社会保障正走向资不抵债，促使立法者和专家寻找解决其长期财政问题的办法。
Social Security is on the path to insolvency, prompting lawmakers and experts to hunt for ways to address its long-term finances.
该计划支付的福利已超过其收到的税收收入。几年内，丰年积累的储备将耗尽，引发福利削减超过 20% 的前景。国会无人预期这种情况会发生。但国会尚未想出替代方案。
The program already spends more on benefits than it receives in tax revenue. Within a few years, reserves built up in flush years will be exhausted, raising the prospect of benefit cuts that exceed 20%. No one in Congress expects that to happen. But Congress hasn’t figured out what to do instead.
除了单纯增加借贷，或考虑参议员比尔·卡西迪（共和党-路易斯安那州）提出的投资基金等破题思路以增强长期偿付能力外，立法者在现行计划框架内还有一堆选项。他们可以降低福利水平、提高退休年龄，也可以扩大工资税征收范围。社会保障精算师提供数十种不同思路的年度影响估算。
Beyond just borrowing more or considering outside-the-box ideas such as an investment fund offered by Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.) to bolster long-run solvency, lawmakers have a bunch of options within the current confines of the program. They can lower benefit levels and raise retirement ages. They can expand payroll taxes. Social Security’s actuaries provide annual estimates of the effects of dozens of different ideas.
以下梳理其中部分思路，展示它们在多大程度上缩小社会保障 75 年缺口——以及能否、推迟多久资不抵债日期。
Here’s a look at some of those ideas, showing how far they go to narrow Social Security’s 75-year shortfall—and how long they postpone the insolvency date, if at all.
社会保障的终极答案很可能包含多项拼凑在一起的提案——或许还伴随额外借贷。越早行动，留给变革生效的时间越多，但立法者距离做出决定还很远。
The ultimate answer on Social Security will probably include many proposals stapled together—and perhaps additional borrowing. Acting sooner would give more time for changes to take effect, but lawmakers are a long way from making decisions.
由于国会往往不愿削减退休人员或即将退休人群的福利，许多在政治上可行的成本端调整因逐步推行，并不会推迟资不抵债日期。
Because Congress is often reluctant to reduce benefits for retirees or people approaching retirement, many politically plausible changes to Social Security’s costs don’t delay the insolvency date because they are phased in gradually.
除本文展示的情景外，您也可自行查阅社会保障精算师的估算。其他机构，包括负责任联邦预算委员会，也有自己的自助测算工具。
In addition to the scenarios we illustrate here, you can look at the Social Security actuary’s estimates yourself. And other groups, including the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, have their own do-it-yourself tools.