to that calculation.
制裁将贸易推向其他走廊优化铁路利用将为伊朗提供更多选择,使其不必仅依赖南部港口,但总体规模依然有限。
Sanctions push trade toward other corridors Optimizing its railway use would give Iran more options than having to rely on southern ports alone, but the overall scale remains limited.
华盛顿的制裁战略旨在通过切断海运、金融、航空,如今又包括铁路渠道,来孤立伊朗。
Washington's sanction strategy is designed to isolate Iran by closing maritime, financial, aviation and now railway channels.
不过,萨拉瓦蒂认为,同样的压力可能会加速伊朗融入替代性网络。
Still, Salavati argues that the same pressure may accelerate Iran's integration with alternative networks.
他说:“华盛顿孤立伊朗的努力,或许也在把伊朗推向比近年来任何时候都更深的中国经济轨道,并使其更接近俄罗斯的战时战略体系。”
"Washington's efforts to isolate Iran may also be pushing it deeper than at any point in recent years into China's economic orbit and closer to Russia's wartime strategic system," he said.
这并不意味着中国或俄罗斯能弥补美国施压造成的经济损失,因为伊朗进口商仍需要保险公司、银行以及能够承担更高价格的客户。
That does not mean China or Russia can make up for the economic cost of US pressure, since Iranian importers still need insurers, banks and customers able to absorb higher prices.
集装箱列车只能运输大型货轮运力的一小部分,因此目前铁路仅为伊朗提供了一个有限的替代贸易渠道。其更广泛的成功取决于更好的融资和更高的可靠性 —— 但即便如此,它也无法完全替代海运。
Container trains can only carry a fraction of what a large cargo vessel can transport, so for now, rail provides Iran with a limited alternative trade channel Its wider success depends on better financing and becoming more reliable — but even then it is not a wholesale substitute for sea freight.