投资者可能对目前冲击债券市场部分板块的波动感到担忧，但贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德在接受CNBC独家专访时表示，他们拥有一个“历史性”的机会，可在优质信用债中锁定诱人的收益率。
Investors may be wary of the volatility hitting parts of the bond market right now, but they have an "historic" opportunity to grab attractive yields in high-quality credit, Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer for global fixed income, told CNBC in an exclusive interview.
他表示，假设情况下，投资者现在有可能构建一个分散化投资组合，其收益率超过7%，久期不足三年，平均信用评级为A-。久期是衡量债券价格对利率波动敏感程度的指标，剩余期限较短的债券往往久期较低。
Hypothetically, it's now possible for investors to build a diversified portfolio that yields more than 7% with less than three years of duration and an average credit quality of A-, he said. Duration is a measurement of a bond's price sensitivity to fluctuations in rates, and issues with shorter maturities tend to have lower duration.
里德在周三发布的第四季度展望专访中说：“这不仅因为这些收益率处于历史性水平，而且这些收益率出现的唯一时刻，是当出现某种问题时，比如经济问题或违约问题。”
"Not only is it historic in that these yields are where they are, but the only time these yields are ever here is when there's some problem, like an economic problem or default problem," Rieder said in an interview about his fourth-quarter outlook, released Wednesday.
他表示，目前并非这种情况，经济依然强劲。“所以你不必真正担心任何重大违约风险。”虽然里德未具体点出上述投资组合中的债券，但iShares Aaa - A 级公司债券ETF（代码QLTA）的30天SEC收益率为5.68%，有效久期为6.48年——高于里德关注的低久期范围。
That isn't the case now, where the economy remains strong, he said. "So you don't really have to worry about defaults of any significance." While Rieder didn't specifically identify the credits in the aforementioned portfolio, the iShares Aaa - A Rated Corporate Bond ETF (QLTA) has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.68% and an effective duration of 6.48 years — higher than Rieder's low duration focus.
由里德管理的iShares 灵活收益主动型ETF（代码BINC）的30天SEC收益率为5.66%，三年有效久期，但其投资组合超出了投资级信用债范围。
The iShares Flexible Income Active ETF (BINC), which is managed by Rieder, has a 5.66% 30-day SEC yield and three-year effective duration, but its portfolio extends beyond investment-grade credit.
超大规模数据中心运营商是最佳机会 里德认为，目前最佳机会在于投资级公司债券——他指出，自己“已经很长一段时间没这么说了”。投资级债券在标普和惠誉的评级为AAA至BBB-，在穆迪的评级为Aaa至Baa3。
Best opportunities include hyperscalers Rieder sees the best opportunity right now in investment-grade corporate bonds — which he pointed out he hasn't said "in a really long time." Investment grade bonds are rated AAA through BBB- by S&P and Fitch, while Moody's rates them Aaa through Baa3.
这其中包括超大规模云服务商债券，这些债券今年大量涌入市场，因为这些公司正在加大AI基础设施投入。根据LSEG的数据，截至10月20日，Alphabet、Amazon、Meta Platforms和Oracle今年以来共发行了约2284亿美元的债券。
That includes hyperscaler bonds, which have flooded the market with issuance this year as they ramp up their AI infrastructure. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Oracle have issued a total of about $228.4 billion in bonds year to date, as of Oct. 20, according to LSEG.
“它们的杠杆率非常低，现金流非常充裕，”Rieder在谈到超大规模云服务商整体时表示。“现在你可以购买这些更高质量的实体，它们为你提供非常有吸引力的收益率。”Rieder旗下的iShares Flexible Income Active ETF已将其投资级企业债配置比例提高至投资组合的14.3%，而7月份这一比例为8.5%。
"They're very low leverage. They have tremendous amounts of cash flow coming in," Rieder said of the hyperscalers in general. "You're now getting to buy these entities which are higher quality, paying you a very attractive yield to get it." Rieder's iShares Flexible Income Active ETF has upped its allocation to investment-grade corporates to 14.3% of its portfolio. In July, that stood at 8.5%.
不过，他建议投资者需要耐心，保持不动，因为利率从这里仍有可能进一步上升。
That said, investors need to be patient and sit tight since rates could still move higher from here, he advised.
