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埃隆·马斯克为何想合并SpaceX与特斯拉Why Elon Musk Wants to Merge SpaceX and Tesla

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这位全球首富已公开支持合并SpaceX和特斯拉的潜在计划,这或将成为史上规模最大的并购交易。

The world’s richest man has publicly backed a potential combination of SpaceX and Tesla in what could be the biggest merger in history.

周二,这两家公司的首席执行官兼最大股东埃隆·马斯克表示,应股东要求,这家电动汽车制造商和这家火箭公司已成立特别委员会来讨论这一设想。

On Tuesday, Elon Musk, the CEO and largest shareholder of both companies, said the electric vehicle maker and the rocket company had formed special committees at the request of shareholders to discuss the idea.

n马斯克在与SpaceX投资者的电话会议上表示:“我确实认为将两家公司合并有很大的优势,因为我们几乎正处于超级智能奇点,合作可以带来很多好处。”

“I do think there’s a lot of merit to combining the companies as we are pretty much in the superintelligence singularity, and there’s a lot to be gained from cooperating,” Musk told SpaceX investors on a conference call.

他补充说:“我认为这是一个好主意,但实际上这取决于两家公司的特别委员会。”

“I think it would be a good idea, but it’s really up to the special committees of both companies,” he added.

这些委员会由独立董事组成,需要在将交易提交给股东投票之前,就任何交易的条款达成一致。马斯克表示,他的利益冲突使他无法参与他们的讨论。

The committees, which are made up of independent directors, would need to agree on the transaction terms of any deal before putting it to shareholders for a vote. Musk said his conflict of interest prevents him from participating in their discussions.

n马斯克此前曾透露过特斯拉与SpaceX合并的意向。在7月22日的财报电话会议上,马斯克表示,随着两家公司向人工智能和机器人领域扩展,特斯拉与SpaceX之间的“重叠越来越多”。上周,巴克莱银行的分析师暗示,该合并可能会在特斯拉12月的年度股东大会之前宣布。周二的电话会议首次确认了这两家公司正在正式探讨合并事宜。

Musk has previously teased a Tesla-SpaceX merger. On a July 22 earnings call, Musk said there was “more and more overlap” between Tesla and SpaceX as the companies expand into artificial intelligence and robotics. Last week, Barclays analysts suggested that a merger could be announced before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in December. Tuesday’s call was the first confirmation that the companies were formally exploring a combination.

合并可能创造一家价值约3.5万亿美元的公司,使其跻身全球最具价值公司的行列。这也可能成为交易额史上最大的并购,并可能超过SpaceX在2月以创纪录的2500亿美元收购马斯克旗下的AI公司xAI。SpaceX目前的估值约为2万亿美元,特斯拉为1.5万亿美元。根据交易条款以及投资者对合并后公司的估值,这笔交易还可能帮助马斯克重新跻身万亿富翁行列。马斯克持有SpaceX约48%的股份,持有特斯拉约20%的股份。

A merger could create a company worth around $3.5 trillion, putting it among the world’s most valuable companies. It could also become the biggest merger ever by deal value, potentially surpassing SpaceX’s record-setting $250 billion acquisition of Musk-owned AI company xAI in February. SpaceX is currently valued at about $2 trillion, and Tesla at $1.5 trillion. A deal could also help propel Musk back into trillionaire ranks, depending on its terms and how investors value the combined company. Musk owns around 48% of SpaceX and 20% of Tesla.

这两家公司的股价在周二盘后交易中上涨。于6月上市的SpaceX报告称,季度净利润为44亿美元。马斯克告诉投资者,他预计到2027年底,年度经常性收入将在5000亿美元至1万亿美元之间。

The shares of both companies rose in after-hours trading on Tuesday. SpaceX, which went public in June, reported a quarterly net profit of $4.4 billion. Musk told investors he expects annual recurring revenue of between $500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027.

然而,一些分析师警告称,该交易将面临监管和地缘政治障碍,特别是在特斯拉的中国业务和SpaceX的美国国防业务方面。晨星公司的分析师表示,合并可能会引发美国对合并后公司供应链的国家安全担忧。摩根大通的分析师也指出,中国对该交易的监管批准是一个潜在的绊脚石。

Some analysts, however, have warned of regulatory and geopolitical hurdles, particularly in terms of Tesla’s Chinese operations and SpaceX’s U.S. defence work. Morningstar analysts said a merger could raise U.S. national security concerns involving the combined company’s supply chain. JPMorgan analysts also flagged regulatory approval in China as a potential stumbling block.

