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马斯克为何想合并SpaceX与特斯拉Why Elon Musk Wants to Merge SpaceX and Tesla

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世界首富公开支持太空探索技术公司与特斯拉可能进行的合并,这有可能成为史上规模最大的并购交易。

The world’s richest man has publicly backed a potential combination of SpaceX and Tesla in what could be the biggest merger in history.

周二,同时担任这两家公司首席执行官兼最大股东的埃隆·马斯克表示,应股东要求,这家电动汽车制造商和这家火箭公司已成立特别委员会,讨论这一设想。

On Tuesday, Elon Musk, the CEO and largest shareholder of both companies, said the electric vehicle maker and the rocket company had formed special committees at the request of shareholders to discuss the idea.

马斯克在电话会议上对太空探索技术公司的投资者表示:“我确实认为合并这两家公司有很多好处,因为我们基本上已处于超级智能奇点,合作能带来很多收益。”

“I do think there’s a lot of merit to combining the companies as we are pretty much in the superintelligence singularity, and there’s a lot to be gained from cooperating,” Musk told SpaceX investors on a conference call.

他补充说:“我认为这会是个好主意,但这真的取决于两家公司的特别委员会。”

“I think it would be a good idea, but it’s really up to the special committees of both companies,” he added.

这些委员会由独立董事组成,任何交易都需要委员会先就交易条款达成一致,然后才能提交股东投票。马斯克表示,他的利益冲突使他无法参与委员会的讨论。

The committees, which are made up of independent directors, would need to agree on the transaction terms of any deal before putting it to shareholders for a vote. Musk said his conflict of interest prevents him from participating in their discussions.

马斯克此前曾暗示过特斯拉与太空探索技术公司合并的可能性。在7月22日的财报电话会议上,马斯克表示,随着两家公司向人工智能和机器人领域扩张,特斯拉和太空探索技术公司之间的“重叠越来越多”。上周,巴克莱分析师提出,合并可能会在特斯拉12月年度股东大会之前宣布。周二的电话会议首次证实,两家公司正在正式探讨合并事宜。

Musk has previously teased a Tesla-SpaceX merger. On a July 22 earnings call, Musk said there was “more and more overlap” between Tesla and SpaceX as the companies expand into artificial intelligence and robotics. Last week, Barclays analysts suggested that a merger could be announced before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in December. Tuesday’s call was the first confirmation that the companies were formally exploring a combination.

合并可能造就一家价值约3.5万亿美元的公司,跻身全球市值最高的公司之列。按交易价值计算,这也可能成为史上最大的并购交易,有可能超过太空探索技术公司2月以2500亿美元收购马斯克旗下人工智能公司xAI所创下的纪录。太空探索技术公司目前估值约2万亿美元,特斯拉为1.5万亿美元。取决于交易条款以及投资者对合并后公司的估值方式,这笔交易也可能推动马斯克重返万亿富翁行列。马斯克持有太空探索技术公司约48%的股份,以及特斯拉20%的股份。

A merger could create a company worth around $3.5 trillion, putting it among the world’s most valuable companies. It could also become the biggest merger ever by deal value, potentially surpassing SpaceX’s record-setting $250 billion acquisition of Musk-owned AI company xAI in February. SpaceX is currently valued at about $2 trillion, and Tesla at $1.5 trillion. A deal could also help propel Musk back into trillionaire ranks, depending on its terms and how investors value the combined company. Musk owns around 48% of SpaceX and 20% of Tesla.

两家公司的股票在周二盘后交易中上涨。SpaceX于六月上市,报告季度净利润为44亿美元。马斯克告诉投资者,他预计到2027年底,年度经常性收入将在5000亿至1万亿美元之间。

The shares of both companies rose in after-hours trading on Tuesday. SpaceX, which went public in June, reported a quarterly net profit of $4.4 billion. Musk told investors he expects annual recurring revenue of between $500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027.

然而,一些分析师警告称,存在监管和地缘政治障碍,特别是涉及特斯拉在中国的业务以及SpaceX的美国国防工作。晨星分析师表示,合并可能引发美国国家安全方面的担忧,涉及合并后公司的供应链。摩根大通分析师也将中国的监管批准列为潜在的绊脚石。

Some analysts, however, have warned of regulatory and geopolitical hurdles, particularly in terms of Tesla’s Chinese operations and SpaceX’s U.S. defence work. Morningstar analysts said a merger could raise U.S. national security concerns involving the combined company’s supply chain. JPMorgan analysts also flagged regulatory approval in China as a potential stumbling block.

