
二十年来美国电力需求持平后开始攀升,各方正竞相寻找能够全天候运行、可靠供应日益“耗能”美经济所需电力的发电来源。
After two decades of flat demand, US electricity use is climbing and the race is on for generation sources that can operate around the clock and reliably deliver the power needed to run an increasingly energy-hungry US economy.
文/加文·马奎尔(Gavin Maguire) 风能和太阳能成本低廉但具有间歇性。天然气供应充裕,但新建管道和燃气轮机面临漫长延误。
By Gavin Maguire Wind and solar are cheap but intermittent. Natural gas supplies are abundant but there are long delays for new pipelines and the turbines needed to burn it.
燃煤电厂面临严格的环保限制,且难以廉价获取燃料;常规核电站和水电大坝造价高昂,建设周期往往长达十年以上。
Coal plants face tough environmental restrictions and are hard to supply cheaply, while conventional nuclear power plants and hydro dams are hugely expensive and often have decade-long construction time lines.
这导致对能够全天候可靠供电、且不留下化石燃料碳足迹的电力来源的需求与日俱增,也解释了为何新一代地热系统、先进核反应堆、浮体光伏阵列及其他新兴技术备受关注。
That leaves a growing need for power sources that can deliver reliable electricity around the clock without the carbon footprint of fossil fuels, and explains the rising interest in next-generation geothermal systems, advanced nuclear reactors, floating solar arrays and other emerging technologies.
以下是能源领域早期投资者关注的六大竞争者,从已验证到大胆构想均有涵盖,它们可能开启下一波可靠、低碳发电浪潮。
Here are six contenders, from the proven to the audacious, that are on the map of early investors in the energy space and could unlock the next wave of reliable, low-carbon power generation.
每一项都被吹捧为满足激增电力需求、同时不加深对化石燃料依赖的潜在解决方案,但也都面临关键未知数:一旦达到全面运营规模,其效果和经济性究竟如何。
Each has been touted as a potential solution to surging electricity demand without deepening dependence on fossil fuels, but also faces key unknowns about how effective and affordable they will be if they reach full operational scale.
Fervo Energy位于犹他州的Cape Station项目是全球首座实现商业运营的绿地增强型地热电厂,且抢占了先机。
Fervo Energy's Cape Station site in Utah is the first greenfield enhanced geothermal plant in the world to hit commercial operation, and it got there early.
Fervo利用石油天然气行业成熟的水平钻井和水力压裂技术,在原本不存在地热资源的地方创造地热资源。
Fervo uses horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques perfected by the oil and gas industry to create geothermal resources where they don't naturally exist.
关键未知数:随着Fervo拓展至新址,钻井成本能否持续下降?各项目能否提供高要求数据中心客户所需的可靠电力输出?
Key unknown: Can drilling costs keep falling as Fervo moves to new sites, and can each site deliver the reliable power flows needed for highly demanding data center consumers? TVA's Clinch River, Tennessee, site received the first US construction permit for a commercial small modular reactor (SMR), and is the test case for whether factory-built parts can overcome the nuclear industry's long-standing problems with cost overruns and construction delays.
田纳西河流域管理局(TVA)位于田纳西州克林奇河的场地获得了美国首个商用小型模块化反应堆(SMR)建设许可,并将成为检验工厂预制部件能否克服核电行业长期面临的成本超支和建设延期问题的试金石。
Key unknown: In theory, scalable nuclear reactors can deliver reliable clean power wherever it is needed.
关键未知数:理论上,可扩展的核反应堆能在任何需要的地方提供可靠的清洁电力。
But can developers perfect the modular off-site manufacturing, supply chains and construction methods needed to build reactors quickly and cheaply enough to compete with rapidly falling costs for renewable power, batteries and natural gas generation?
但开发商能否完善模块化场外制造、供应链和建设方法,以足够快、足够便宜的速度建造反应堆,从而与迅速下降的可再生能源、电池和天然气发电成本竞争?
If they can, SMRs could emerge as a major source of new electricity supply.
如果能做到,小型模块化反应堆可能成为新增电力供应的主要来源。
The Gila River Indian Community in Arizona built the first solar-over-canal project in the US, which generates power and slows water evaporation at the same time.
亚利桑那州的吉拉河印第安社区建成了美国首个“光伏覆盖运河”项目,该项目在发电的同时还能减缓水体蒸发。
Similar projects are attractive because they ensure that no farmland is lost to solar arrays while promising significant water savings in drought-prone areas.
此类项目颇具吸引力,因为它们确保农田不会被光伏阵列占用,同时在干旱易发地区承诺显著的节水效益。
Canal routes can also provide ready-made corridors for transmission and distribution infrastructure, potentially reducing development and permitting hurdles compared with greenfield solar projects.
运河线路还可为输配电基础设施提供现成走廊,与新建绿地光伏项目相比,有望减少开发和许可障碍。
Key unknown: The installation of solar arrays over bodies of water can cost substantially more than conventional systems, so can costs of deployment be steadily lowered to broaden their appeal?
关键未知数:在水体上方安装光伏阵列的成本可能远高于常规系统,那么部署成本能否稳步降低以扩大其吸引力?
TerraPower's Bill Gates-backed natrium reactor is being built beside an old coal plant in Kemmerer, Wyoming, and so can tap into already-existing grid connections once it is up and running.
