
共和党正指望在最后关头注资,在距离选举日不足两周之际,为该党最脆弱的候选人提供助力。
Republicans are banking on last minute injections of cash to boost the party’s most vulnerable candidates less than two weeks out from Election Day.
特朗普总统周二宣布,其政治机构将斥资逾4亿美元支持共和党候选人,而共和党全国委员会(RNC)证实,正向为捍卫众议院和参议院多数席位而努力的团体拨付5000万美元。这项大规模支出行动正值民调显示共和党多数优势岌岌可危之际。
President Trump announced on Tuesday that his political operation will spend over $400 million to support GOP candidates, while the Republican National Committee (RNC) confirmed it is transferring $50 million into groups behind the efforts to defend the House and Senate majorities. The massive spending effort comes as polls show the Republican majority in an increasingly precarious position.
一位共和党战略家在要求匿名的情况下表示:“我宁愿处于势均力敌的局面,也不愿毫无胜算,但到了这个节骨眼上,无论是共和党还是民主党,光靠钱在某些胶着的竞选中都不足以率先冲过终点线,不过资金是其中的一环。”
“I’d rather have it in a toss-up situation than not, but at this point, it’s going to take more than money in either direction, Republican or Democrat, in some of these contested races to get through the finish line and get there first, but money is a part of that equation,” said one Republican strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
根据近期联邦选举委员会的备案文件,总统的“让美国再次伟大”超级政治行动委员会(MAGA Inc.)在过去六周内已支出2.77亿美元。
According to recent Federal Election Commission filings, the president’s MAGA Inc. super PAC has spent $277 million over the last six weeks.
共和党全国委员会从8月中旬至10月中旬,向全国共和党国会委员会(NRCC)和全国共和党参议员委员会(NRSC)拨付了逾4400万美元,两个委员会平分这笔资金。预计两个委员会在选举日前还将各自从共和党全国委员会获得600万美元。
The RNC moved over $44 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) from mid-August to mid-October. The two committees evenly split the funds. Both committees are also expected to receive $6 million more from the RNC before Election Day.
一些共和党人表示,他们本希望像“让美国再次伟大”超级政治行动委员会这样的团体能更早投入更多资金,并指出广告位价格在选举前会飙升。
Some Republicans have said they would have liked to see more spending from groups like MAGA Inc. sooner, noting that rates for advertising space spike before elections.
这位不愿具名的战略家说:“这总比没有强,但成本仍是候选人自购广告的两倍甚至更高。”
“It’s certainly better than nothing but it is still [two times] if not more the cost of a candidate ad,” the unnamed strategist said.
得益于夏季最高法院的一项裁决,推翻了对政党支出的限制,允许政党与竞选团队协调并无限额支出,共和党全国委员会向全国共和党国会委员会和全国共和党参议员委员会的注资得以实现。
The RNC’s infusion to the NRCC and NRSC is aided by a summer Supreme Court ruling that walked back restrictions on political party spending, allowing parties to coordinate and spend unlimited sums with campaigns.
“我们现在正积极且有策略地部署这些资金,以便在影响最大的时间和地点直接惠及我们的候选人,让共和党在全国关键战场竞选中拥有硬通货优势,”共和党全国委员会主席乔·格鲁特斯周二在宣布这笔拨款的声明中说。
“We’re now deploying it aggressively and strategically to directly benefit our candidates when and where it has the highest impact, giving Republicans the hard dollar edge in key battleground races across the country,” RNC Chairman Joe Gruters said in a statement announcing the transfer on Tuesday.
共和党人正在大举花钱,因为他们似乎正走向失去众议院控制权的结局,根据“决策台总部”(DDHQ)最新预测,共和党守住多数席位的概率仅为22%。他们在参议院的前景较好,但参议院也有56%的概率易手。
Republicans are spending big as they appear on track to lose the House, with just a 22 percent probability of holding the majority in the latest forecasts from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). Their chances are better in the Senate, but there’s a 56 percent probability the upper chamber could also slip away.
“库克政治报告”周二将11个众议院选区和两场参议院竞选的评级从共和党倾向方向调离,而仅将一场参议院竞选的评级从民主党倾向方向调离。
Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted its ratings of 11 House districts and two Senate contests away from the GOP, while they moved just one Senate race away from Democrats.
“一位新手政治观察员一个月前就会告诉你共和党将失去众议院,”这位不愿具名的共和党策略师说。观察人士称,特朗普在红州密集造势、为关键参议院竞选助选,并为长期被视为共和党铁票仓的选区防守,也是众议院多数席位已成定局失守的另一个迹象。
“Even a novice political observer would have told you a month ago Republicans were going to lose the House,” said the unnamed Republican strategist, Observers say another sign that the House majority is a lost cause comes from Trump’s blitz through red states to prop up candidates in key Senate races and play defense in districts long seen as lock-ups for the party.
