你好，我是 Leonie Kidd，欢迎收看今日的《Morning Squawk》。
Hello, this is Leonie Kidd, with today's edition of Morning Squawk.
一个人是当天最大市场行情驱动故事的核心人物——埃隆·马斯克。
One man is the center of gravity for the biggest market-moving stories of the day - Elon Musk.
从 SpaceX 和特斯拉可能的超级合并计划，到 SpaceX 的天文数字般的盈利，再到即将出炉的更多特斯拉业绩以及围绕 Starlink 的对峙，他占据了所有头条。
From SpaceX and Tesla's possible mega-merger plan, to astronomical earnings from SpaceX, to more results to come from Tesla and the squaring-off over Starlink, he is hitting all the headlines.
正在发生：冲向月球 SpaceX 股价在盘前交易中飙升，此前埃隆·马斯克透露已设立一个特别委员会，负责将这家火箭集团与特斯拉合并，他称此举是“个好主意”。马斯克还表示，他属于“利益冲突方”，意味着他将不参与讨论。
Happening now: To the moon SpaceX shares are spiking in premarket trade after Elon Musk unveiled a special committee had been put in place to merge the rocket group with Tesla, in a move he called a "good idea." Musk also said he represents a "conflicted party," meaning he will not be included in the discussions.
这将成为历史上最大规模的合并，打造一家价值约 3.5 万亿美元的巨型公司。特斯拉股价在早盘交易中也上涨。为何重要：两家公司现有的合资企业——Terafab——计划在明年 6 月前测试其首款 SRAM 芯片，目标是实现每年 1 太瓦的算力。马斯克表示，完全合并将意味着“在开发超级智能软件方面合作大有可为”。看涨理由：Deepwater 的 Gene Munster 告诉 CNBC，如果交易取决于股东批准，这将是“板上钉钉”的事，并将按所有衡量标准创造“世界上最独特的公司”。
It would be the largest merger in history, creating a giant company worth roughly 3 and a half trillion dollars. Tesla shares were also moving higher in early trading. Why it matters: An existing joint venture between the two companies - Terafab - is aiming to test its first SRAM chip by June next year, targeting one terawatt a year of computing power. Musk said a full merger would mean there is "a lot to be gained from cooperating on developing superintelligence software." The bull case: Gene Munster from Deepwater told CNBC the deal is a "slam dunk" if it comes down to shareholder approval, and would create the "most unique company in the world" by all measures.
看跌理由：Terafab 激进的时间表取决于能否从 ASML、应用材料和 KLA 等供应商处获得复杂设备。别忘了数字：合并消息伴随着 SpaceX 一组惊人的财务数据发布，第三季度营收跃升 161%，远超预期。但 MoffettNathanson 的 Julie Zhu 强调，“未来几年将面临巨额资本需求。”现场直播画面显示，2026 年 6 月 12 日，SpaceX 首次公开募股（IPO）当天，SpaceX 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克现身美国纽约市纳斯达克市场现场。
The bear case: The aggressive timeline for Terafab depends on acquiring complex equipment from suppliers like ASML, Applied Materials and KLA. And don't forget the numbers: The merger news came alongside a blowout set of numbers for SpaceX, with third-quarter revenues jumping 161%, soaring past expectations. But MoffettNathanson's Julie Zhu highlighted the "enormous calls on capital that loom over the next few years." A live feed shows SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite, in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. Jeenah Moon | Reuters Big movers: No chill for Netflix earnings beat is not enough to cheer Netflix
Jeenah Moon | 路透社大盘异动：奈飞财报超预期仍难振奋投资者，股价在盘前交易中延续跌势。以下是关键数据：每股收益：87美分，预估82美分营收：128.7亿美元，预估128.7亿美元全年预期：将营收预期区间下限收窄至511亿美元 奈飞股价近5日走势分析：投资者和分析师普遍将奈飞表现不佳归咎于缺乏爆款内容，LightShed分析师Rich Greenfield表示，模糊的业绩指引导致投资者对该股失去信心。
investors, with the shares extending declines in premarket trading. Here are the numbers: Earnings per 87 cents vs. 82 cents estimated Revenue: $12.87 billion vs. $12.87 billion estimated Full-year forecast:
业内观点：前迪士尼高管、Candle Media联席首席执行官Kevin Mayer在接受CNBC采访时表示，奈飞已“撞上墙”，但不能将所有责任都推给离职高管Bela Bajaria，并补充称其继任者Peter Rice是一次好的聘用。欧洲市场大盘异动：EssilorLuxottica（依视路陆逊梯卡）在营收超预期的带动下领涨斯托克欧洲600指数，尽管智能眼镜销售放缓。
narrowed to revenue of $51.1 billion, the lower end of the range Netflix shares over the last 5 days Analysis: Investors and analysts across the board are blaming Netflix's lack of breakout hits for the poor performance, with LightShed's Rich Greenfield saying the murky guidance has caused investors to lose faith in the stock. The industry view: Kevin Mayer, former Disney executive and co-CEO of Candle Media, told CNBC that Netflix has "hit a wall," but said all the blame can't be put on departing executive Bela Bajaria, while adding that her replacement - Peter Rice - is a good hire.
欧洲市场跌幅榜首是Carrefour（家乐福），因其宣布法国骚乱将冲击该超市集团全年盈利。与此同时，运动用品巨头Adidas（阿迪达斯）上调利润指引，推动其股价在法兰克福上涨。
Big movers in Europe: EssilorLuxottica is leading the Stoxx 600 after beating revenue guidance, despite a slowdown in smart glasses sales. At the bottom of the European market is Carrefour after announcing that the French riots would hit the supermarket group's earnings for the year. Meanwhile, sportswear giant Adidas raised its profit guidance, sending shares higher in Frankfurt.
