雷吉娜·加西亚·卡诺，科林·宾克利一个单一的数字让委内瑞拉区别于世界其他国家：3030亿桶所谓的“已探明石油储量”。但专家表示，该国的估算本质上存在问题，远未达到“已探明”标准——其根源在于腐败政府夸大且陈旧的数据。
REGINA GARCIA CANO, COLLIN BINKLEY A single figure sets Venezuela apart from the rest of the world: 303 billion barrels of so-called proven oil reserves . But experts say the country’s estimate is inherently problematic and far from proven — rooted in exaggerated, aging data from a corrupt government.
这一数字长期以来一直被政客和投资者宣传为衡量未开发能源潜力的重要指标，最近一次是特朗普政府在详述一项由美国控制部分委内瑞拉储量的全面协议时引用的。
The number has long been touted by politicians and investors as an important measure of untapped energy potential, most recently by President Donald Trump’s administration in detailing a sweeping deal for the U.S. to take control of some Venezuelan reserves .
但据半打专家向美联社透露，该国已探明储量的更现实估算——这一黄金标准指标代表在当前条件下可合理开采的石油量——约为其报告数字的三分之一。他们将可能的数字定在600亿至1200亿桶之间，虽然数量巨大，但不足以让委内瑞拉继续保持世界最大储量持有国的地位。
But a more realistic estimate of the country’s proven reserves — a gold standard metric, representing the amount of oil that can reasonably be extracted under current conditions — is about one-third of what it has reported, half a dozen experts told The Associated Press. They put the likely figure at 60 to 120 billion barrels, a vast amount but not enough for Venezuela to remain the world’s largest holder of reserves.
这一区别至关重要，因为委内瑞拉和美国正试图吸引新投资进入该国破败的石油工业，这表明特朗普8月宣布的协议声称美国最终将控制委内瑞拉超过650亿桶已探明石油储量，其盈利能力远低于他所断言的。
The distinction is an important one as Venezuela and the U.S. attempt to attract new investment into the country’s dilapidated oil industry , and it suggests that the deal Trump announced in August claiming the U.S. would ultimately control more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves is much less profitable than he asserted.
现定居休斯顿的委内瑞拉前能源官员埃瓦南·罗梅罗谈到该协议时说：“这是一个滑稽、滑稽的提议。”他补充说，他认为特朗普政府在介入前并未充分调查这个南美国家的主张。“如果美国政府打电话给他们，要求他们证明计算程序——全世界都会知道那是个滑稽的数字，彻头彻尾的谎言。”委内瑞拉政府未回应美联社的置评请求。
“That’s a funny, funny proposal,” Evanan Romero, a former Venezuela energy official now based in Houston, said of the deal, adding that he believes the Trump administration didn’t fully research the South American country’s claims before wading in. “If the U.S. government called them and asked them to testify to how they did the procedure — well, the whole world will know that that’s a funny number, an absolute lie.”Venezuela’s government didn’t respond to a request for comment from AP.
特朗普表示，根据该协议，美国将控制650亿桶已探明储量——这一数字超过了美国原油储量的总和。他多次援引650亿桶这一数字，并称这项石油协议是史上最大的协议，是补充美国战略储备、降低伊朗战争期间飙升的汽油价格的途径。
Trump has said that under the deal, the U.S. will control 65 billion barrels of proven reserves — a figure exceeding the entirety of U.S. crude reserves . He’s repeatedly cited the 65 billion barrels number and called the oil deal the biggest in history, a way to refill U.S. strategic reserves and lower gas prices that surged during the Iran war .
但专家表示，美国获得的是一批要么接近枯竭、要么完全未开发的混合油田，预期产量只是特朗普所宣称的一小部分。其中一些油田位于奥里诺科重油带的深处，那里实际上是委内瑞拉中东部的一片荒野，构成重大技术挑战。
But experts say the U.S. is gaining access to a mix of sites that are nearly depleted or totally undeveloped, with an expected output a fraction of what Trump claimed. Some of the oil fields are deep within the Orinoco Belt , a virtual wilderness in central-eastern Venezuela posing major technical challenges.
“我们无法相信650亿这个数字。这不可能，”罗梅罗说，并补充说一些公司已因困难而放弃了这些油田。
“We cannot believe the 65 billion. It’s impossible,” Romero said, adding that some firms have abandoned these fields because of the difficulties.