比尔·盖茨支持的TerraPower公司的钠冷快堆正在怀俄明州肯默勒的一座老旧燃煤电厂旁建设,因此一旦投运即可利用现有的电网接入。
The sodium-cooled reactor combines rampable nuclear generation with molten-salt storage, which on paper will allow it to increase output when electricity demand peaks and pare back generation during consumption lulls.
这种钠冷反应堆将可调节的核能发电与熔盐储能相结合,理论上将使其能在用电高峰时增加出力,在用电低谷时减少发电量。
With several US coal plants facing end-of-life decommissioning decisions, the coal-to-nuclear narrative has broad social support and has strong job-creation potential in areas otherwise facing redundancy risks.
随着美国多座燃煤电厂面临寿命终结、需做出退役决定,煤改核叙事获得了广泛的社会支持,且在原本面临裁员风险的地区具有很强的创造就业潜力。
Key unknowns: Project completion is slated for 2030, which means it runs the risk of obsolescence if other projects get up and running first or if the complex first-of-its-kind Kemmerer undertaking runs into construction delays.
关键不确定因素:项目计划于2030年完工,这意味着如果其他项目率先投入运行,或者首创的肯默尔项目遭遇建设延误,该项目将面临过时风险。
Kairos Power's Hermes 2 reactor in Tennessee has gleaned a lot of early attention as it already has a customer lined up to pay for its power (Google) and can run at lower pressure than conventional reactors thanks to molten salt pebble cooling.
Kairos Power在田纳西州的Hermes 2反应堆早早引起广泛关注,因为它已锁定一位愿为其发电买单的客户(Google),且得益于熔盐卵石冷却技术,其运行压力可低于常规反应堆。
It is also being built at Oak Ridge, which was the primary home for the Manhattan Project and so has almost unrivaled pedigree in terms of nuclear tinkering expertise.
该反应堆还建在橡树岭,后者曾是曼哈顿计划的主要基地,因此在核技术钻研专长方面拥有近乎无可匹敌的底蕴。
Key unknowns: In addition to testing the modular construction theory facing other new reactor developers, the Hermes 2 plant needs specialized high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which is still scarce in the US.
关键不确定因素:除了要像其他新型反应堆开发商一样验证模块化建造理论,Hermes 2电厂还需要专用的高纯度低浓缩铀(HALEU),而这种燃料在美国目前仍属稀缺。
HALEU allows reactors to operate for longer between outages, and can deliver higher power density and use smaller reactor cores than older nuclear plants.
HALEU可使反应堆在两次停堆检修间隔期内运行更长时间,并能提供更高的功率密度、使用比老式核电站更小的反应堆堆芯。
However, Russia and China remain the only major suppliers of HALEU, and US government-supported firms have only recently begun efforts to create domestic supplies which require the construction of conversion facilities, fabrication plants and transportation infrastructure that may take years.
然而,俄罗斯和中国仍是HALEU仅有的两大主要供应国,美国政府扶持的企业只是近期才开始着手建立国内供应,这需要建设转化设施、燃料制造厂和运输基础设施,可能耗时数年。
Helion Energy's Orion is a planned 50-megawatt fusion power plant under construction in Chelan County, Washington.
Helion Energy的Orion是一座规划中的50兆瓦聚变电厂,正在华盛顿州切兰县建设。大多数聚变设计通过核反应产生热量,再烧水驱动汽轮机。
Most fusion designs work by generating heat from nuclear reactions, which then boils water to drive turbines. Helion is trying something different.
Helion尝试不同路径:其反应堆将以短脉冲方式产生并压缩等离子体,旨在通过磁场将产生的能量直接转化为电能,从而绕过传统的蒸汽轮机过程。
Its reactors will create and compress plasmas in short pulses and aim to convert the resulting energy directly into electricity through magnetic fields, bypassing the conventional steam-turbine process.
如果成功,该工艺可降低电厂复杂度,提高能量转换效率,并使更小型的反应堆得以部署该工艺。
If successful, the process could reduce plant complexity, improve energy-conversion rates and enable smaller reactors to deploy the process.
聚变电厂所需燃料也相对丰富(主要为氢同位素),美国多家研究机构已在该燃料的生成与储存方面积累了专业知识。
The fuel needed for fusion plants is also relatively abundant (mainly hydrogen isotopes), and several US research facilities have built up expertise in that fuel's generation and storage.
关键未知数在于:聚变已在实验中取得令人印象深刻的成果数十年,但尚无任何公司展示出能发电量超过耗电量的商用电厂。
Key unknowns: Fusion has produced impressive experimental results for decades, but no company has yet demonstrated a commercial power plant that generates more electricity than it consumes.
Helion 近期还将其最初预计的交付时间表从 2028 年推迟至可能 2030 年或更晚,这意味着 Orion 可能来不及满足一些要求最苛刻的潜在客户的需求。
Helion has also recently pushed back its initial estimated delivery timeline, which had been 2028, to potentially 2030 or later, which may mean Orion could arrive too late for some of the most demanding potential customers.
总而言之,这些项目都有望在发电领域实现革命性突破,并可能在未来几年将美国电力系统从短缺转变为富余,从而极大推动美国经济发展。
All told, these projects all offer potentially revolutionary breakthroughs in power generation, and could transform the US power system from one of scarcity to abundance that could supercharge the US economy in the following years.
部分项目已在售电,部分可能永远不会。其余项目将在 2030 年前揭晓答案。文中观点仅代表作者本人,作者为路透社专栏作家。
Some are already selling power, and some may never. The rest will tell us by 2030. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.