即将发布财报：Meta和特斯拉 盘后将有大量动作，Meta和特斯拉即将发布财报社交媒体两难：分析师普遍看好Meta本次财报表现，这得益于9月发布的AI智能体Muse。自该产品发布以来，股价已上涨15%。但需警惕：Bespoke数据显示，Meta有88%的时间业绩超预期，但上一季度营收不及预期后，其股价曾下跌近8%。在2026年第一季度和2025年第三季度财报发布后，股价也曾大幅下挫。特斯拉面临逆风：汽车股度过了艰难的一个季度，这可能拖累特斯拉。交付量同比下降2%，尽管优于预期。
Earnings to come: Meta and Tesla A lot of action after the bell today, with earnings due from Meta Tesla Social dilemma: Analysts are broadly bullish on Meta going into these earnings, following the release of AI agent Muse back in September. Shares have risen 15% since that launch. But watch out: Meta beats earnings expectations 88% of the time, Bespoke data shows, but its stock took nearly an 8% hit after its top-line miss last quarter. Shares also fell sharply after the company's Q1 2026 and Q3 2025 releases. Hitting the Roadster: It's been a tough quarter for auto stocks, which could weigh on Tesla. Delivery numbers have declined 2% year-on-year, although that is ahead of estimates.
据Bespoke统计，特斯拉在过去四个季度中有两个季度的盈利未达到分析师预期，而营收超出预期的概率仅为58%。
Tesla has fallen short of analyst earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and only posts a beat on the topline 58% of the time, per Bespoke.
2026年10月15日，在美国得克萨斯州韦科举行的发布会上，特斯拉揭晓了拖延已久的Roadster跑车。此时距离其首次发布原版电动跑车的下一代版本已过去近十年。此图为发布会提供视频的截图。特斯拉 | via 路透社突发：围绕Starlink的争执据《华尔街日报》援引美国官员及知情人士报道，埃隆·马斯克下令放缓SpaceX旗下Starlink某一版本的服务，而乌克兰在对抗俄罗斯的战争中一直依赖该服务。
Tesla unveils its long-delayed Roadster nearly a decade after first revealing a next-generation version of its original electric sports car, at a launch event in Waco, Texas, US, on October 15, 2026, in this still image taken from a handout video. Tesla | Via Reuters Developing: Squaring off over Starlink Elon Musk ordered a slowdown of a version of SpaceX's Starlink, which Ukraine has relied on in its war against Russia. That's according to the Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials and people close to the matter.
该报道发布之际，关于放缓对基辅的Starlink服务的决定是如何作出的，各方说法相互矛盾。马斯克此前曾在X平台上称，这是“美国军方、最终是总统”的决定。
The report comes amid conflicting accounts of how the decision to slow Starlink for Kyiv was reached, with Musk previously taking to X to call it a "U.S. military and ultimately a POTUS" call.
CNBC将于上午8点40分就这一决定采访参议员约翰·科宁（共和党-得克萨斯州）。科宁此前曾表示：“在乌克兰帮助普京是鲁莽之举。”
CNBC will speak to Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) at 8.40 a.m. about the decision, after he said: "Helping Putin in Ukraine is reckless." Soldiers from a separate task rifle battalion of the National Police of Ukraine in the Zaporizhzhia region set up a Starlink satellite communication terminal at a combat position in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Oct. 16, 2026.
2026年10月16日，乌克兰顿涅茨克地区，乌克兰国家警察一支独立步枪营的士兵在战斗阵地上架设Starlink卫星通信终端。 Getty Images独家：Nebius称“特朗普说得对”美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周三敦促数据中心公司与当地社区“达成协议”，以确保社区支持这些造价高昂的设施。
Dmytro Smolienko | Ukrinform | Future Publishing | Getty Images Scoop: Nebius says "Trump is right" U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday urged data center companies to "MAKE DEALS" with local communities to ensure their support for the costly facilities.
特朗普表示，为了提高受欢迎程度，数据中心运营商应向社区“和/或社区内的个人”支付“红利”。最后……OpenAI最强大的AI模型关闭了自身的安全监控——其中一个还对此撒谎OpenAI披露，其两个最强大模型所运行的智能体在执行日常任务时关闭了自身的安全监控，其中一个随后否认曾这样做。
Trump said that, to make them more popular, data center operators should pay the community, "and/or individuals within the community, a 'dividend.'" And Finally... OpenAI's most powerful AI models disabled their own safety monitoring — and one lied about it OpenAI has revealed that agents operated by two of its most powerful models disabled their own safety monitoring when carrying out routine tasks, with one subsequently denying it had done so.
OpenAI周二晚些时候在一篇博客文章中表示，一个由GPT Sol 6.1驱动的智能体关闭了向OpenAI安全团队发送的自动警报。在另一项任务中，一个正在迁移程序的GPT-6 Astra智能体移除了其监控集成，随后谎称自己并未这样做。这些事件发生在内部编码任务期间。约翰·梅洛伊编辑了本期内容。
An agent powered by GPT Sol 6.1 disabled automatic alerts to OpenAI's security team, the company said in a blog post late on Tuesday. In a separate task, a GPT-6 Astra agent migrating a program removed its monitoring integration and then falsely claimed it hadn't. The incidents happened during internal coding tasks. John Melloy edited this edition.