白宫尚未公开披露其如何得出650亿这一数字，也未回答美联社的提问。白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯的一份声明为这项协议和特朗普的说法进行了辩护。
The White House hasn’t publicly disclosed how it arrived at the 65 billion figure and didn’t answer questions from AP. A statement from White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers defended the deal and Trump’s assertions.
“这项历史性协议标志着在多年恶性通胀、几乎无新投资之后稳定委内瑞拉经济的重要一步，同时使美国的石油储量增加一倍以上，”罗杰斯说。
“This historic deal marks a major step toward stabilizing Venezuela’s economy after years of hyperinflation and almost no new investment, while more than doubling the United States’ oil reserves,” Rogers said.
前西戈公司董事长路易莎·帕拉西奥斯表示，她怀疑政府公布的数字代表的是地下蕴藏的石油，而非已探明储量。她说，在这种情况下，已探明储量可能约为650亿的5%，即约32亿桶。
Luisa Palacios, a former Citgo chair, said she suspects the figure announced by the administration represents oil stored underground, not proven reserves. Under that scenario, she said, the proven reserves would probably be about 5% of 65 billion, or around 3.2 billion.
“这650亿桶是假设20%的采收率吗？”帕拉西奥斯说，她现在是哥伦比亚大学的能源研究员。“这是我无法确定的。所以这正是围绕它存在疑问的原因。”莱斯大学的委内瑞拉石油专家弗朗西斯科·莫纳尔迪估计，短期内将有100亿至150亿桶被归类为已探明储量——远低于特朗普的估计。
“Is that 65 billion barrels assuming a 20% recovery rate?” said Palacios, now an energy researcher at Columbia University. “That’s the thing that I cannot say. And so that’s why there are questions around it.”Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan oil expert at Rice University, estimated that 10 billion to 15 billion barrels would be classified as proven reserves in the short term — far short of Trump’s estimate.
据两国官员透露，美国将控制的石油位于17个油田，这些油田由美国与委内瑞拉的北美蓝色能源合作伙伴公司（NABEP）组建的合资企业控制。
The oil the U.S. would control, according to officials in both countries, is in 17 fields under the control of a joint venture between the U.S. and Venezuela-based North American Blue Energy Partners, or NABEP.
上市石油公司必须在年报中，依据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提供的严格定义，报告探明储量估算。NABEP并非上市公司。
Publicly traded oil companies are required to report estimates of proven reserves in annual reports using strict definitions provided by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. NABEP isn’t publicly traded.
委内瑞拉声称拥有超过3030亿桶储量的计算工作始于十多年前。
The calculations behind Venezuela’s claim of more than 303 billion reserve barrels began over a decade ago.
2000年代中期，时任总统乌戈·查韦斯着手统计奥里诺科油带的储量，当时全球油价上涨，政府支出几乎不受限制。这项工作持续了数年，委内瑞拉邀请巴西、伊朗、中国、西班牙等国的国有公司协助计算储量，并聘请了一家美国公司进行研究。
In the mid-2000s, then-President Hugo Chávez set out to tally reserves in the Orinoco Belt, amid increasing global oil prices and virtually unrestricted government spending. It became a multiyear effort, with state-owned companies from Brazil, Iran, China, Spain and other countries invited to help calculate the reserves, and a U.S.-based firm hired to study them.
但政府从未对结论提供详细解释。自那时起，一些专家和观察人士便对这些数据提出质疑。
But the government never provided detailed explanations for the conclusions. Some experts and observers have questioned them since.
“这些是查韦斯和他当时的能源部长炮制出来的滑稽数字，”罗梅罗说。
“Those were funny numbers that were cooked by Hugo Chávez and his minister of energy at that time,” Romero said.
莫纳尔迪表示赞同：“这些数据被夸大了近三倍。”查韦斯聘请的那家美国公司估算奥里诺科油带地下蕴藏石油超过1万亿桶，但从未计算其探明储量，即有90%把握可开采的数量。查韦斯政府自行进行了这一计算。该公司——莱德·斯科特公司——拒绝为该数字背书，最终放弃了这项工作，并未就此向美联社置评。
Monaldi agreed: “They are inflated by a factor of nearly three.”The U.S.-based firm hired by Chávez estimated Venezuela had more than 1 trillion barrels of oil under the Orinoco Belt’s surface but never calculated its proven reserves, or the amount with a 90% chance of being extracted. Chávez’s government made that calculation itself. The firm, Ryder Scott, refused to sign off on the figure, ultimately abandoning its work, and didn’t provide comment to AP.