任何交易都可能面临国会的审查,如果在即将到来的中期选举中民主党赢得任一院的控制权,这种审查可能会加剧。民主党议员此前曾就利益冲突质问马斯克,并对有关中国对SpaceX投资的报道提出了国家安全担忧。民主党过去也曾以消费者保护为由对重大收购提出质疑。6月,参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(民主党-马萨诸塞州)批评了SpaceX的IPO,并援引马斯克高度集中的投票权和疲软的投资者保护——这些担忧可能会在特斯拉与SpaceX的合并中重现。

Any deal could also face congressional scrutiny, which could intensify if Democrats win control of either chamber in the coming midterm elections. Democratic lawmakers have previously questioned Musk over conflicts of interest and raised national security concerns about reported Chinese investments in SpaceX. Democrats have also challenged major acquisitions in the past on consumer protection grounds. In June, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D, Mass.) criticized SpaceX’s IPO, citing Musk’s concentrated voting power and weak investor protections—concerns that could resurface in a Tesla-SpaceX merger.

为何合并至关重要:合并可以将马斯克的两项最大业务置于同一个企业伞下,从而使两家公司更容易在项目之间转移投资和资源。“这将使他能够在同一屋檐下运营所有业务,而不会引发那么多的治理问题,”晨星公司分析师塞思·戈德斯坦和尼古拉斯·欧文斯在6月写道。“例如,马斯克可以调动特斯拉的软件开发人员或工程师去从事SpaceX的AI项目,反之亦然,或者让特斯拉和SpaceX互为供应商,而无需进行关联交易披露,也不会冒着引发股东诉讼的风险——即指控一家公司的资源被挪用以使另一家公司受益。”

Why a merger matters A merger could bring two of Musk’s biggest businesses under one corporate umbrella, making it easier for the companies to move investments and resources between projects. “This would allow him to run all their operations under one roof without tripping on as many governance issues,” wrote Morningstar analysts Seth Goldstein and Nicolas Owens in June. “For example, Musk could move Tesla software developers or engineers to work on SpaceX AI projects, and vice versa, or have Tesla and SpaceX supply one another without the need for related party transaction disclosures or risking shareholder lawsuits claiming the resources of one firm are being diverted for the benefit of the other.”

分析师指出,特斯拉的无人驾驶出租车可以受益于星链连接,而其自动驾驶汽车和擎天柱人形机器人可以更紧密地整合SpaceX的AI技术。与此同时,SpaceX计划中的轨道数据中心可能会受益于获取特斯拉的电池和储能产品。

Analysts noted that Tesla’s robotaxis could benefit from Starlink connectivity, while its autonomous vehicles and Optimus humanoid robots could more closely integrate SpaceX’s AI technology. SpaceX’s planned orbital data centers, meanwhile, could potentially benefit from access to Tesla’s battery and energy storage products.

合并后的公司还可能意味着对AI价值链多个阶段的更大控制权,从芯片设计、计划制造到计算基础设施、AI软件以及其在汽车和机器人中的部署。

A combined company could also mean greater control of several stages of the AI value chain, from chip design and planned manufacturing to computing infrastructure, AI software, and its deployment in vehicles and robots.

这两家公司已经开展了合作。3月,他们宣布了Terafab项目,这是一个旨在为特斯拉的汽车和人形机器人以及SpaceX计划中的AI卫星生产芯片的半导体合资制造项目。SpaceX的技术也被用于某些特斯拉产品,包括使用SpaceX开发的推进器的新款Roadster原型车。

The companies already collaborate. In March, they announced Terafab, a joint semiconductor manufacturing project intended to produce chips for Tesla’s vehicles and humanoid robots and SpaceX’s planned AI satellites. SpaceX technologies have also been used in some Tesla products, including the new Roadster prototype, which uses SpaceX-developed thrusters.

市场研究公司The Futurum Group的技术顾问大卫·尼科尔森对英国广播公司表示,合并似乎也符合马斯克长期以来殖民火星的雄心。马斯克此前曾概述了用SpaceX的星舰飞船将特斯拉的擎天柱机器人送往该星球的计划。

David Nicholson, chief technology advisor at market research firm The Futurum Group, told the BBC that a merger also appears to align with Musk’s long-held ambition of colonizing Mars. Musk previously outlined plans to send Tesla’s Optimus robots to the planet aboard SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft.

合并还可以增强马斯克对特斯拉发展方向的影响力。巴克莱估计,SpaceX收购特斯拉可能会使马斯克获得合并后公司约37%的股份,同时控制其约56%的投票权。他目前控制着SpaceX约82%的投票权和特斯拉约20%的投票权。这对于股东来说可能既是福利也是风险,因为决策速度会加快,但制衡会减少。

A merger could also strengthen Musk’s influence over Tesla’s direction. Barclays estimated that a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla could give Musk around 37% of the combined company while controlling around 56% of its voting power. He currently controls around 82% of voting power at SpaceX and 20% at Tesla. That could represent either a benefit or a risk for shareholders, as decision-making would become faster but have fewer checks.

晨星公司分析师大卫·塞克拉本月早些时候写道:“关于SpaceX和特斯拉,我认为人们讨论得还不够的一点是:这里仍然存在大量的‘关键人物风险’。上帝保佑,如果埃隆·马斯克发生任何意外的话。”

“One thing I don’t think people talk enough about with SpaceX and Tesla as well: You do still have a huge amount of key-man risk here,” wrote Morningstar analyst David Sekera earlier this month. “God forbid anything were to happen to Elon Musk.”

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