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与埃尔-赛义德对峙的那名共和党活动人士究竟错在哪里What the GOP activist who confronted El-Sayed really got wrong

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吉姆·冯德鲁斯卡/路透社Jim Vondruska/Reuters

大卫观点 如果阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德下个月赢得密歇根州参议员选举,周六那段他训斥一名共和党活动人士关于宗教自由的视频片段,将在其党内获得传奇地位。

David’s view If Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan’s Senate race next month, the Saturday clip of him admonishing a GOP activist about freedom of religion will achieve legendary status in his party.

“你才需要去理解宪法,不是我,”埃尔-赛义德在位于密歇根州的小城市卡罗出席活动时对托马斯·蒂佩尔说道。这位候选人接受了蒂佩尔“与穆斯林兄弟会划清界限”的挑战,随后谴责了这名活动人士似乎想要施加的“双重忠诚”污名化指控。

“It’s you who need to understand the Constitution, not me,” El-Sayed told Thomas Teepell during an appearance in the small Michigan city of Caro. The candidate accepted Teepell’s challenge to “disavow the Muslim Brotherhood,” then denounced the “dual loyalty” smear it seemed like the activist wanted to make.

如果埃尔-赛义德获胜,我预计共和党也会研究那段视频。这是因为保守派能汲取的教训并非埃尔-赛义德的宗教话题过于敏感碰不得。蒂佩尔之所以难以跟进,是因为他应付不了那个时刻。

If El-Sayed wins, I’d expect Republicans to study that clip, too. That’s because the lesson conservatives can take isn’t that the topic of El-Sayed’s religion is too hot to touch. Teepell struggled to follow up because he couldn’t handle the moment.

从唐纳德·特朗普总统以下,共和党非常习惯主张穆斯林移民威胁美国,自由派为多元化发起的十字军运动是国家自杀。他们热衷于拿埃尔-赛义德做攻击对象,即便在那49个他不在选票上的州也是如此。而且他们不再因担心政治反弹而噤声。

From President Donald Trump on down, Republicans are very comfortable contending that Muslim immigration threatens America and that the liberal crusade for diversity is national suicide. They love running against El-Sayed, even in the 49 states where he’s not on the ballot. And they don’t hold their tongues anymore for fear of political backlash.

“让他兴奋的是这样一种前景:掌握一个他憎恨的国家的权力,”副总统JD·万斯本月对密歇根州共和党人谈到埃尔-赛义德时说道。“他想用你们的税款去诉讼陈年旧怨,他想利用遥远国度的怨恨来惩罚你们。”这并非偏离共和党的中期选举信息。这正是信息所在:外国人正从内部瓦解美国,而民主党不会阻止他们。(别管埃尔-赛义德出生在罗切斯特希尔斯。)

“What excites him is this prospect of wielding the power of a country he hates,” Vice President JD Vance told Michigan Republicans about El-Sayed this month. “He wants to litigate ancient grievances with your tax dollars, and he wants to use the grievances of faraway lands to punish you.”This isn’t a swerve away from the GOP’s midterm message. It is the message: Foreigners are undermining America from within, and Democrats won’t stop them. (Never mind that El-Sayed was born in Rochester Hills.)

蒂佩尔完全符合特朗普时代共和党妖魔化“异己”的修辞策略。他出错的地方部分在于,未能与民主党政坛最善于即兴辩论的高手之一正面交锋。

Teepell was very much in line with the Trump-era Republican rhetorical strategy to demonize the “other.”Where he went wrong was, in part, failing to go toe to toe with one of the most skillful extemporaneous talkers in Democratic politics.

他还面临着一个新现实:特朗普政府关闭边境并叫停了大多数庇护申请,这使得“移民”对大多数选民而言不再那么关键。想把埃尔-赛义德描绘成敌人,根本没有他原本希望的那么容易。

He was also working against a new reality: The Trump administration’s border closure and shutdown of most asylum claims has made “immigration” less critical to most voters. Casting El-Sayed as the enemy simply wasn’t as easy as he might have hoped.

但更宏大的背景对“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)保守派更有利:既然没有民主党人主张恢复特朗普之前的边境政策,他们看到,那些曾被媒体把关人视为禁忌或冒犯的话题,如今也能赢得选举。埃尔-赛义德与蒂佩尔的交锋发生之际,巴黎正陷入骚乱;特朗普、白宫及支持他们的媒体机构警告称,民主党会把同样由移民引发的混乱带过大西洋。过去那些媒体把关的大门,或许早已不复存在。

But the bigger context is more favorable to MAGA conservatives: With no Democrat running on a return to pre-Trump border policies, they see that topics once considered forbidden or offensive by media gatekeepers can win elections. The El-Sayed-Teepell moment happened as Paris was gripped by riots; Trump, his White House, and supportive media outlets warned that Democrats would bring the same migration-driven chaos across the Atlantic. Those media gates of the past might not even be standing anymore.

