中国工业重镇广东被迫转回成本更高的天然气发电，以满足不断攀升的电力需求，此前厄尔尼诺天气模式削减了水电和风电出力。
China’s industrial heartland of Guangdong is being forced to turn back to costlier natural gas to meet rising electricity demand, after the El Niño weather pattern curtailed hydropower and wind output.
这个经济体量大致相当于西班牙的南方省份，正加紧重建燃料库存，而公用事业企业几乎别无选择，只能重启闲置的燃气机组，以填补清洁能源发电疲软留下的缺口。
The southern province, with an economy roughly the size of Spain, is hurrying to rebuild fuel stocks, while utilities are left with few options but to restart idled gas units to plug the hole left by weaker clean energy generation.
厄尔尼诺带来的干旱和风况变化，也是对广东部分放开的电力交易机制的一场考验，该机制旨在稳定电价并保护消费者免受通胀冲击。广东是北京推行的市场化体系的早期采行者，但如今因各类燃料短缺而陷入困境。
The dry spell and altered wind conditions brought by El Niño are also a test of Guangdong’s partially liberalized power trading regime, which has been designed to stabilize electricity prices and protect consumers from inflation. The province is an early adopter of a market system being pushed by Beijing, but now finds itself in a bind due to shortages of fuel from all sources.
据当地电网公司称，这个用电大省2026年前九个月用电量同比增长7.7%，此前8月因空调全开应对夏季酷热而创下纪录。年底工业用电需求预计将进一步增加。
The electricity-hungry province reported a 7.7% increase in usage in the first nine months of 2026, according to the local grid, after hitting a record in August as air-conditioners were cranked up to deal with the summer heat. The end of the year should bring even more demand for power from industry.
结果是，据Rystad Energy AS数据，本月现货电价较去年同期翻了两倍多，于10月18日攀升至每兆瓦时约810元人民币（约合121美元）。
The upshot is that spot electricity prices have more than tripled this month from a year earlier, climbing to about 810 yuan ($121) a megawatt-hour on Oct. 18, according to Rystad Energy AS.
Rystad表示，广东10月水电进口大幅下滑至26吉瓦，较9月下降19%，较8月水平低28%，风电出力也有所下降。
Rystad said Guangdong’s hydropower imports fell sharply in October to 26 gigawatts, a drop of 19% from September and 28% below August’s level, while wind output also declined.
厄尔尼诺并非电力供应的唯一制约因素。燃煤和核电机组的季节性检修也产生了影响。5月山西矿难的余波总体上阻碍了煤炭供应。液化天然气向来是更昂贵的选择，因波斯湾战事导致其供应不畅，该地区集中了大量产能。
El Niño isn’t the only constraint on power supplies. Seasonal maintenance at coal-fired and nuclear plants has also had an impact. The availability of coal generally has been hampered by the fallout from the Shanxi mine disaster in May. Liquefied natural gas, always a pricier option, isn’t flowing freely because of the war in the Persian Gulf where so much production is based.
广东因其沿海位置的历史遗留问题，发电厂燃气消耗量超过其他地区，因此特别容易受到全球供应中断的影响。煤电在该省电力结构中占比约30%居首位，天然气紧随其后，约占20%。尽管如此，天然气目前已成为发电供应商较好的选择之一。
Guangdong is particularly vulnerable to global supply disruptions because its power plants consume more gas than other regions, a legacy of its coastal location. While coal leads with around 30% of the province’s power mix, natural gas isn’t far behind at about 20%. Still, gas is now among the better options for power suppliers.
瑞斯达能源分析师邓思萌表示，煤电机组主要用于提供基荷电力，而燃气电厂通过在高峰时段满足需求，正日益成为决定市场价格的关键因素。
While coal generators are being used to deliver baseload power, gas plants are increasingly setting the market price by meeting demand during peak hours, said Rystad analyst Deng Simeng.
银河期货在一份研报中指出，随着该省高科技出口企业为填补圣诞订单而加紧生产，这些高位价格有望在第四季度持续。广东的状况也可能促使对市场化定价规则进行重新思考。
Those elevated prices are likely to persist in the fourth quarter as the province’s high-tech exporters gear up to fill Christmas orders, Galaxy Futures Co. said in a note. Conditions in Guangdong could also prompt a rethink of the rules governing market-based pricing.
地方监管部门通过锁定大部分年度双边合同供应，使居民和工业用户免受更高电力成本的冲击。然而，为履行这些合同而采购电力的交易商，却深陷价格飙升的风险敞口之中。
Local regulators have shielded households and industry from higher electricity costs by locking in most supply through bilateral annual contracts. However, traders buying power to meet those contracts have been been left heavily exposed to the surge in prices.
E&C Group能源顾问冯莎伦表示，虽然广东的紧张供应局面尚可控，但监管部门可能不得不修订规则，降低强制性固定费率合同的比例，并允许零售价格反映市场基本面。
While Guangdong’s tight supply situation is manageable, regulators may have to revise the rules by reducing the share of mandatory fixed-rate contracts and allowing retail prices to reflect market fundamentals, said Sharon Feng, an energy consultant with E&C Group.
据广东电力交易中心数据，上半年该省500家左右的售电公司中，约60%因交易亏损。
About 60% of the province’s 500 or so power retailers incurred losses from trading in the first half of the year, according to the Guangdong Power Exchange.
据财新报道，在供应中国南方大部分水电的邻省广西，一群国有售电公司上月联合向政府请愿，要求暂停已变得不具经济性的合同。
In neighboring Guangxi, which supplies much of the hydropower in southern China, a group of state-owned retailers banded together last month to petition the government to suspend contracts that had become uneconomic, according to Caixin.