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民主党主要超级政治行动委员会恳请捐助者提供更多资金,随着版图扩大A Major Democratic Super PAC Begs Donors for More Cash as the Map Expands

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民主党旗下的众议院主要超级政治行动委员会正敦促捐助者在中期选举最后冲刺阶段投入更多资金,并援引内部民调显示,一批深红选区已进入该党可争取范围。

The flagship Democratic House super PAC is urging donors to pony up more cash in the final sprint before the midterms, pointing to private polling showing a slew of deep-red House seats within the party’s reach.

众议院多数党政治行动委员会(HMP)在一份与《华盛顿太阳报》共享的私人备忘录中告诉捐助者,近期民调“显示,随着额外资源投入,更多拓展席位将进入可争取范围。”该备忘录包含13个选区的民调数据,这些选区在2024年大选中由特朗普以8至21个百分点的优势拿下,所有数据显示这些国会选战目前均处于误差范围内的胶着状态。

House Majority PAC told donors in a private memo, shared with The Washington Sun, that recent polling “shows that with additional resources, even more expansion seats are within reach.”The memo included polling data from 13 districts that President Donald Trump won by 8 to 21 percentage points in 2024, all of which shows those congressional races now in margin-of-error fights.

这份备忘录是民主党对夺回众议院控制权信心增强的最新佐证——同时也凸显了他们为抓住机遇所面临的财政制约。上周,民主党众议院竞选委员会(DCCC)也向捐助者发出类似呼吁,称根据《太阳报》看到的备忘录副本,“如果没有DCCC进一步投入,我们可能会错失可赢的选战。”

The memo is the latest evidence of Democrats’ increasing bullishness about their chance to retake the House — and the financial constraints they’re facing to capitalize on it. Last week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee made a similar plea to donors, arguing that “we could be leaving winnable races on the table without further investment from the DCCC,” according to a copy of the memo seen by The Sun.

HMP现在提出类似的募资理由:“我们的民调显示民主党能在这些选区具有竞争力,但要将这种潜力转化为更多胜利,需要资源在大选日最后冲刺阶段接触选民,并针对脆弱的共和党候选人提出论据。”民主党已警告数月称在筹款上处于劣势,9月初曾表示共和党的资金优势可能抵消共和党恶化的政治环境。这种差距在比较两党全国委员会账面资金时最为明显:扣除未偿债务后,共和党全国委员会(RNC)手握9700万美元,而民主党全国委员会(DNC)仅有400万美元。

HMP is now making a similar donor pitch: “Our polling shows that Democrats can compete in these districts, but translating that potential into additional victories will require resources to reach voters and make the case against vulnerable Republicans in the final sprint to Election Day.”Democrats have for months warned of a fundraising disadvantage against Republicans, saying in early September that the GOP’s financial edge could blunt Republicans’ deteriorating political environment. That disparity is felt most acutely when comparing the Republican National Committee’s $97 million cash on hand to the Democratic National Committee’s $4 million, when factoring in outstanding debt.

据广告追踪公司AdImpact统计,特朗普盟友的超级政治行动委员会自9月以来已在竞选广告上花费近2亿美元,特朗普本人在Truth Social发文称计划在竞选上投入4亿美元。

Trump’s allied super PACs have spent nearly $200 million on campaign advertising since September, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, and the president said in a Truth Social post that he planned to spend $400 million on the campaign.

但民主党众议院候选人在筹款方面守住了阵地,经常筹得比共和党对手更多的资金。HMP在第三季度也创下纪录,筹得2.3亿美元,但该超级政治行动委员会正在争取更多资金。

But House Democratic candidates have held their own in fundraising, frequently outraising their GOP counterparts. HMP, too, raised a record-breaking $230 million in the third quarter, but the PAC is pushing for more.

HMP备忘录中描述的民调显示,民主党候选人在六个选区领先至少1个百分点,为众议院战场的变化提供了更多证据。这也反映在电视广告预订的变化上。上周,与众议院共和党结盟的超级政治行动委员会“国会领导力基金”取消了为众议员玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯(共和党-爱荷华州)和汤姆·基恩(共和党-新泽西州)的防御性支出。周二,民主党众议院竞选委员会在亚利桑那州、俄亥俄州和南卡罗来纳州的三个特朗普2024年大胜的选区增加了支出。该民调备忘录聚焦了几场鲜为人知的竞选。

The polling described in HMP’s memo found Democratic candidates leading by at least 1 percentage point in six of the districts, offering up more evidence for the shifting House battlefield. That’s reflected in TV ad reservation changes, too. Last week, the House GOP-aligned super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund canceled its defensive spending for Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) and Tom Kean Jr. (R-New Jersey). On Tuesday, the DCCC added spending in three districts in Arizona, Ohio and South Carolina that Trump won handily in 2024. The polling memo spotlighted several under-the-radar races.

以密苏里州第2选区为例,特朗普在2024年在此以8个百分点的优势获胜。HMP备忘录称,其民调发现众议员安·瓦格纳(共和党-密苏里州)以1个百分点落后民主党人弗雷德·韦尔曼,后者上个季度筹款超过瓦格纳。据AdImpact称,周二,“国会领导力基金”投入65万美元购买广告助选瓦格纳。HMP目前尚未在该选区投入资金。

Take Missouri’s 2nd District, which Trump won by 8 percentage points in 2024. The HMP memo said its polling found Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Missouri) down by 1 point to Democrat Fred Wellman, who outraised Wagner last quarter. On Tuesday, CLF went up with a $650,000 ad buy to boost Wagner, according to AdImpact. HMP is not yet spending in the race.

另一个例子来自北卡罗来纳州,备忘录称民调发现众议员理查德·哈德森,即全国共和党国会委员会主席,仅以4个百分点领先其民主党挑战者理查德·奥赫达,后者是西弗吉尼亚州前州参议员和退伍军人。哈德森本月早些时候开始投放电视广告。特朗普在2024年在哈德森的选区以16个百分点的优势获胜。

Another example comes in North Carolina, where the memo said it found Rep. Richard Hudson, the National Republican Congressional Committee chair, up by only 4 percentage points over his Democratic challenger, Richard Ojeda, a former West Virginia state senator and veteran. Hudson started airing TV ads earlier this month. Trump won Hudson’s district by 16 percentage points in 2024.

在备忘录民调涉及的选区中,HMP已在其中六个选区投入资金,包括肯塔基州第6选区和佛罗里达州第13选区,特朗普在这两个选区均以两位数百分点获胜。

Of the districts polled in the memo, HMP is already spending in six of the districts, including Kentucky’s 6th District and Florida’s 13th District, both of which Trump won by double digits.

更正:本文早期版本误述了密苏里州第2选区的民调结果。民调显示瓦格纳落后1个百分点。

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misstated the poll finding in Missouri’s 2nd District. The poll found Wagner down 1 point.

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