“你的起点是衡量未来回报的最佳指标，”他指出。“所以如果你得到七又四分之一，也许会得到八，也许会得到六，但……如果你的持有期是一年或更长，你将获得该收益率。”他还警告称，在投资级信用之外也应谨慎行事，这需要更多的选择性和深入研究。这包括AI相关标的。
"Your starting point is by far your best barometer of what your return is going to be," he noted. "So if you get seven and a quarter, maybe you get eight, maybe you get six, but ... if your holding period is a year or longer, you're going to get that yield." Caution should also be exercised outside of investment-grade credit, which requires more selectivity and deep research, he warned. That includes AI names.
“部分数据中心供应并非由超大规模云服务商担保或支持，”他说。“我们对此一直比较谨慎，并将继续保持谨慎。”随着投资者对一些公司为资助其人工智能建设而承担的巨额债务日益担忧，债券市场，尤其是高收益信用市场，已受到动摇。
"There's parts of the data center supply that's not hyperscaler guaranteed or hyperscaler backed," he said. "That we've been more cautious around, and we'll continue to be." The bond market, particularly high-yield credit, has been rocked as investor concern grows over the massive amount of debt some companies are taking out to fund their artificial intelligence build-out.
垃圾评级的CoreWeave已成为典型案例，其股价下跌、债券收益率飙升、信用违约互换利差扩大。Oracle也受到了一些冲击，该公司处于投资级的较低端，并被视为更广泛AI市场的风向标。
Junk-rated CoreWeave has become the poster child, seeing its stock drop, bond yields jump and credit-default spreads widen. Oracle, which is sitting in the lower end of investment grade and is seen as a bellwether on the broader AI market, has also taken some hits.
美联储观察 里德也在密切关注美联储，预计美联储将在12月再次加息联邦基金利率以对抗通胀。根据芝商所美联储观察工具，市场目前预计央行届时加息的概率近90%。
Fed watch Rieder is also keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to raise its federal funds rate again in December to combat inflation. The market is currently pricing in a nearly 90% probability that the central bank will hike at that time, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.
这位资金管理人预期加息将会发生，尽管他并不赞同。他表示，较高利率正在伤害经济的部分领域，如住房，却对其他领域影响不大——例如科技公司的资本支出，这已成为增长的主要驱动力。
The money manager expects that to happen, although he does not agree with it. Higher rates are hurting parts of the economy, like housing, while not having much of an impact on other areas — such as tech companies' capital expenditures, which have become a big driver of growth, he said.
“它们并非以隔夜拆借利率借款，”里德指出。“住房、信用卡、汽车贷款融资中存在大量浮动利率融资，这些领域已经承压。”他补充道，市场目前并将继续为进入市场的AI供给定价。
"They're not borrowing off the overnight funds rate," Rieder noted. "There's a lot of floating rate finance in housing, credit card, auto loan finance, and you're seeing those areas already under pressure." Instead, the market is and will continue to price the AI supply coming into the market, he added.
提前核算风险 里德看到前方存在多项潜在风险，包括全球政府债务水平上升。在美国，2026财年预算赤字已增至2万亿美元。
Calculating risks ahead Rieder sees a number of possible risks ahead, including rising levels of government debt across the globe. In the United States, the budget deficit has grown to $2 trillion for fiscal 2026.
“央行加息越多，这些已经负债累累的政府的债务成本就是我们必须随时警惕的问题，”他说。来自AI公司的债券供给也应予以关注。
"The more the central banks raise the rates, the cost of debt to these to already indebted governments is something we've got to be careful about over time," he said. Bond supply coming from AI companies should also be watched.
“随着供给量的增加——数据中心、超大规模数据中心——正在发生一定的挤出效应，”他说。“随着政府债券收益率走高，这是我们必须密切关注的。”与此同时，里德将继续享受高投资级债券收益率带来的回报，“并且会笑得很多，”他说。
"With the amount of supply that's coming — data center, hyperscaler — there's some crowding-out effect that's taking place," he said. "With government rates moving higher, that is something that we just got to keep an eye on." In the meantime, Rieder would just continue to reap the rewards of high investment-grade yields "and smile a lot," he said.