在竞选途中,特朗普敦促其基本盘“假装我在选票上”,并承诺如果共和党保住两院控制权,将向美国成年人发放5000美元的“特朗普红利”。
Along the trail, Trump has urged his base to “pretend I’m on the ballot” and pledged $5,000 “Trump dividends” for U.S. adults if Republicans keep control of both chambers.
他在周二表示,自己已在中期选举中花费超过3亿美元用于“广告、直接和间接选民接触、集会、集会场馆、电话集会、动员投票计划、选举诚信等”,并计划到选举日前将支出增至400多亿美元。
He said on Tuesday that he’s already spent over $300 million on “Advertising, Direct and Indirect Voter Contact, Rallies, Rally Arenas, Telerallies, Get Out the Vote Programs, Election Integrity and more” in the midterms, with plans to spend upwards of $400 million by Election Day.
第二位共和党策略师表示,最后几周的资金激增肯定有帮助,但距离选举仅剩两周,“资金现在边际效益递减”,广告已达到“超饱和率”。
The closing-weeks cash surge could certainly help, said a second Republican strategist, but with just two weeks to go until the election, “money has diminishing returns right now” amid a “supersaturation rate” for ads.
“大部分电视广告时段已被买走。数字广告方面总还有选择,但地面竞选、某种拉票行动,能动员低投票倾向的选民,那将是关键或理想之举,只是我们现在已经太晚了,”这位策略师说。这迫使竞选操盘手在竞争进入白热化阶段时做出战略抉择。
“Most of the TV has been purchased. There’s always options for digital, but a ground game, some sort of a get-up-a-vote effort, which would turn out low propensity voters, would be key or ideal, but we’re just so late in the game,” the strategist said. That’s forcing campaign operatives to make strategic decisions as races come down to the wire.
DDHQ首席选举分析师杰弗里·斯凯利指出,近期有报道称共和党正从一些艰难的竞选中抽调资金,包括在新泽西州和爱荷华州关键众议院选区的削减开支。
Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst for DDHQ, pointed to recent reports that Republicans are pulling money out of some tough races, including cuts in battleground House districts in New Jersey and Iowa.
斯凯利说,此类举动可被解读为共和党“几乎是在承认他们将失去众议院控制权”。
Such moves could be interpreted as Republicans “almost admitting that they’re going to lose the House,” Skelley said.
斯凯利补充道:“广告支出和外部支出数据的难点在于,尤其是到了球赛这个阶段,这每一美元在预订广告时段方面的作用远不如从前大。……我们持续看到民主党候选人筹集的资金远多于共和党候选人。……与此同时,看吧,共和党肯定更有钱。”根据最新申报,共和党全国委员会(RNC)年初拥有高达1亿美元的现金优势,领先其民主党对应机构,但民主党候选人在第三季度募得巨款。
“The challenge with the sort of ad spending and outside spending data is that, especially this late in the ball game, that dollar is not going nearly as far in terms of booking ad time,” Skelley added. “And we have continued to see Democratic candidates raising a lot more money than Republican candidates. … At the same time, look, Republicans definitely have more money.”The RNC entered the year with a staggering $100 million cash advantage over its Democratic counterpart, but Democratic candidates pulled in massive third-quarter sums, according to the latest filings.
仅7月至9月,德克萨斯州民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在对阵特朗普背书的共和党人肯·帕克斯顿的竞选中筹得6400万美元;佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫(民主党-佐治亚州)在对阵特朗普背书的众议员迈克·柯林斯(共和党-佐治亚州)的竞选中筹得3300万美元。密歇根州民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在对阵前众议员迈克·罗杰斯(另一位特朗普提名人选)的竞选中也筹得3100万美元。
From July through September alone, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico raked in $64 million in his Texas race against Trump-backed Republican Ken Paxton, while Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) brought in $33 million against Trump-backed Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.). Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed also notched $31 million against former Rep. Mike Rogers, another Trump pick, in Michigan.
斯凯利在谈到共和党人和国会选区地图时说:“你要努力保住参议院的席位,而得克萨斯州的电视市场非常昂贵,你可以把数以百万计、数以百万计、数以百万计的美元砸向这个问题。”“这就好比,你当然会砸下数百万美元。但这能否从实质上改变选情,就更难说了。”
“You’re trying to defend the Senate, and well, you’ve got really expensive TV markets in Texas, and you’ve got millions and millions and millions of dollars that you can throw at the problem,” Skelley said of Republicans and the congressional map. “It’s like, well, of course you’re going to throw the millions. Whether or not it can work to substantively change the race is harder to say.”