在2011年的年度报告中，委内瑞拉的国有石油公司表示，其已探明石油储量惊人地增加了820亿桶，达到了近3000亿桶。该公司（Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.，简称PDVSA）将这一增长归因于“对石油开采效率的重新评估”。然而，PDVSA并未提供更多详细信息；多年来，该公司的运营情况、统计数据及财务状况一直被严格保密。
In its 2011 annual report, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company said its proven reserves jumped by a stunning 82 billion barrels, to nearly 300 billion. The company — Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., or PDVSA — attributed it to “adjustments due to the revision of recovery” rates. PDVSA didn’t provide additional details; its operations, statistics and finances have been shrouded in secrecy for years.
由于这一巨大的储量增长，委内瑞拉在欧佩克（OPEC）的年度报告中超越了沙特阿拉伯，成为全球已探明石油储量最大的国家。
With that extraordinary jump, Venezuela surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest holder of proven reserves in OPEC’s annual reporting .
专家认为，目前委内瑞拉石油储量的实际开采效率约为10%；而在奥里诺科河（Orinoco）流域，这一效率更低，仅为5%至8%。奥里诺科河流域已成为现任总统德尔西·罗德里格斯（Delcy Rodríguez）及美国白宫的重点投资区域。
Experts believe an accurate recovery rate for Venezuela’s oil reserves today is about 10% overall and even lower — 5% to 8% — in the Orinoco Belt, which has become an investment priority for acting President Delcy Rodríguez and the White House.
该地区的石油粘度较高，难以自然流入油井。虽然可以通过先进技术提高石油开采效率，但这需要巨额投资——而在一个政府经常违约且局势不稳定的国家里，企业普遍不愿进行此类投资。罗德里格斯的任期已于7月结束，目前也尚未安排新的选举。
The oil there is thicker than most conventional crude; it doesn’t easily flow into wells. Producers could use advanced technology to increase the recovery rate, but that requires major investments, which companies are hesitant to make in a country led by a government with a history of breaking contracts and current instability. Rodríguez’s term expired in July, and no elections are scheduled.
自2011年以来，欧佩克一直认可委内瑞拉提供的储量数据，并将其列为全球已探明石油储量最大的国家。欧佩克由12个成员国组成，委内瑞拉是其创始成员之一；对于外界的评论请求，欧佩克并未予以回应。
OPEC has accepted the country’s proven reserves calculations and placed it atop the list of proven reserves every year since 2011. OPEC — comprising a dozen countries, with Venezuela as a founding member — didn’t respond to a request for comment.
欧佩克2026年的报告显示，委内瑞拉的已探明石油储量为3037亿桶，其中包括奥里诺科河流域及其他产油地区的储量。沙特阿拉伯以2670亿桶的储量位居第二，伊朗则以2080亿桶的储量排名第三。
OPEC’s 2026 report sets Venezuela’s proven reserves at 303.7 billion barrels, which includes reserves in the Orinoco Belt and other oil-producing regions. Saudi Arabia ranked No. 2, with 267 billion barrels, followed by Iran, with 208 billion.
尽管普遍存在怀疑，但“3000亿”这个数字却一直被沿用。查韦斯的两位继任者——现已被推翻的尼古拉斯·马杜罗和罗德里格斯——都曾多次引用这一数字。政治反对派也引用过这一数字，其中包括诺贝尔奖得主玛丽亚·科里娜·马查多。执政27年的执政党也利用这一数字，从中国和俄罗斯获得了数十亿美元的贷款。
Despite widespread skepticism, the 300 billion figure has stuck. Both Chávez’s successors — the now-deposed Nicolás Maduro and Rodríguez — have cited it repeatedly. So has the political opposition, including Nobel laureate María Corina Machado . The ruling party for 27 years also used the figure to secure multibillion-dollar loans from China and Russia.
专家表示，考虑在委内瑞拉投资的私人投资者将希望看到罗德里格斯政府提供准确的数据。他们表示，缺乏透明度只会增加投资者的犹豫。
Experts said private investors considering Venezuela options will want to see accurate data from Rodríguez’s government. The lack of transparency, they said, only adds to investors’ hesitation.
“任何一个国家报告的储备数字长期保持不变——这闻起来极其蹊跷，”莫纳尔迪说。
“Any country that reports a reserve figure that never changes over time — that smells extremely fishy,” Monaldi said.