2008年,这些大门还很坚固,当时共和党在种族和移民问题上竞选得更为谨慎。埃尔-赛义德乐于接受与贝拉克·奥巴马的比较,后者2008年的竞选让这位年轻的穆斯林相信,自己将来也能参选公职。

They were sturdy in 2008, when Republicans campaigned more cautiously around questions of race and immigration. El-Sayed has indulged comparisons to Barack Obama, whose 2008 campaign convinced the young Muslim that he could one day run for office.

在2020年的回忆录中,埃尔-赛义德写道,从密歇根大学毕业后,他拒绝了(毕业典礼演讲嘉宾比尔·克林顿提出的)他可能在政坛有前途这一想法。当然不可能:他的名字叫阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·穆罕默德·埃尔-赛义德。但一年后,“一位父亲从东非移民而来的人——一个有着滑稽名字和黑皮肤的人”,以16个百分点的优势赢下了密歇根州。

In his 2020 memoir, El-Sayed wrote that after he graduated from the University of Michigan, he brushed off the idea (floated by Bill Clinton, his commencement speaker) that he might have a future in politics. Of course not: His name was Abdulrahman Muhammad El-Sayed. But one year later, “someone whose father had immigrated from eastern Africa — someone who was marked by a funny name and dark skin,” won Michigan by 16 points.

某种东西已经改变、攻击伊斯兰教或外国名字不再奏效这一观念,贯穿了埃尔-赛义德2018年的竞选。在一次行程中,他被劳拉·卢默拦住盘问,当时卢默还是个半被“取消”的独立调查记者,她问他如何“调和你个人对伊斯兰教法的实践与你的马克思主义、社会主义政治纲领”。那次竞选轻松化解了卢默。如今,她已成为美国最具影响力的保守派活动家之一,与总统有直接联系。

The idea that something had changed, and that attacking Islam or a foreign name didn’t work anymore, ran through El-Sayed’s 2018 campaign. At one stop, he was buttonholed by Laura Loomer, then a semi-cancelled independent muckraker, who asked how he could “reconcile your own personal practice of Islamic law with your Marxist, socialist political platform.”Loomer was fairly easy for that campaign to brush off. She’s now one of the most influential conservative activists in America, with a direct line to the president.

布什执政时期的共和党人曾短暂希望建立一个持久的多种族联盟,因此不愿攻击奥巴马的牧师,也不愿炒作他是穆斯林的传言(“不,女士”)。在右翼看来,这现在被普遍认为是一种失败者的策略。

Republicans in the Bush years, who briefly hoped to build a lasting multiracial coalition, were hesitant to attack Obama over his pastor, or to elevate rumors that he was a Muslim. (“No, ma’am.“) On the right, it’s widely believed now that this was a loser’s strategy.

这就是为什么在右翼眼中,蒂珀尔最大的失误仅仅是缺乏有力的反击。如果共和党下个月大败,将会爆发一场推卸责任的混战——哪位顾问搞砸了,哪些广告浪费了钱,哪些议题不起作用。

That’s why Teepell’s biggest error, in the eyes of the right, was simply lacking a clapback. If Republicans lose big next month, there’ll be a brawl to assign blame — which consultants blew it, which ads wasted money, which issues didn’t work.

共和党在非白人选民和第一代美国人中的得票率在2024年有所提升,这将受到更严厉的审视。但我预计他们不会放弃像埃尔-赛义德对峙这样的策略,因为新媒体环境正是为这类策略量身打造的。

The party’s margins with non-white voters and first generation Americans, which improved in 2024, will get a harder look. But I wouldn’t expect them to ditch tactics like the El-Sayed confrontation, tactics that the new media environment is built for.

值得关注的是,马修·伊格莱西亚斯在《慢性无聊》中撰文,探讨了保守派内部关于“印度裔问题”的尖锐辩论,以及共和党关于移民的言论是否在损害他们。“你要么得咬紧牙关承认你渴望把优秀人才拒之门外,要么就得把优秀行为重新定义为恶劣行为。”

Notable In Slow Boring, Matthew Yglesias wrote about the edgy conservative debate over “the Indian question,” and whether Republican rhetoric about immigrants was hurting them. “You either need to be willing to bite the bullet and say you’re eager to keep good people out or else you need to redefine good behavior as bad.”

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