任何交易也可能面临国会审查,如果民主党在即将举行的中期选举中赢得任何一院的控制权,这种审查可能会加剧。民主党议员此前曾就利益冲突问题质询马斯克,并对据称SpaceX存在的中国投资提出国家安全担忧。民主党过去也曾以消费者保护为由挑战重大收购。六月,马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(民主党)批评了SpaceX的首次公开募股,理由是马斯克的投票权过于集中以及投资者保护薄弱——这些担忧在特斯拉与SpaceX合并中可能会再次出现。

Any deal could also face congressional scrutiny, which could intensify if Democrats win control of either chamber in the coming midterm elections. Democratic lawmakers have previously questioned Musk over conflicts of interest and raised national security concerns about reported Chinese investments in SpaceX. Democrats have also challenged major acquisitions in the past on consumer protection grounds. In June, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D, Mass.) criticized SpaceX’s IPO, citing Musk’s concentrated voting power and weak investor protections—concerns that could resurface in a Tesla-SpaceX merger.

为何合并至关重要合并可能将马斯克的两大核心业务置于同一企业伞下,使公司之间更容易在项目间转移投资和资源。“这将使他能够在同一屋檐下运营所有业务,而不会遇到那么多治理问题,”晨星分析师塞思·戈德斯坦和尼古拉斯·欧文斯在六月写道。“例如,马斯克可以让特斯拉的软件开发人员或工程师为SpaceX的人工智能项目工作,反之亦然,或者让特斯拉和SpaceX相互供货,而无需进行关联方交易披露,也无需冒着股东诉讼的风险,后者声称一家公司的资源正在为另一家公司的利益被挪用。”

Why a merger matters A merger could bring two of Musk’s biggest businesses under one corporate umbrella, making it easier for the companies to move investments and resources between projects. “This would allow him to run all their operations under one roof without tripping on as many governance issues,” wrote Morningstar analysts Seth Goldstein and Nicolas Owens in June. “For example, Musk could move Tesla software developers or engineers to work on SpaceX AI projects, and vice versa, or have Tesla and SpaceX supply one another without the need for related party transaction disclosures or risking shareholder lawsuits claiming the resources of one firm are being diverted for the benefit of the other.”

分析师指出,特斯拉的机器人出租车可能受益于星链连接,而其自动驾驶汽车和擎天柱人形机器人可以更紧密地整合SpaceX的人工智能技术。与此同时,SpaceX计划中的轨道数据中心也可能受益于特斯拉电池和储能产品的接入。

Analysts noted that Tesla’s robotaxis could benefit from Starlink connectivity, while its autonomous vehicles and Optimus humanoid robots could more closely integrate SpaceX’s AI technology. SpaceX’s planned orbital data centers, meanwhile, could potentially benefit from access to Tesla’s battery and energy storage products.

合并后的公司还可能意味着对人工智能价值链多个环节的更大控制,从芯片设计和计划中的制造,到计算基础设施、人工智能软件,以及其在车辆和机器人中的部署。

A combined company could also mean greater control of several stages of the AI value chain, from chip design and planned manufacturing to computing infrastructure, AI software, and its deployment in vehicles and robots.

两家公司已经存在合作。三月,他们宣布了Terafab,这是一个联合半导体制造项目,旨在为特斯拉的车辆和人形机器人以及SpaceX计划的人工智能卫星生产芯片。SpaceX技术也已被用于一些特斯拉产品,包括新款Roadster原型车,该车使用了SpaceX开发的推进器。

The companies already collaborate. In March, they announced Terafab, a joint semiconductor manufacturing project intended to produce chips for Tesla’s vehicles and humanoid robots and SpaceX’s planned AI satellites. SpaceX technologies have also been used in some Tesla products, including the new Roadster prototype, which uses SpaceX-developed thrusters.

市场研究公司The Futurum Group的首席技术顾问大卫·尼科尔森告诉BBC,合并似乎也符合马斯克长期以来殖民火星的雄心。马斯克此前曾概述计划,将特斯拉的擎天柱机器人搭乘SpaceX的星际飞船送往该行星。

David Nicholson, chief technology advisor at market research firm The Futurum Group, told the BBC that a merger also appears to align with Musk’s long-held ambition of colonizing Mars. Musk previously outlined plans to send Tesla’s Optimus robots to the planet aboard SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft.

合并还可能加强马斯克对特斯拉发展方向的影响力。巴克莱估计,SpaceX收购特斯拉可能使马斯克获得合并后公司约37%的股份,同时控制约56%的投票权。他目前控制着SpaceX约82%的投票权和特斯拉20%的投票权。这对股东来说可能既是好事也是风险,因为决策会变得更快,但制衡会更少。

A merger could also strengthen Musk’s influence over Tesla’s direction. Barclays estimated that a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla could give Musk around 37% of the combined company while controlling around 56% of its voting power. He currently controls around 82% of voting power at SpaceX and 20% at Tesla. That could represent either a benefit or a risk for shareholders, as decision-making would become faster but have fewer checks.

“我认为在SpaceX和特斯拉的问题上,人们谈论得不够的一点是:这里仍然存在巨大的关键人物风险,”晨星分析师戴维·塞克拉本月早些时候写道。“但愿埃隆·马斯克不会出什么事。”

“One thing I don’t think people talk enough about with SpaceX and Tesla as well: You do still have a huge amount of key-man risk here,” wrote Morningstar analyst David Sekera earlier this month. “God forbid anything were to happen to Elon Musk.”

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